It seems the market has really changed

How about the stock market in general? Highest level in history yet we now have doubled up the debt since the early 90s. Makes no sense to me. I've invested strongly in the bull run over the past five yearsbut I'm out now. Time to start looking at alternatives.

 

+1. Good comments. Those in this thread(and on this board) who are 'in the biz' or own an Fcar are likely to be biased and unable(unlikely?) to view the car market accurately. Prices having gone up and the 'latest auction prices' don't reflect the fundamentals correctly. Turn on BJ or Mecum and find a car for sale that produces anything or throws off cash flow. Nada. At least real estate has tax advantages and rental potential. Cars? Nope. Ferraris? Nope, just money pits that are fun to drive.

Btw, "Fun to drive" <> "Good investment."

Yes, quantative easing, alternative investment $money$, zero interest rates ALL contribute to the run up in classic cars, but the reality of it is these are just cars, damnit. And, as the world shifts more and more away from 5-speed stick cars, and the 40 something crowd dries up, who's gonna be left propping up prices?

A real biggy here is that when(not if) the car market stalls, prices may not initially fade back much, but it'll be hard to impossible to SELL a car, as no one's gonna be stupid enough to buy. At least in the stock market, you may have to take a hit on price, but you can at least dump a stock, take the cap gains loss on your taxes and move on...try doing that with a Ferrari, after the market stops.

As the 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' book series hammers home, a 'Thing' is NOT an asset. An asset is something that either produces something or throws off cash flow. People unfortunately place all of their bets on 'thing' appreciation being the return on investment, when it's the wrong way to view this stuff.

I saw and lived through the late 80s-1990-ish bubble and it looks pretty much the same this time. Happening faster, due to internet, etc., but same hype, same crap. When I watch typical car auctions I fail to see why anyone would buy most of the stuff out there. Muscle cars? Gawd. I lived through the muscle car era and I saw Jeff Gordon express my sentiments perfectly on TV a while back: "I -like- the way old cars -look-, but I -like- the way newer cars -drive-." His way of saying the old stuff is crap, but does look neat. There ain't much from the 60s (and next to nothing from the 70s) that holds up to today's driving capabilities. Try driving a GTO through a corner(better hang on, baby). And, when the value of a '67 Stingray goes WAY up cuz it's a big block, that ain't a very good reason to drop investment $$$ on it. If you just want one, that's different. Buy it, drive it, but don't expect a return on investment.

Sorry to burst your bubbles, but Ferraris are just(fun) cars; they're not meant to be slot machines.

 

GTOs actually handle beautifully at least the 250s do. No experience with the 288

 

I meant U.S. GTOs...the muscle car kind...not Ferrari GTOs, which are a completely different discussion.

That paragraph was referring to U.S. muscle cars, that keep showing up in various auctions on TV.

 

ahh sorry missed that!

 

Exactly. The muscle car market had to move to differentiation by obscure options(big block, no A/C and radio, etc.) to prune the raw numbers down, while marques such as Ferrari can rely on actual production numbers.

And, all of this doesn't even take into account maintenance costs - el cheapo for 60s muscle cars, always expensive for Ferraris.

Also interesting are the discussions on Fchat about TR numbers. Wasn't that long ago that they were dirt cheap(relatively speaking ). Could be those will be the first Ferrari cars to stall when things slow down a bit.

I don't have a dawg in this hunt. I'm OUT and it doesn't really affect me much whether prices go up, down or sideways. If prices stall and perhaps drop a bit, I may get back in(always nice to have an F car in the garage), but if prices stay high or move higher, there's a LOT of other very nice machinery out there that interests me(more recent, used F cars, MBenz, BMW; hell, maybe a recent Aston could be pretty neat).

