i feel sorry for some of the monterey buyers

The coin market is very thinly traded. I would not say selling the rare coin is always an easy thing. I'll never forget getting a 2nd opinion on a coin I had bought at one of the major coin shows held through out this country. The dealer told me as rare as the coin is finding a buyer is even rarer.

 

It has already happened with gold. In 2011 it peaked at 1911.00. Now 4 years later it is trading a little over 1100.00. If someone bought at the top of the market in 2011 and sold today they would of lost over 40 percent.

 

Absolutely agreed. Ferrari is now chasing boutique customer$, not car guys.

 

Great comments & insights - I just returned from Monterey & hope still springs eternal...I like the "bubble burst" comments and hope this comes to pass. I inspected so many wonderful cars that rarely get driven accdg to the owners; I can't blame them, but I wish I could work them out...(-* I have a friend w/ a Dino; he indicates he'll sell high and then buy a Dino AND a GTC-4 when things "burst". I like that attitude but I hear a GTC-4 went for $571K this weekend!!

 

People have always tried to make a fast buck whether it was rare coins or pyramid schemes. One thing that is always guaranteed. There will always be someone to take your money.

 

Big Red I owe you a beer!! Thanks for being the voice of reason.

Mr. Mayor, I do not think I have ever agreed with anything that you have ever posted on FChat. I don't un why you always sound like a curmudgeon? You are entitled to your opinion though, no matter how clueless I think it may be.

To the rest of you cry babies, who cares what the market does?? If you are a true "enthusiast" as some of you claim to be, you should have skin in the game by now and actually own an exotic car. But for most of you complainers, it seems like you either sold too soon or waited too long.

In either case, don't be a hater!!

 

I suspect that those who spent millions on a car don't have to sell when the market goes down. They may sell to take a capital loss to offset gains elsewhere. My guesss isthese high end car investors use art and cars, etc as a hedge to diversify their risk. Would be surprised if cars, art, et al is more than 2% of their total net worth.

 

Ha, agreed.

This is kind of talk is just puerile and presumptive...and intentionally inflammatory.

 

+1. I am one of those people. I joined this site 10 years ago when I was still in grad school, and finally got to a position where I thought I'd be able to buy one. The last six months have been infuriating. I have seen $70-80k 550s for the last 10 years it seems, and now they have jumped 50-75%+. My favorite, the CS, was $150k for many years and is now $250+ in the last year. Even 360s are up. While I could force myself to pay up and get something, I feel like it's a dangerous time to do so. If this is truly a bubble (which it seems like to me), I don't want to lose a lot of money in short order when it finally bursts. So after waiting a decade, I am now forced to keep sitting on the sidelines watching the madness play out.

 

they made models prior to the CS and 550

 

I'm glad I got my 308 and TR when I did!

 

I agree the market is out of whack -- $300K asking prices for a 512 TR, tripled in a couple of years, same supply of cars available? -- but I believe it will correct, at least for the more recent stuff, which is in nosebleed territory for no apparent reason.

As far as 246s, 308s and the older cars, there's a natural trend for desirable classic sports cars to be become collectibles, more than regular drivers, over time. As posted earlier, Daytonas are likely to be permanently expensive cars, and that's probably as it should be so those cars end up with well-heeled owners who can service/run them. I think 360s and F430s will resume their depreciation curves and be the most affordable Ferraris yet, because they're easy to drive, safe, common, and all around user-friendly cars.

I think you're right, and I'm not buying till things calm down a bit.

 

Affordable V-12Ferraris can still be had.

The Monterey sales results would seem to indicate that 456 GTAs are not participating in the price increase.

 

The 4 speed automatic gearbox is not to everyone's taste, I think that is why GTA values are lagging.

