458 Depreciation Curve

3 o'clock.

There have been a ton of 458's produced and they are currently in free fall. The hard tops are falling further (and perhaps a little more rapidly) than the drop tops. The 458 depreciation curve should closely mirror that of the 430's plus $20-$30K.

I seriously doubt the fact that the 458 is the last of the NA V8's will be enough to save the 458 from significant future depreciation. IMO i don't think the average 458 owner is overly concerned with the new 488 being a blown engine. Most current 458 owners will eventually make the move to 488 to have the latest and greatest (as long as it makes a reasonable noise when you press the "go pedal"). This mass movement will be the main force in driving the 458 value towards 6:00 o'clock.

Guys like me that are more discriminating enthusiasts that currently own Scuds, Speciale's, CS's will not be making the move and thus, will not be contributing to decreasing 458 values. I can't even imagine a current Speciale owner swapping to a 488.

 

I think this topic has already been beaten to death here

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/458-italia-488/487825-458-downward-price-trend.html

 

Looks like Alec is right.

By the end of the year, many must pay their first deposit for their 488 .... and will sell their 458 ... imo ...

 

+1

 

The early 430s were touching $125k in 2012 (7 years after debut), so would expect early 458s to get to $150k in 2017. Looks doable as there are a good number of 458s that can be bought today (ask minus 10%) for $180k.

 

Agree they have dropped significantly the past 3-4 months and I believe they will continue to move downwards as the 488 gets here.

 

The gap between the 430s and the 458s closes while the gap between 458s and 488s opens.

 

458s (late models 2014/2015) are still selling at a premium. I posted a thread stating I was going to sell my 2014 Italia for $265k and was told I would "hear Crickets" but some naysayer. Needless to say it sold for asking price in just under two weeks. Of course prices may fall once the 488 is out for a while and there are lots of them on the secondary market but I suspect we are at least 2 years away from that in the U.S.

 

I remember when the 360 was released. Some said it was "a breakthrough" design. Others hated it. Compared to the 355 it was a vast difference. The 355 was traditional, and frankly to some, beautiful to look at and enjoy. It also was described as having the most wonderful exhaust note of any Ferrari.

Some "had to have it" Ferrari owners had to have the newest technology and didn't mind the car's looks to get what objectively was a more capable machine. For a time the 355 resale value held strong as traditionalists preferred the "old" look. Then the reality of high upkeep costs, high parts prices and other things moved prices lower. Eventually the 355 was seen as just another used car, and an expensive one to keep. Prices bottomed and now they are on their way up, as "classic" cars are in demand.

I think in general the 458 will have the same fate. It will be cherished by those who don't like the new technology, eventually opinions will change, perhaps accelerated by the large number of 458s on the market, and prices will fall. And when the prices bottom, which may be quite a while in the future, the prices will again rise as the 458 is seen in historical context as a "breakthrough" car - taking Ferrari to another level. The lack of a manual transmission will likely not be an issue to future owners.

 

The day that any of these cars don't depreciate because the newer model is not accepted in mass is the day that Ferrari closes their doors! 458 wills depreciate just like all the rest and eventually will climb back up. The one thing it has working against it is the fact that their are so many out there. If you want a better chance at 458 collectable get the speciale!

 

Any idea of the production numbers of the 458? I suspect that they have become the most produced V8 of all time (other than maybe the 308/328 series).

 

+1

I know of a few Speciale owners that said they are not going to step into a 488.

 

here you go

Ferrari 458 Italia Price Trends - CarGurus

 

Those appear to be listing prices. A track of actual sale prices would reflect a much different curve I suspect.

 

It will be interesting to see exactly how the 488 effects prices. If the new car is selling for $300k+, it sure makes a $200k 458 quite appealing for many.

 

I think they'll get to about $150k for a 2010 and bottom out around there. Of course that's just a guess.

 

Ferrari is not even releasing those numbers anymore!!..Production of 308 328 was very low as compared to today..Ever since the 360 they they have not released production numbers have been increasing production more and more, so more 360s than 355s more 430s than 360s more 458s than 430s..These cars are not hand built like they use to be..and Ferrari is to increase production even further..

 

hasn't annual production for all cars been around 7k? I can't imagine that the 458 is significantly more produced than the 430 considering ferrari has even added the FF since then.

 

No..Think again.. I remember Back In early 70s They made only 1k cars annually in the late 90s they were only making around 3,000 something cars a year..In 2013 Ferrari Luca said He wanted No more than 7k annually..The Company would not listen to him..So,He left and they are now increasing production even further..

 

And their prices arent decreasing either, it's not really easy for their sellers to place all of these cars.

 

improvements and expansion to the factory since 2010 enable it to churn out 9-12,000 cars annually, whether they do/did or not that continues to be a mystery.

maybe when ferrari ipo's and things become public view, we will all finally find out what's what. I'm curious to know how much they really spend on f1 too and interesting to me, is allegedly 30% of Ferrari's revenue today comes from non-car activities...

During 08-09, numbers were limited to less than 5,000 annually due in large part to the recession.

Since then, it has obviously changed to meet growing and strong demand from all over the world (e.g. China) and MINIMUM production has been pegged to be AT LEAST 7,000 annually.

 

I thought Luca said Ferrari will limit production

 

Luca was retired...new era at Ferrari.