 

The party is already over, it ended in late march/April IMO based on US auction results that are out there . The only reason you're still seeing high asking prices here is because the dealers are still holding the 3.5x risers hostage. The auction results in the US are already showing a significant decline. At this point, the dealers can keep the cars hostage as long as they like. For eternity if they chose. Most of the cars in question are relatively large in production number and they won't delay the inevitable for long. Good luck swallowing up EVERY Countach, EVERY Testarossa, EVERY Air cooled Porsche, EVERY Dino, Every 308 that will come on the market in the next few years. Me thinks they're going to want nothing to do with these things when there are no sales taking place. Private party and more auction cars will slowly come on to the market, and the price will slowly but surely reset to the previous levels

 

All cars will become classics... In twenty years time come back to this thread if you're still around and there will be talk of 458's , 599's etc being the last of their breed and will be among the classics to own...

 

I remember when owning an old VW was a sign of desperation. When we shook our heads when somebody still drove a 1960's British car like a Triumph.

 

As the older generations die off it will always move up.

 

All cars will become old, definitely.

But the 458 and 599 are links in a long lines of computer/electronics-dependent cars going back to the 355. And the newer version will probably have even more of it.

My hunch is that the classics - by which I mean metal-bumpered, hand-made, analogue, carbureted Ferraris (and Porsches) will be a market segment distinct from the electronics-based products of the 1990s and onward. But, time will tell.

 

You're already seeing the manual transmission bump.

 

Sticks are where it's at. Enthusiasts have been screaming this for quite some time now and Ferrari doesn't seem to care. Just makes me wonder out of all the new car buyers, how many of them do care about that issue? I heard that they may be putting the manual in this Dino that they're talking about releasing. Should be interesting. I, among a slim few of others I've talked to have openly stated that any F car with no manual will never be purchased by the likes of us. Once they quit making them, I'm not buying them. As much as I like the 458, I'll never own one, regardless of how cheap they get. No manual, no dice.

 

You mean it was over in March when I sold my 1973 Carrera RS for a world record price?

You just put a post in the business section saying that gold is a safe bet yet talk about a huge crash in car prices coming down the pipe. Now, you've made multiple references to your college Econ professor so I assume that you actually graduated from college but I wonder if you paid attention. The same market where hard assets like gold are a safe bet are the environments where people buy cars for investments. If you say that cars are going to crash, then why is gold a safe bet? They're both hard assets that rise in low interest rate environments. Oh, and since you love gold as an asset right now, I guess you're saying that interest rates will go down (even though they're at zero) because when rates go up, gold goes down thus making it a crappy investment barring an economic or currency crisis of some sort.

I don't know who on here says prices are going to go up forever. I think that any true Ferrari owner knows that prices go up and they go down. It would be dumb to speculate that they're going to keep increasing exponentially but it would be equally as stupid to say that prices will crash to less than 60% of today's prices as you all imply.

What many of you don't realize is that there are lots of wealthy, wealthy Ferrari owners and buyers who buy the cars because they love them and if prices get cut in half, all that means to them is that they can buy even more and have an even more impressive collection.

There are undoubtedly parts of the market that are being manipulated and are overheated but most of the comments that say there is a massive bubble with an imminent market-wide crash coming (again, 60% or more is a crash) are from people who are pretty out of touch with the typical Ferrari owner and wealthy aficionado.

No one would be surprised at a 20% to 30% price correction but again, realize that a price change like that is irrelevant to most buyers and utterly irrelevant to anyone who bought a Ferrari for the love of the car, regardless of their financial position.

Again, those of you who only look at cars and buy (or never buy as with Proof69) only based on the monetary value truly miss out on the joy of owning these cars, which is the care and driving of them.

 

You're forgetting that when Ferrari was offering F1 and manuals in the 360, 430, 575 and 612, nobody bought manuals. So, not a lot of buyers wanted a stick. As a result, Ferrari moved on with new technology. Still, those of us who grew up with a manual want one and will pay a premium to get one.

There are more dynamics to the market than a transmission though. Return rates are low and cars were down after the recession. They had nowhere to go but up. I think certain cars have upside (rarity, classic design, etc) but a bunch of them are now overpriced. The Ford GT is one such car that got too high and now it's down a bit from the high. But relative to it's initial purchase price it is still priced strong.

