You're so resourceful, with lots of time on your hands. And you make me yawn. Look it up for yourself, and don't exchange posts with me anymore. Dad had 2 of them, and my neighbor had 3 before that brief stint of madness began. Also, I think it's extremely out of line posting personal and sensitive information about people on here without their consent.
This is glorious. Thank you for this. The ad keeps reiterating 'this is our telephone number where we can be reached with any questions'. One wonders how long it will be before the DEA calls that number with the one truly pertinent question that is owed a seller listing that car at that price.
Truth be told, I haven't actually looked very hard for good studies. For example I just discovered these guys on another thread. Historic Automobile Group Associated with the Financial Times. Their chart only stretches back to 1980 and shows only an 'absolute' index graphed against the S&P 500. Still not the algorithmic approach I think would be interesting...
Of course it is! From the picture I thought it had a roof air intake scoop, which confused me... Turns out it's one of those small info screens!
Well, I could see why you would think that but you posted that stuff yourself in a non subscribed area. Or maybe you've forgotten what you posted on here because, iirc, it was one of the few posts where you weren't telling people to stay away from buying Ferraris. My point is that you can't tell people to not buy a Ferrari because they should remember some Arabian horse bubble that I am sure just about no one else ever heard of. I'm sorry your dad and neighbor got caught up in it but I'm sure they enjoyed their horses for a long time. They're very fun animals, although from my limited knowledge of ownership, I think they are even more expensive to keep than Ferraris. Again, if you want to keep your mission of telling people why they shouldn't buy a Ferrari, there are lots of good and relevant data out there. Citing some obscure trend from when you were a toddler isn't one of those. Just so you know, I was in my 20's during the tech bubble and I had no idea it was going on. I don't think I've ever once said, "remember the tech bubble?" because I myself don't remember it and I for sure wasn't a child.
Yes, it is. Interesting car in silver. There are a few very nice cars in that collection. We will see what happens tonight. I think we will see some strong prices and at least a couple of records. Fwiw, the nicest 288 GTO I've seen at any of the sales here might be the Bonhams car. Big or small prices, someone is going to get some really cool cars to enjoy.
My birthday is not posted anywhere in this forum, no idea where you got this information. Do not post it again. Also, re-read the title of the thread. It is titled, is the bubble due to burst. If you don't like the discussion of bubbles, you're in the wrong place. Arabian horses were being hyped as investments in the mid to late 80s. They were being touted and marketed by sellers and speculators as tax-havens for the wealthy, and the prices increased dramatically over a very short period of time. Prices beforehand were in the 5 figures with only the few rare and exceptional examples in the six figures. When the madness hit its peak, there were arabians selling for well over a million dollars. 10-12x the original value in just a few years. Tax Reform Act of 1986 closed the tax-sheltering "passive investment" loophole, limiting the use of horse farms as tax shelters, and the whole thing collapsed. Go look at the value of an Arabian horse today. And of course, many of the farms turned into slick salesman with over the top auctions who pumped up the price on their own, luring more people in. Just like these auction houses are doing right now. As TheMayor has stated on here many times, it's really disgusting and they do not care about the end result and the people who will get hurt, or the cars that will all be homeless when the music stops. They had Mecum on CNBC the other day asking him point blank if the market was in a bubble. And he retorted that the index is up 400 percent over the past 10 years. He neglected to mention that about 350 percent of that increase has been over an 18 month period. If that isn't deceptive, then I don't know what is. The fact that horses are just as expensive or more expensive to own than a Ferrari did not stop people back then, and I wouldn't expect it to stop them now with a car. People do not care about the upkeep when they only plan to own the asset for a matter of months or a year. Lastly, my father and neighbor were not caught up in it. They owned the horses for pleasure since 1980, and sold them both in 1985 after the price lost touch with reality. http://www.chronofhorse.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-247215.html http://revitavet.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-history-of-arabian-horse-market.html
Whatever you say, bro: http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/new-york-tri-state-sponsored-bradan/326243-looking-rent-f-car-august.html http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/drink-smoke-fine-dining/420350-30th-birthday-bubbly.html And fwiw, I didn't post your exact birthday. I apologize for having good recall and powers of observation. But based on your response, everyone knows what it is now. I got your pm threatening legal action. That is laughable. If you post information in a non subscribed forum and it comes again, that's your issue. There is no expectation of privacy and you're out of line to threaten me. But as I said, all you have to do is ask me nicely. Back onto the topic: thanks for the info on his great Arabian horse investment bubble of the late 80's. Very enlightening. I had never heard of it before. But how could someone think there could be a limited supply? You could just put more male and female horses in a dark stall and turn on the Barry white and BOOM, more horses. Right? Where's the "they're not making any more part?" What am I missing there?
