It seems the market has really changed

I've sat in an early Carrera RS and a 308 before. I recall getting more of a tingle from the Ferrari. Of course I didnt drive them, so I might have a different opinion if I had but even if the experience is close sensible people will buy the one that is a better value. Yes?

 

I didn't want to offend the elderly posters.

 

...

...

What many of you don't realize is that there are lots of wealthy, wealthy Ferrari owners and buyers who buy the cars because they love them and if prices get cut in half, all that means to them is that they can buy even more and have an even more impressive collection.

====>> What many of us DO realize is that all of those wealthy Ferrari buyers have had many years to buy whatever they wanted at lower prices than now. It's unlikely those same buyers are ponying up now that prices are way up. Therefore, the 'investors' and speculators are more likely to be in the game now.

There are undoubtedly parts of the market that are being manipulated and are overheated but most of the comments that say there is a massive bubble with an imminent market-wide crash coming (again, 60% or more is a crash) are from people who are pretty out of touch with the typical Ferrari owner and wealthy aficionado.

====>> Wealthy people didn't accumulate money by being stupid. If they think their car may go down substantially in value, they may dump now and rebuy later. Plus, those of us who aren't rich -have- to pay attention to the market now. Btw, a crash can occur with a dip a lot less than 60%...how 'bout 40%? 50%?

No one would be surprised at a 20% to 30% price correction but again, realize that a price change like that is irrelevant to most buyers and utterly irrelevant to anyone who bought a Ferrari for the love of the car, regardless of their financial position.

====>> Once again, most buyers are (apparently) not as rich as you seem to be. To them, money -does- matter. 20%, 30%, do factor into their decisions, no matter how much they like the cars. 20-30% may not matter to -you-, but it sure as hell does to a lot of the people on Fchat.

Again, those of you who only look at cars and buy (or never buy as with Proof69) only based on the monetary value truly miss out on the joy of owning these cars, which is the care and driving of them.

====>> Wrong again. Money does matter, in addition to the fun of driving. Check out some of the numerous "Should I sell now or hold or wait for more money later" threads ALL over Fchat.

You're either way too rich and out of touch or trying to justify what's going on in the market now. Portions of this move sure do look at lot like the late 80s into 1990...

 

What's clear about this is that you don't know the first thing about me. First of all, I worked ridiculously hard for my money and it kills me to lose even $100, let alone $100k. To hear you say that money must not matter to me is so far off base that anyone who reads your reply that knows me would laugh their ass off. However, what you and no one else seems to realize is that there is a difference between money and value.

I watched this whole thing unfold over the last five years and over the last 10 months I sold off all the cars that I didn't mind parting with. Yes, I had bought them a while before. Yes, they appreciated substantially. What happened when I sold the cars is that I realized the gains in value so I converted paper value into real money. However, I got offers double or triple for the cars that I still own and I won't part with them, even though I would be converting substantial paper value into significant real money. And I still won't care, regardless of how far the price may fall. The reason is because I love the cars, something that people who focus overwhelmingly on the value don't. And when your impending crash drops them to 50% of their current value, I won't care one bit because all I ever wanted was the car itself, not the money it would bring if I sold it and it appreciated. The car will still be the same thing to me regardless of its value. If the value drops to 10% of its current value, I will love it the exact same as I do today.

What you fail to realize is that if you don't ever sell a car then the monetary gain to you is ZERO. If you never realize any of those gains in paper value by selling, then you gain zero dollars. So if you buy a car today and you never sell it, how do you lose money when the value drops? You don't. If the car drops 30% in price but you were never planning on selling the car, how exactly does that change someone's life? Oh yeah, it doesn't.

You can't sell a car and just expect to rebuy it later. It's not a stock or bond. It's not a commodity. It's a special thing. It's like saying that you can just dump your girlfriend and date her again later when you feel like it. It doesn't happen that way and it's the sort of thing that no one who has a true passion for cars would ever say or do. If you sell it, it's to buy something else down the road, not the car you sold.

