No bursting of a bubble in my view is to be expected, rather slow and controlled deflation of the balloon. Some cars will remain stable, some will deflate even more.
I agree with this but contest the word WILL...... In my opinion its well underway......UK prices...... Short nose 275's down from over GBP 2 million in April to circa 1.2-1.4 today.....Lussos fallen back from same period from GBP 1.6 average to circa 1 Million...... These are real prices not dealer fantasy asking levels.....
Mr Paul Baber, you do seem to a very unhappy and pesermistic person regarding the enjoyment of the Ferrari brand, all you ever say is how over inflated and over priced the market is. Why so much over analysis of such a beautiful brand, please tell me where I can buy a grade one perfect lusso for 1 million and I will by 2 or maybe 3, you live in a fantasy world of people that are never happy and always put negative spin on a this site, for your information I have just referred a good friend on his life long dream of a 4 cam and the car has cost him 3 million sterling, you are living in a fantasy world thinking grade one cars are 1.5. If you are priced out of the market please try not to give the impression all is doom and gloom when every is having record months. Thanks
How do I answer this ? Firstly I am delighted and far from unhappy that this market is beginning to return to some form of sanity. I do enjoy Ferrari and have done so since the early 1970's. What I dont enjoy are spivs, speculators and greedy dealers..... In my opinion they ruin the fun of true enthusiasts. However we live in a real world and unfortunately we have to suffer them. Historically they disappear very quickly when the market slides. Please refer to my previous message and you will see that I referred to Short Nose 275 and not a 4 cam...... I believe my synopsis is correct..... I sold to the trade a RHD S/N car in April for GBP 2 Mill...... I have a similar car now but totally restored and the best trade offer I have had is 1.2 GBP. If you are serious and can afford to buy....rather than broker.... a Lusso at this level please PM me...... I did not state that the market was doom and gloom but factually noted that prices had decreased significantly since April. I think I know most dealers in the UK and and I can assure you nobody is having record months....... of worry maybe ...but certainly not of sales...... I'm not sure why but your message gives me the impression that you are a dealer and maybe a dealer who has some very over priced stock....just my opinion.
Again your assumption are incorrect, I am not associated to the trade or auction houses, I have no interest in this side of market, I buy and have been buying Ferrari for the last 20 years and continue to buy and I have referred several very close friend over the last years. We will seems to disagree on the market but for what I have purchased over the last few months I am very happy with my cars for the next decade. April this year. A Friend bought a Enzo with 2 k for 1.25 Gbp, today that car is 1.8 gbp. So. This is a slowing market. My assumption will be in 36 months most grade one cars will be 50 % higher than they are today... Some higher some around that number.
I think there is nothing wrong with slowing down of the market. In fact it is healthy. No one who owns classic F'cars wants the kind of hyperbolic appreciation of valuations which is a sign of an uncontrollable bubble which will undoubtedly pop. As prices go up, the amount of people who can afford anything will tend to decrease. The lower the number of buyers the longer it will take for something will to sell. We had a big increase in prices in 2014. Perhaps this momentum carried on to the earlier part of this year with ever growing prices. Maybe this was greed on part of the sellers and buyers who carried on the trend. Now mid summer we had a major stock market crash and some part of the high yield market crashed especially in the energy sectors. The emerging markets are in a recession and their currencies are down 20 to 40%. The amount of people who can afford classic cars have decreased. However I dont believe there is any bubble in the classic Fcar market today even if there is a correction from recent prices. These cars are loved and valued. Overtime 5 to 15 years, everyone who has these cars will do well.
A 330GTC sold at US$580,000 bid (Hilton Head Oct 31st) is a fairly low price and perhaps a reality test for the market?
Paul is talking GB pounds of course and when he says 1m for a Lusso that's about US$1.55m and truth be that is likely the price a dealer would offer today if you wanted a car underwritten. From a retail standpoint I know at least one good Lusso out there with Classiche certification where I think the owner would be delighted to hear a 7 figure USD number not beginning with 2. A shortnose 275GTB at $2.3-2.4m might also be a reality today.