 

This

Just shows how fickle people can be

It's easy to see who is buying when almost all for sale ads are dealers, seems like a logical conclusion to draw. Also, the fact that they are paying grossly over the going rate of 18 months ago shows me that most of them aren't enthusiasts. A true enthusiast knows what the car is actually worth. Sure maybe a few panicked here and there and fell for this ponzi scheme, but I would imagine the number that did was small. Also, there have been brokers, even on F-chat openly stating that they have been buying the same car back a second time. Could it be any more obvious? I'm speechless LOL

Hey FTanner, please Re-read TheMayor's post. He's been buying, collecting, repairing and driving Ferraris for pure pleasure since 1981. I'd say he has a good idea of what he's talking about. Especially when he bought something he loved and thought was a great value when nobody else did. That is a true enthusiast. And for the record, I bought my Testarossa when nobody wanted anything to do with them. I saved for 10 years, and paid cash for it. Drove it like a stole it. 4k miles a year. Also, I formed my opinions and conclusions regarding the market based on my common sense and most importantly the input of enthusiasts and collectors just like him. I have a friend and neighbor who has been collecting and working on F-cars since 1971. His view is identical to TheMayor, and for the record he just unloaded one of his 250GTs at the end of last year because the value was out of touch with reality. He has another, as well as a 275 racecar and two Boxers. He paid between 8k-14k for the 250s and 275 back in the early 70s. He must be a hater as well? I don't think so.

Again, no asset goes up in a 90 degree curve, quadrupling in price, without the supply being completely obliterated, or the price being manipulated and/or fixed. Especially an asset such as a high production Porsche or Ferrari. These cars have not vanished off the face of the earth greatly over the past 4 years, so the only other explanation is that the price has been tampered with. If you think that this is a demand driven by end users, then you are basically saying that over an 18 month period, people just decided out of nowhere to go out and buy every classic car they ever wanted. Absurd. That 90 degree graph and the cheerleaders and dealers are what lured people in. The greed and euphoria sure does a great job of tuning out the warning flags

In every bubble, logic and reason are out the window. Just like this one.

I can't wait to see the song and dance that the auctions and dealers do when the Fed raises those interest rates!
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Yes, I realize. The 308/328s have gone way up too, used to be $50-60k all day long now some asking $150k?? And 355s are $100k coupled with the potential for five figure repair bills. I could get an F1 version of something but that's not what I ever wanted. I'll just sit tight for now. Just glad to know I'm not the only one who thinks this recent rise is normal.

 

Autoweek article...
"Monterey auctions see $393 million in sales -- the first decline since 2009
August 19, 2015
Monterey's top sale: A $17,600,000 1964 Ferrari 250 LM by Scaglietti. Photo by Patrick Ernzen/RM Sotheby's
With no superstar cars in the spotlight, year-over-year results down slightly
The unofficial results of the Monterey car week auctions are in, and the results are … flat, just as we predicted.
In fact, preliminary data courtesy of Hagerty -- which are incomplete as they lack figures from the Rick Cole sale -- show that sales are down $10 million, give or take. (We’ll update as more accurate figures become available.)
There may be a few updates and adjustments ahead in the coming days, but the big picture should remain the same: At $392.7 million, this year’s sales brought less money than last year’s $402.6 million total (2014’s data, minus Rick Cole numbers). Not exactly blood in the streets, mind you, but this is the first time since 2009 that overall numbers haven’t seen an increase.

The typical car crossing the block also changed hands for less money. Average sale price was down ($540,366 in 2014 to $479,557 in 2015) and median sale price was down (approximately $99,000 in 2014 to $96,800 in 2015). More lots were offered in 2015 than in 2014 (1,386 to 1,227), yet fewer sold -- sell-through rate was 58 percent, down from 61 percent last year.

 

Actually Brad, when the Fed raises interest rates it will signal inflation that ought to result in an increase in the number of people of real wealth putting more of it into hard assets.

 

It's not just the cars that have crazy prices. In 1994, I attended the FCA Annual Meet in Monterey that coincided with Pebble, etc. I paid $100 per night to stay at a Days Inn without air-conditioning and I thought that was ridiculous. Nope, I checked and every dump with a roof is now charging $500 per night!

 

I am surprised it is that low.

 

It's also going to rip a hole into the stock market on all of the companies who have too many shares on leverage. As well as the recent startup IPOS with little to no earnings, and zero to negative earnings.

 

You know it's a bubble when everything is up. I believe Porsche's led the charge with 930s going thru the roof in a very short period of time.

 

Exactly