Is the wait over for the 348?

I know this post isn't for everyone and realize that not everyone cares only about valuations, but figured I would post this and get others opinions. I know there was a post made 10 years ago here on fchat wondering where the bottom of 348's value was going to be and I think we finally found it! As an owner, I check almost weekly the values. Hagerty updates their valuations every 4 months so I was excited to see this August it was still rising! And since I've owned mine, NADA has put it up another $1000. Pretty cool info I decided would be cool to share and see where people think this value will go.
With high production numbers, it will never be as rare a car as i would hope, but holding them for the next generation and keeping them in top shape is going to be a blast to look back on.
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Pretty much every collectible car is up right now. Money is cheap and until that changes I think this trend will continue.

 

Been tracking the 348s as well since I'm a very interested buyer for a model I've always loved. From what I've seen, the primary driver in the tracked uptick in *asking* prices has been dealer listings, and have been sitting for a while unsold. Seeing it more as a re-application of the formula of buy at market from pp, then relist +$10/20k that has plagued a good portion of other 70s/80s marques/models across the market, pressing for that exponential valuation curve. IMO, looking at sales prices, its not there for the 348... yet.

 

I too think that there are MANY overpriced models. I would be happy getting $34,000 for my ts if I was selling it, but that's only because I haven't completed the major that it's due again for at its (high) 63k miles. AND my rear grill was stolen...

 

you sell it for that, let me know... I will buy it

 

Haha I couldn't feel right doing it at the moment. I have the clutch pumpkin off replacing the release bearing right now and repacking the flywheel. I may consider it after I put everything back together! Haha

 

But back to values, I believe if the 348 goes up, subsequently the 355 would have to go up because they are so similar. I know to us owners, they aren't, but to people looking at Them from the outside, they are similar. So i think that's delaying the 348 because the 355 is to new to appreciate.

 

355 values are on the up over the last year or so, probably up 10-15k in that time frame. I'd expect the 348 to move in lock step or maybe slightly behind the 355 as they're so similar, but the 355 is generally (but certainly not universally) preferred so is leading the 348 a bit. It's the old, well I can have a 355 for $15k more, so I'll get that. The 360 and 430 follow each other in the same way (but down instead of up right now ie, the 430 drops a bit and the 360 follows in lock step) where the 348/355 and 360/430 have decoupled as they're so different. Same as the 308/328 decoupling from the 348/355 in values as they're so different, but 328's generally above 308's other than the rare dry sump and glass cars. The market appears to behave like:

308/328 move in a general group with the model segments showing some differentiation.

348/355 move in a general group with separation.

360/430 move in a general group with separation. Specials excepted (CS, Scud) as they're their own market.

We're getting to that timeframe where the people who lusted after the 348 and 355 in high school/college have the disposable income to start buying them as the end destination instead of them being a used Ferrari that's a stepping stone to a higher model. That seems to be the point where they plateau and start creeping up (20-25 years). The oldest 355 and newest 348 are 20 years old, which puts the people who lusted after them when new at around 35-45 years old, just entering prime earning potential.

We'll see, but the market has been fairly predictable in that manner, dino took off a while back, then the 308/328 followed. Ferraris have followed that pattern value wise so far with few exceptions (seems to just be 400/412 as the exception right now, everything else has followed that pattern). If I were viewing cars as an investment - which I think is a waste - I'd be after a 400 5 speed right now.

 

Yes and I have gotten two offers this year after doing my major two years ago and adding new wheels and tires. First offer was $89,000 based somewhat on the collector early 89 at FNE up here. Mine has less miles. Then after figuring in my low mileage and costs plus service and parts, I asked $90,000 (above my purchase cost)and the Kid (yes kid 20 something?) said he'd pay $100,000. He wasn't still there at the club when I went around the block

 

It's funny how the same car can command 3 times tge price I would ask for! Wish I didn't have the miles I have, but at the same time I'm kind of glad because everything mechanically has already been taken care of. With the lower mile vehicles there's still a lot of problems that are due to come up that will be an expensive fix on top of an already expensive price tag. I think I would rather pay less for a higher mileage car knowing that it has been driven and taken care of. But then again mine isn't a condition 1 car...

 

I agree though Hagerty has a #1 94 348tb at 67,200 and a #1 95B at 59,700.

 

Hagerty's values are all over the place and seem to have very little to no bearing in the real world....

 

Their "comparable vehicles" or "vehicles for sale" are usually wrong as they are priced by individuals. However I have found that their valuation tool as I have posted above is often times spot on with the average market

 

Yes, this I'm aware of, the basis of this thread however.

I would be interested to see how they arrive at their numbers.

 

Their valuation tool indicates that '97-up 355 gtb's had price drop last year while '95 and '96 gtb's were flat, which the market has never shown. It's kind of crazy - the tool indicates that 2 years ago you would have to pay $15k more for a '97 than a '96. There's no difference between the cars. As I said, the numbers seem pulled out of thin air.

That and there was never a time you could buy a #1 condition '95 gtb for 39k, even though their valuation says you could have in 2013. I've never seen a #1 f355 that cheap, any year or model. I haven't seen a #1 f355 within $20k of that.

 

Factor in for the 348 production numbers , far fewer 348's exist than 355's , this will have a large impact on price compared to 355's. especially late model spiders , just over 500 built. wouldn't it be crazy if 348 values surpass the mighty 355. lol. ive seen some adventurous asking prices on ebay lately for 348's

 

Anything can happen in the crazy Ferrari world!

 

Maybe I should retract my $34k statement then, haha.

 

they ALL gotta keep asking those adventurous prices and eventually it will become somewhat close to that.....

 

At one of the Hagerty Scottsdale seminars I attended a few years ago they indicated they use auction results and info from clients that recently purchased a particular model. This could account for the shifts their guide seems to have if it is true.

 

Very simple

New registrations is the major component

There is a company that supplies all these facts, I can't remember the name of them off my head

 

Quick search-

https://www.hagerty.com/valuationtools/About-our-prices

 

They all claim a "special algorithm"

They all use the same database

Now Autotrader is entering the data game and they are more accurate on used cars in general, more so then KBB or NADA. I still belong to dealer elite and read it when I'm on the crapper. Like to stay up on it in case I get another dealership which I am seriously considering.

Exotics is a guessing game and folks here can better value the price on these things then Haggerty can.

 

I don't suppose that Hagerty might make every effort to increase values so owners feel the need to increase their insurance coverage, which means more profits? Just a thought.
Car value sources are hard to figure out. I also have a 308GTS, which the Ferrari Market
Letter says is going for about $39,000, and Hagerty says the value is $76,000. Go figure. A car is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

 

A excerpt of a few charts I've been putting together as I've been looking for a potential one of my own. The actual data tracked is to vin/mileage/listing party/listing venue/relisting trends/time on market/price reductions/actual high bids etc etc...

Still spending time pulling archived listings out to flesh it out further. However, a lot of stuff (dealer) is sitting past the historic average turnover time for these cars, and bid-auctions aren't making it much past mid-30s/low 40s in the repeated re-listings. A number of the cars for sale now over the past few months sold in the past summer/winter out of private party listings.
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