Lastly, you say that wealthy people must have obviously bought their cars long ago. Well, I know a lot of wealthy long time Ferrari collectors who have bought cars very recently and have no plans to sell. Do you know why? Because there have been cars they've been chasing that only came on the market in this environment. Are they going to say that they're not going to buy it now because the market is too frothy? Some of these are old men. They don't give one **** as to the value in the future because they won't be around to see it. But you can bet your ass that they want to spend as much time as they can enjoying the car.

Again, it's reading these sort of short sighted views by people who have no love or appreciation for the cars themselves but rather only for their value that makes many of the long time members on here livid with these threads and these commentaries.

 

If people are looking to take gains I wouldn't classify them as wealthy. The truly wealthy don't care.

I have to admit I've thought about selling my car. I'm not independently wealthy but at 45 and currently unemployed I could retire today if I wanted to. My car is rare enough that it's worth about triple what I paid for it. I'm sure I could put those funds to good use. I have a couple offers on the table and feel as if I'm too young to retire. I know if I sell the car it will be next to impossible to replace, unemployed or not, so I choose to keep it.

A lot of people in this thread have a macroeconomic view when the current pricing situation should be parsed with microeconomics. Yes, some cars are in a bubble and others have room to appreciate. Blanket statements lead to nobody being right and a more precise conversation is necessary at this point.

 

Haha. Also, these cars aren't ALL owned by big collectors anyway. There are plenty of cars that will come up for sale over the next few years for whatever reason. The building chatter is just proof of the bubble existing. The reason we're chatting more and more is becuase the uptick was so rapid and violent. If it weren't then nobody would be talking about it. I think We're at the end of the denial phase and are in the return to normal phase right now, and will be hitting the fear phase sometime in the near future. You'll know it is in the fear phase when you see the amount of cars that will be up for sale. There's going to be lots when the dummies who bought this stuff (brokers and flippers) too high try to sell out of necessity. Best of luck to them.
Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

Go read a book called "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor. It's the history of financial manias. It outlines exactly how these things work.

It's not for a lot of you, though, as it doesn't have any pictures.

I'll say it again: I am not saying, nor are most people saying, that the market will keep going up or even maintain it's current level with no correction at all. The point is that who the hell cares and why do you guys keep yammering on about a bubble and ripping on any of these guys who buy a car today. Let people do what they want. If they have the cash and the balls, let them do what they want and don't belittle them for their decisions. You don't have to pay the price, only them.

 

Absolutely right.

Case in point: I came from a very middle class back ground as an immigrant. I have gotten to a great place in life and I live a life that I couldn't have imagined. I know some truly wealthy car people and occasionally, our circles mix. Then my sister married a yacht captain and I went to some boat events. Anything that you think is expensive in cars is nothing when it comes to boats. There are tons of guys spending $3m a year just to keep a boat in the water. It's a straight loss and they don't give the slightest care. Then, through the course of my business, I met art people. Real art people. If you thought cars were expensive, and yachts were more expensive, then this is like another planet.

The point is that when you don't know what you don't know, then you really don't have a clue.

 

I'm just skimming through this thread, but this may be one of the best posts I've ever read on Fchat.



Mark

 

Sorry for having enough perspective that I can see the world beyond my front porch.

 

I am curious to what everyone on here thinks when autonomous electric cars start proliferating the highways.
Will petrol powered cars be sneered at and defaced? Will they become museum only pieces mandated by new legislation?

 

Eloquent posts, Bastuna. Very impressed.

 

I have very little to add to this thread...

I sooo hear you! Coming from Jadis tube gear and Michaelson & Austin Mono block Tube amps with 8 EL-34"s each pumping out 200w class A...I totally agree on the melodic and warm sound of tube gear.

I don't know this guy.....but I like him!

I drive my Ferrari Testarossa and Lamborghini Diablo VT Roadster as daily drivers. Every mile that ticks up, the value ticks down and.....I don't care.


Shamile

Freeze...Miami Vice!

