AFTER THE CRASH

If, and it's a big "if," I were to sell the 308 high, I'd just keep the TR and get a 911 as a DD.

 

I thought the 365GTS/4 has gone up recently- no?

 

It depends on your mission:

Modern Ferrari: 599 GTO or Enzo
Older Model: F40

 

246 Dino
Scud

 

288 GTO is the only car I covet

 

In this parallel universe I'd have sold my 308 before the crash and would buy another (but earlier) afterwards. I would test drive a carb BB before committing to the 308 again just in case I prefer that.

All other desired Ferraris would still be out of my range even after the crash I suspect... namely 288 GTO and F40.

 

They will settle at a number higher then before the sudden increase is my bet. Say an F40 was 700k before the bubble, I'll bet they sit at 800-900 and maybe touch 1 million for a garage queen delivery milage car.

Some Ferrari's will always be valuable, and command huge money. Others may tank really badly.

Anything and everything is always only worth what somebody is willing to pay. But in the car world, all it will take is one high end Ferrari to sell far below estimated market value, and well..you guys know the rest.

 

599 or F12. It will be nice to have a V12 with the V8.

 

Hard to resist the sound of an F12

 

Lamborghini Muira SV.

 

275 GTB

Is there a prettier car ever made with a more sexier engine sound?

 

This would ease the pain of fiscal meltdown!

365 GT 2+2

http://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/ferrari/365gt/1727004.html

T

 

We saw silver 275 GTB/4 outside of Chicago on Saturday. That's the first one I've seen in the wild. My god what a car. What a sound. What a lucky wrong turn we made!





Mark

 

I think a crash won't be as severe as people think because one of the main side effects of such crash would probably be even more printing of currency from major govs around the world. So in nominal terms--prices won't be much lower at all. In real terms they could be if there is real panic. This, incidentally, is part of the reason I think many people have flocked to "cash alternatives".

My two cents (one cent after the crash):

599: these cars are already very cheap for a Ferrari V12. If there is a "crash" maybe they go lower..but I don't see them going lower than low 100s. If no crash they are probably near bottom already and a bargain relative to new car alternatives.

Scud: OK, maybe in a crash they go down to 150K...but that will be at a large discount to many new less interesting cars. What would you rather have in your garage in 10 years? A Scud in 50K USD or a 991 Turbo S?

F12: that one has a long way to fall and will probably has more to suffer from modern ferrari frontenginitis (MFF). I think this one would be a great pickup if they fall and fall hard. There are already around 40 for sale right now.

458s. With around 350 on the market--if people need cash these things could crash hard.
275 GTB. Amazing car--but not too many for sale. Not sure collectors of these would feel they need to liquidate them.

 

Lets see, say i sold the BBi for 400k, then a crash.

like many would go for a 288 but realiticaly a speciale in grey, maybe a mint restored euro 308gt4 for the vintage feel or a 308qv.

 

No there isn't.

 

Yes, and even in a "crash" those are probably going to be $1M+ cars... genuinely rare and iconic. I'd like one, but with maybe 125 or so cars in existence I can't imagine there won't be enough 1 percenters around to soak up every one that comes on the market. It's a perennially rare care -- not a manufactured collectible. Also gorgeous.

Ditto the above.

What he said.

I think those are among the likeliest to continue their downward depreciation march once the current market hysteria subsides, so of all the hypotheticals in this thread these seem the least... hypothetical.

Market swings plus the gut clenching cost of spares as these cars age will probably weigh on them even if the vintage/classic cars hold up OK in a downturn.

My two lira...

 

I am a complete amateur when it comes to car collecting. Let's get that straight, right off the bat. That said, I do think that I have learned some things during my time in this hobby.

First, there are always buyers for good cars. I have received unsolicited offers and still receive them for every car I own. If I ever do decide to sell any of the cars I have now, which range from no chance to extremely unlikely, I have people who I promised I would call. Maybe they won't be in a position to buy then but maybe they will be. Every person I know who has great cars is in the exact same position. The point is that there is always a pool of buyers for exceptional cars that is largely independent of the public marketplace.

Secondly, everyone I know who owns a spectacular example of something is not a speculator or flipper - they're real enthusiasts. Rarely do they sell for the money - they only sell to buy something more expensive that they love more. Therefore, in the event of a downturn, they probably won't be unloading their beloved cars unless they have to chance to move up to something they want more. However, don't underestimate the amount of people who already own their dream cars and wouldn't move into anything else regardless of price. And they're all big boys; they completely understand that cars, like any other asset, move up and down in the price and don't care in the least.

Lastly, great Ferraris and iconic cars just won't drop that much. If you're 20% off from your dream car now (like 288 GTO), then you might be able to swing it later. If you're 50% or more then forget it, unless it's something like that a 355 or 328 GTB that had a 100% run up in dealer asking prices (another subject entirely) then you might have a chance but more unlikely than not.

As far as newish cars like Scuds and 599 GTOs, I would think they would resume a normal depreciation curve but, again, I don't have a crystal ball.

 

If I may add, and I've mentioned this many times with slight variation, the market CAN NOT TURN UNTIL THE MAJORITY IS ON THE WRONG SIDE.

Hard to understand and even harder to accept but let's look at some examples.

2000 GOLD: most positions were short to nuetral. Gold went on an 11 year BULL run and swung the majority over to that side. It's been thrashed since the 2012 peak yet the bulls insist it's only a tempory slide......or manipulated

2009 stock market: after a 50% drop from the peak, all long positions exited and a lot of cash remained on the side line for years later. They have moved 200% since and there's no signs yet of a reversal.

USD$: arguably the most hated of all investment classes has sent ripples through just about every currency globally. Same applies to US Treasuries where even the best of traders got caught on the wrong side.

Oil: say no more

Last but not least and my favorite, DETROIT: this is a classic example of how the majority are always wrong. At the low point during bankruptcy, the smart money picked up property for penny's. They are now untouchable.

So the point is clear. As long as a bearish climate exists, prices are likely to remain buoyant. Furthermore, this will swing those waiting for a drop into capitulation and they too will turn bullish and buy........AT THE TOP. This will be the time to sell IMO but I don't think we're there yet.

I'll end with a quote for one of my favorite analysts.

The market is there to fool you
Robert Pretchter

 

At worse there'll be an adjustment. If there were a crash that made some of the cars mentioned affordable to one and all I'd be looking at buying guns, water and food first.

 

You were on a roll until this sentence...

I don't see a bearish climate. If anything, the pendulum is already swung too far the other way. Real estate, the Dow/S&P and collectibles (art, classic cars, etc.) have all soared as the US economy has recovered. Ford and GM just announced strong earnings, unemployment is down, etc. (Europe is a different story ... I would bet more austerity measures will tank the euro.)

My concern with the current market is not that vintage Ferraris are up sharply -- IMHO, those are legitimately scarce and in some ways unique -- but that modern cars, which are electronic as much as mechanical, are not proven long term assets, have no significant history, and seem to be riding the wave based solely on their badge.

Again, I don't have a crystal ball either, but I've lived through a few of these cycles now and see some worrying signs. I expect prices will soften among the serious collectible classics, and probably crumble for the common, more recent cars that have always been readily available in garage queen condition.

 

I'd love to buy a perfect F40 for $300k or a 275 GTB/6C long nose alloy with outside filler cap for $220k (that I once saw in the FML) but I doubt either will ever happen again.