What (beyond the obvious) determines what prices Ferarris will go for long term?

Supply and demand.

 

If your a real enthusiast, just buy want you want to drive and stop worrying about future values.

If your looking for an investment, then I guess you look for rarity. Hardly anyone wanted a manual 599 - now those same cars are going for "nuts" money. Does that mean those manual cars are better than F1-S versions? Of course not. That is part of the insanity that drives prospectors. Some well-connected buyers purchase limited edition Ferraris (such as 458 Speciale) and never drive them - they just put them in a temperature-controlled garage and for 10 years for investment purposes only.

For the 360, thankfully they made plenty of manuals. There are also plenty of articles on how to convert F1 to MT on those cars as well. So, I don't expect to see much of a premium for MT on that model. F430 / 612 / 599 - all last generation of MT cars with very few manuals made - are a different story.

Thankfully, I buy from an enthusiast's perspective, drive the car, and don't worry about the future value.

Exactly what are you?

 

This. You don't have to go "beyond the obvious"...

As to what will be demand, my educated guess: The handmade stuff from the pre-Fiat era; "supercars" like the 288 GTO, F40, et al; time capsule cars from the pre-computerized era (1989 and earlier).

 

Speculation and hype.

 

This exactly. No one thinks about future value of other cars, it seems. But some people think Ferraris should appreciate like well-placed real estate. I would never buy a Ferrari hoping to gain money. I bought what I wanted. That's the sure way to be happy with your purchase.

 

In my opinon, beauty more than anything else. Beauty = Demand.

For example...

A 275 GTB is basically the exact same car as a 330 GTC. They built about the same number of each. A 330 cost a little more when new. Yet, today the 275 GTB costs several multiples of a 330. Lets examine the pros and cons

330 GTC

PROS: More comfortable interior...better soundproofing...better constructions quality (built at Pininfarina, not Scaglietti)...larger, more powerful engine

CONS: A bit heavier

275

Pros: A bit lighter.

Cons: Not as well built... not as comfortable...less powerful.

Given this exam, the 330 should be worth more.

But, we are forgetting one thing - beauty. The 275 GTB is by far the more pretty car, and that is why it is worth more.

 

The greater the number of types built, the less valuable they become.

A 16M will hold its value much better than a 430 spider.

A car is not an appreciating asset. Buy what you want. Drive the hell out of it. It will be worth what it's worth when you're ready for the next one.

 

Design, rarity.
But please do not choose your next car by those criteria, buy what you like!

 

+1

 

The Red ones sell for more.

 

1. Supply and demand

2. Interest rates

3. Speculation and hype


Current state of affairs in the present is #2, which lead to number 3. People are having alot of fun with all that free money. I wonder what's next on the list of items to speculate on.

 

Adam where do you get your data? If 10-15% were ordered with 3-pedals...

There could be as many as 900-1200 Gated Modenas on the Earth. That "can" seem like a lot I suppose, unless you are actually trying to find one! ;-)

There might be as many Spiders, I haven't seen the hard data.

Do you have a source for the actual percentages of these cars?


OP, you should buy the one that moves you.

 

In a normal market (i.e., look back over the past 25 years) then values will be supply / demand. Waves of nostalgia and demographics will (temporarily) influence the allocation of demand for some of the less collectible cars, so you will have some natural relative increases and decreases, but that's just another way of pointing out the demand side does change slightly in what receives relatively more or less interest. In speculative markets, like today (for many many assets) then you can't really know, since it will be driven by momentum and price movements as much as anything else. Justifying the movements becomes an exercise in futility; you can only know ex post what caused the movement and so not really predictable. Enough speculation and pretty much everything rises in waves.

Longer-term, I think you just go back to supply and demand. Core demand won't change much for a brand that has been global / renowned for literally decades. Supply won't change much either for old cars, neither will icon status. 288 GTOs are pretty iconic and very low supply. F40s even more iconic but much greater supply. The truly low production classics will always command high prices because they aren't generational but more aspirational and start looking a bit more like automotive art work.

Recent discussions around the modern era cars and those production volumes are more backward looking justification for a speculative environment that pretty much every major central bank in the world is looking to temper in this prolonged period of abnormally low rates.

I agree w/anyone saying the OP should just buy what they like. More likely to get burned trying to buy to please the market because the market is often wrong and panicky about preferences over short periods of time... if YOU like it now, you (and others) will likely find it appealing later too...

 

Nope - from what I've been reading from various sources, there are at least 25% MT of total 360 production. That number dropped significantly with the F430 and 612, with only a handful for the 599. There were just 2 for the California.

 

Various sources? I have only seen guesses. Do you have any links?


Spare parts are always welcome.

 

This is a much more difficult question!

If you can find a big enough credible dealer that has the cars you may get lucky that way, as I did. Still, there could be limitations on a test drive. Mine was in heavy traffic so it was very slow, I think I got into third gear once for about 5 seconds. Basically I got to "feel" the pedals and stick but thinking that I knew how to drive a semi-modern Ferrari stick was a false notion.

It took me thousands of miles and many months to master the feel of the thing and it's capabilities and drive it like a pro. BIG learning curve to be smooth in all conditions. It is so precise and revs so fast, with ample torque, that unless you are already a master of a 400 hp sportscar with a feather light flywheel that can rev to 8500 RPM's you've got some fun times ahead as you dial it in!

 

Heck, there's a reason they say 'resale red'. It all depends on the eventual buyer but we are talking Fcars right?!

 

It may be obvious but in my view it's just a matter of rarity and beauty. If a car has both, demand will be high, and so will the prices. Only rarity does nothing, and only beauty will take forever to begin appreciating.

 

Well said!

 

the answer is obvious. whatever Ferrari I buy will immediately stop appreciating and the price will turn south the following month.
whatever Ferrari I sell will immediately cause the depreciating price to halt and rise rapidly.

works the same for stocks.

 

Depends on whether ~25(+) years out, they ban IC engines completely in favor of alternative power as I believe is ultimately (and sadly) likely... if you can't drive 'em at all, they won't hold value.

What... you asked about 'beyond the obvious'.