 

Well, not exactly... :

* The tone of your post, as I read it, implies that the monetary value of these cars just doesn't matter to at lot(most?) of Fcar owners, when that's clearly not the case, as one can tell by reading various TR $$$ threads, 308/328 $$$ threads, etc. Clearly, money/value of the cars -is- a major concern for many on Fchat.

* You're certainly free to own/not own whatever cars you want. And, you can ignore the value of the cars, too. However, if we translated the potential drop that could happen in these cars to your house, how would you feel if your house dropped 40% in value? Gotta figure you love your house, too, righto? And, while you're correct that if one never sells a car, they technically never lose a dime, it's the unrealized value in the car that suffers, translated to the owner's bank account. Current value of a car really does matter, even if you think it doesn't. There are many posts here lately where owners say they're uncomfortable driving around in a highly valued classic Ferrari, compared to a few years ago when they were driving a used(Ferrari) car. Different mindset.

* One might not be able to sell and buy back the same exact car, but getting out of a Ferrari and back into another one is just a matter of patience + money. Lots of neat Ferraris out there and there'll always be something interesting up for sale, if you're looking.

* I did NOT say that wealthy people "must have obviously bought their cars long ago." What I said was that over the last several years, anyone who wanted to buy typical(read, 1980s-1990s) Ferraris had ample opportunity to do so, at very reasonable prices. What I meant here was that if $people$ wanted any of the usual stuff, they've probably already stocked up on 'em, so why would they have waited until NOW to suddenly add to the garage? Therefore, who's buying the cars at much higher prices NOW? Endless speculation on the board, but alternative investment folks, speculators and people with more money than brains come to mind.

* "lot of wealthy long time Ferrari collectors" who've recently bought Ferraris probably translates into a very small percentage of existing Ferrari owners. Sure, I saw Steve McQueen's 275 GTB at auction on TV over the weekend go for almost $10M, but that isn't the meat of the market. Great for someone who wanted it, but that ain't where the volume of the Fcar market is. 1970s, 80s, 90s is where the volume is, mainly cuz the older, super duper stuff was made in such small quantities.

* Blaming the messenger(ME ), ala, Bill Clinton in the early 1990s, doesn't change the message. With the entire car market WAY up, especially recently, mere mortals have to take into consideration the attainable value of these cars. That doesn't mean the cars aren't appreciated, etc., it just means that there's a point where most people have to think about the raw dollars, whether you want to admit it or not.

So, don't get bent outa shape at my comments - I'm not out to get you, but if you'll bother to read some of the many, many threads and posts here lately, you'll see that sky rocketing values have everyone's attention and most people can't ignore the value in their cars as you seem to be able to do. And, btw, there are many long time Fchat members that aren't 'livid' about the value posts. Rather, they face the reality of the situation and move on.

Consider this: if your favorite Fcar that you still own was suddenly worth $10M, would you sell it? Drive it less? Wonder if you can own it vs. cashing out if it meant a secure retirement? I'd bet you'd be thinking a little bit differently. I know I did, when the value of my former car became high enough that I could no longer ignore it. And, I'm not alone on this...

Back in the late 80s-1990, I remember reading something to the effect that Dyke Ridgley finally succumbed to the $$$ effect and sold a vintage Ferrari for something like $2.5M. Mighta been a 275 GTB, but I don't really remember the details. What I do remember thinking was that he got priced out, cuz at some point, the money really does matter.

We're just going through it all again, and it's gonna change the nature of Fchat, cuz many owners will sell their cars and the new owners may not be the type of people who'll get involved with Fchat and other Fcar groups. Just part of the biz, so get used to the idea.

 

Would love to give it a whirl, thanks for the recommendation

 

What he wrote in the book and the car he was driving when he passed away are a bit different.


BTW
I never saw the point on living the millionaire next door lifestyle to the extreme that it was portrayed in the book. I rather enjoy life a little more and be slightly poorer than.

 

Is being a millionaire that big of a deal anymore? Anyone who buys a new Ferrari these days (and I have an old one) is likely worth well over $1M. A 458 costs over 1/4 $M, and who would spend over 1/4 of his net worth on a car?