I don't see the parallel at all - let's analyze this for a moment. You are comparing a tax shelter play that can be wiped out with the stroke of a legislative pen vs buying a collector car with a fixed quantity. Horses need a specific type of shelter that is not attached to many of the homes in the US, they need food and up keep that cannot be put off or they will die vs a car that will just have deferred maintenance, they have a finite life and cannot be resurrected or restored. I would also assume that their value diminishes as they pass a certain age where as cars tend to gain value long term as they become "classic." You can also control the supply of horses to some extent by mating horses, yet no Enzo era Ferraris will ever be made again and there will be some cars lost along the way. I also personally did not have a poster of Arabian horses on my wall growing up, though in all fairness I vaguely recall my girlfriend in junior high having a poster of galloping horses in her room. I can go on with the list of differences all day; regardless of if you think there is a collector car bubble or not , there is no parallel here.
To clarify, as I was asked via DM, my post was in jest and I'm not suggesting the seller is engaged in anything illegal. I simply think that the price is high enough that a reasonable person could (in jest) wonder if the seller were under the influence of a controlled substance when they priced this vehicle for sale. No affiliation with the seller. They're probably nice, wonderful people. Now nobody sue me.
Of course every bubble has its unique set of circumstances. I was merely pointing out that the hype was the same as were many of the tricks and showmanship used by many of the farms to seduce people into getting involved. As was the dramatic price increase over a very short period of time due to price manipulation amongst them. There were many lawsuits filed after it unraveled. Also, like all bubbles, they do not need a financial calamity or a "stroke of a pen" to pop. The Arabian horse bubble would have eventually blown with or without the tax situation. As soon as the masses find another asset class to clamor after, or the sentiment switches to bear or fear, it's over. The behavior never switches back to bull.
Unless the tax shelter they were providing justified the price to some degree. The elimination of the tax shelter brought them back from an investment vehicle to merely a horse.
I know i will regret posting , as I cringe typing but I need to ask .... What will you do down the road if prices stabilize with a delta of call it 25-50k ( because no two exact used cars can come on the market ) ? Will you be claiming victory around fchat if you saw Dino / boxer / testarossa prices fall a tad ? I would like to know this definition of yours in regards to "bubble bursting" ? Does a testarossa going for 125 today ( assuming ) go back to a 100 ( assuming ) VIcotry for you ? Just curious.... ( I don't know why I am )
I live in Hong Kong and work in equity markets In my view the next leg up in the F market in terms of value could come from the Chinese becoming buyers. We have seen them enter the art and vintage watch market in a big way and I suspect they will enter the vintage car market. they will come in with cash. (Unlike the Japanese in the 80s who came in with debt ) and they will look for the best examples they can find. This will help yo reopen the delta between the best and worst examples ........just my 2 cents
Found this article on classiccarsforsale.co.uk China to discuss importing historic cars | Classic Cars For Sale UK China to discuss importing historic cars Date: 07.04.2015 China to discuss importing historic cars Guian Zong and May Mao of CVUC were accompanied by FBHVC chairman David Whale to meet Bentley Drivers Club president Jimmy Medcalf on their UK visit. China will discuss lifting a longstanding ban on importing historic vehicles opening up the worlds biggest car market to classic cars this September. The Classic Vehicle Union of China said it will hold meetings with representatives of the Chinese Government to discuss revoking regulations preventing the imports of older vehicles. Guian Zong, executive president of the FBHVCs Chinese counterpart, said: The impact would be huge, because the appetite for classic cars in China is dramatic. There is a huge demand, so allowing cars to be imported would definitely have a global influence on prices. As we all know, China is a very big market there are currently 0.14 billion cars on the countrys roads, and that number increases by 24 million every year. The popularity and awareness of classic cars has increased dramatically over the past decades, but while the interest has grown, at the moment the law still prohibits these vehicles being imported. He added that wealthy Chinese enthusiasts currently use the few classic vehicles already in the country before the law was enacted, or keep their collections abroad, noting one collector who keeps 100 of his cars in London. The union said that while the Chinese market had a particular appetite for US cars and well-known British brands including Rolls-Royce and Bentley, it added that the import restrictions meant the wider Chinese population are not as aware of classic cars as their European and American