 

Enthusiasts are "screaming" in car discussion boards, and yet there's a waiting list for these dual-clutch 488 GTBs that no one wants. Ditto Porsche with the 991 GT3 RS. The list filled up well before the paint was dry on the first one. Personally I would be ecstatic to have either of these parked next my 356 and 308.

Back on topic: Classics all still have three-pedal manuals, mechanical gauges, mechanical steering, etc. IMHO they will always move separately from the 1990s-on cars, because you can't duplicate a 1960s European sports car today. And... there really aren't that many of them, given the population of car enthusiasts in 2015.

 

This.

 

agreed...

Enthusiast screaming on message boards and even cars and coffee can be totally different than the actual buying public. Plenty of these enthusiasts drive off in there VW GTIs (with DSG transmissions)

If the enthusiast was actually voting with his wallet... BMW would offer a manual in the M5/M6 as the M divisions original ethos was all about the driving experience. Porsche 911 carrera S's would be in more demand than GT3s because they offer a manual transmission. Heck the regular 911 and cayman would be being purchased in manual transmissions vs PDKs... but they are not. PDKs rule the porsche world. And they will.

Lotus wouldn't be financially ruined if the enthusiast vote counted

Corvette Z06s wouldn't be offered with an AUTOMATIC

Umm... All of AMG... I am not even going to go there.

Per what every ferrari guy has been saying for the last 5 years... if you want 3 pedals or an entry level ferrari... buy a used one.

I think the porsche market just figured this out.

As soon as the stock market corrects... the porsche market will too. The porsche market has almost always been tied to the stock market in my opinion. I guess its just the demographic or target audience of the car.

The classic car market is far from slowing. The reserve at the big auctions is at a staggering 250k!!!!!!!!! World records are being set and great cars are bringing great money still! Its the froth that is going to get slaughtered. For example... every air cooled 911 ever made isn't worth tripple what it was a year ago. That might be what they are going for now... but not for long. The great cars will stay high... but the rest... they are headed for a correction

 

You are putting words into my mouth. I never said gold was a safe bet. I asked the question does anybody think gold would be an okay alternative investment? In which they said no. I also said it looks like the party ended LATE march/April. As many of the auction values show a decrease in prices on the higher production "modern classics." There's no way you're going to convince me that an average clean testarossa for example is worth 150,000 US dollars when a museum grade car with 500 miles on it can't even pull over 100 grand on ebay, and a 5k mile example can't even pull 70 grand on ebay. Congrats on your Porsche sale.

Ferrari Testarossa TR | eBay

http://www.ebay.com/itm/19880000-Ferrari-Testarossa-/252005827058?forcerrptr=true&hash=item3aacb7c1f2&item=252005827058&nma=true&si=ZjzdGGq16H1IO7vkxm%252FMqK9Yuic%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

Thank Gods we are not selling but keeping and enjoying our motors!

Price trends are difficult to see over a couple of months imho.

 

I agree with you on the "modern classics" but you can't rope those into the actual classics.

late 80s and later cars are not classics and should not be categorized in true classics including the muscle cars. Some muscle stuff is still very strong. the cars that aren't are the people who are like 1 of 14 built with yellow exterior and red interior with an auto, drum brakes and power steering... and head rests but no rear seat belts.... That **** is long over.

But 65 shelby GT350. Boss 429 L88s 63 fuelies etc... they are doing nothing but a steady climb.

I agree the 80s cars are completely over valued now... however I think they were undervalued a year or so ago. Correction will come... just not back to where they were. There are lots of guys speculating on the 911s and testaroassas... I think many will get burnt

 

Exactly, a Carrera RS from the 70s is indeed a classic. Testarossas have began phase 1 of flirting with the classic territory , but the supply is still too high. And the prices will go back to where they were (2012ish prices) if not lower. That's the way bubbles operate, there's no way around it. They are symmetrical in nature.