counterparts. Mr Zong who has just concluded a visit to the UK to investigate the British classic car movement, including attending this years Goodwood Members Meeting - has discussed the proposals with his British counterparts at the Federation of British Historic Vehicle Clubs, and in return has offered his assistance to UK clubs keen to organise events in the Peoples Republic. Geoff Lancaster, spokesman, said: Given the way the system works in China, any change of the rules isnt going to happen overnight, but now is the time for the Chinese to look at how their infrastructure will work with historic vehicles. In particular, just as we do in the UK, there will need to be a new generation of young apprentices to learn the skills needed to maintain and restore these older vehicles. We have pledged to help the CVUC make the social and economic case for the rules in China to be relaxed, and our chairman will visiting later this year to explain how the classic car scene in the UK works. In particularly, well be showing how historic vehicles benefit the economy, as we have all the figures from previous studies for the UK. If it can add £4.2bn to the economy on a small island with 60 million people living on it, imagine what benefit it would bring to a country like China. David Simister
the mid east market has also been another somewhat "new' and strong market for vintage cars... not that there was ever a ban on having them or importing them but there has been somewhat of a mentality change over the past couple years. 5 years ago any car that was older than 10 minutes was considered an old car over there and they no longer wanted it, they wanted the newest and most modern gizmos.... now over past couple years the culture there has changed and they are getting into the classics... this thread is pointless and there will never be a conclusion for several reasons, firstly, every person on here defines many of these terms like "bubble" differently. many are just referring to somewhat high prices, while other define bubble as something that can pop go down 90% and never come back (this later definition I think rather unlikely for scenario for premium special A grade collector cars.) A more productive conversation would probably be just discussing specific models and specific transactions and specific trends, and IMHO you basically have had 3 distinct trends that are maybe not a bubble but three distinct trends of froth within the market... 1- in 2013 and 2014 you had many new and inexperienced buyers buying vintage cars and paying A prices for C quality cars... I think that is mostly over or at least it will be quite hard or impossible for them to turn around and get that money back as today they are likely to get a C price when they sell today for a C car.... many of these same novices then moved on to their next stupid purchase... 2- They moved on to buying everything and anything air-cooled or old porsche cars at very high prices despite the majority of these models were mass produced in high quantities and many not very special but maybe just a standard production model with a sticker and radio delete ... that type of stuff.... (don't get me wrong I love p cars but 99% of the stuff people bought past 2 years at high prices aint special but more marketing gimmicks, hey a 959 is a really special important car to porsche history but an RS america which is a 90's c2 with a sticker aint !).. this market appears to have air coming out as well now and now they are on the what I think is the third and final act of stupidity...... 3- Act 3 to me appears to be the “must have to have anything modern and limited at any price"...just like act 1 and act 2 above I think this is probably in its final stages now and hard to see any upside left here and my guess is the guy paying 600k for his Ferrari superamerica over the past 6 months could struggle to get that money back anytime soon or anytime .... If you look past the 3 trends of stupidity above and look at the real special low production historically significant collector cars I think the market is fairly stable and strong and in a consolidation period consolidating the massive gains of the past 10 years....
No doubt that high net worth mainland/HK players would have some sort of impact to the market, especially with directly opening up their importation, though I think the question is to what degree the impact may be with any sort of policy change at this point. For quite some time, the cash of the elite Chinese has been flowing abroad, tangibly impacting a variety of markets, for the purposes of investment and protection. I'd argue that they already have access to the global F market, and any change impact would be in response to convenience of repatriating those assets, which as I understand is a big question mark, as moving and maintaining cash/assets out of the country is a deliberate strategy that is politically driven for a notable portion of that class. I agree that there will be some leg up, but perhaps not to the degree of a tectonic shift that many imagine. That is just my opinion, gleaned through having spent time on mainland/HK in the manufacturing sector, and N. Am partners.
were they dumb or were we dumb for not being ahead of the trend? D and F cars are selling for true A prices of 2013 and 2014.