Mr Barber would be as likely as anyone to actually know what the prices are actually doing without the shilling that is so common in the industry. The 2015 trend is younger supercars that the freshly minted generation x & y grew up lusting, stretching from Countach's thru Ferrari supercar's of the 2000s, showing amazing growth. Bugatti EB110, Porsche 962, Lamborghini Countach 25th Anniversary and rarities of that kin have all shown value growth above that of the "baby boomer" classics this year and will likely continue. The Enzo era Ferrari market could easily and happily lose the value gained in 2014 and will be healthier for it. Would get rid of a few that have only bought to make profit. The Bonhams Goodwood sale of the Evans collection certainly pointed to prices softening on the more common Enzo era F-cars. The Keno auction is certainly a curious set of consignments, multiple Gen Y supercars that are all over the shop estimate wise and a few frequent flyers, even the Ferrari Daytona Comp. was offered at Gooding in 2014 and didn't sell at an amount at least a million below the current estimate by Keno which will be a direct way of testing where the market is at. What will be more interesting is to see the stellar cars at RM's New York sale, where they sell and more-so whether they sell. With the assistance of Sothebys and the New York locale along with the record money spent at the events debut in 2013 it should be very large in all respects. I would offer the helpful advise that the biggest lots will either sell at absolute record levels or as the English might say 'Fail to proceed'.
As this sale is pitched as a quality rather than quantity sale which is not in direct competition with any other sales (as they would be at Monterey and Amelia etc), I would have thought RM must believe they have a pretty good chance of selling the high profile lots for the reserves to even consign them?
sounds like a dealer to me.........50% return over three years, yippee, time to sell the house and buy a Grade one Ferrari
... they have been in the antique furniture business for a number of years.... experts in period 1700's/early 1800's furniture... I've seen them on a show called "Antiques roadshow" here in the "States" doing appraisals, etc.. ... however, they are also judges at the Pebble beach Concours show for a # of years (so they do come with some credentials).... prewar and/or early brass as I recall. So they are not new to the collector car arena. They are also quality car collectors... I was there 2 years ago and watched as they bought a very early Ferrari at the Amelia Island auction at that time...... .. I hope this helps with some background...
We are in big bubble territory, just at the cusp of the blow off top phase where prices go exponential, but it may be baby boomer driven as much as anything. The market, like in all market corrections, will become extremely illiquid, double wammy with a high carrying cost. But, for those who just enjoy collecting, or better yet driving, you can not really time these markets much better than any other. At least much of this market does not directly rely on debt, albeit its a byproduct of the world being awash with cheap leverage.
This is spot on. The vintage rare cars set the stage in the price trends and move first on the upswing and downward plunge. I have a price graph showing the 89 bubble that illustrates this. It has been posted on here once or twice. (in this bubble, the kickoff appetizer was the Dino, which I still find ironic and funny because there are more than enough of those things to go around ). Now that the actually collectible cars are sliding down, the newer high production cars cough (80s) will follow suit. Same thing happened last time. Your post reaks of speculative fever/euphoria. Nice try on attempting to mask it though. Any time I hear people say "You're angry about being priced out" or "the days of x car being able to be acquired for a bargain are over" then I conclude that they are most likely a dealer/broker. It's all subconscious hyperbole that aims to seek self re-affirmation that the prices are going to continue to rise forever. And the key to these statements is crystal clear. They are made with the unrealistic and emotional assumption that prices will never fall Kind of like crossing a busy street without looking both ways. No cars coming from the right, here I go! And the Semi coming from the left makes them a bug on the windshield.... The lions share of the enthusiasts have already left the building. And the constant circle-jerking and greedy chatter about price increases do not help the F-car culture or image one bit. On the contrary, it just lures in more greedy pigs who will buy the cars and never drive them. It is also especially annoying hearing people endlessly spin theories and throw around enthusiast verbatim to justify the price hike (which is emotional rationalization), and could not be further from the truth. When in reality it is nothing more than the Fed's zero percent interest rate fiasco fueling this orgy. Most enthusiasts find it to be a big turn-off. I owned two V12 Ferraris for awhile. One was my dream car. And as of now, I really have lost most of my desire to return to the brand. Will most likely go Aston Martin or perhaps a lambo Diablo on the next run. The thought of another enthusiast holocaust at the push of a button in the future is a big deterrent for me.
A bit more information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh_and_Leslie_Keno There are several other references to the Kenos on 'Google', and also to the Historic Motor Car Investment Fund, including this older item from 2013: Investors Chronicle - Classic cars - a vintage investment? Perhaps they are unwinding their investments.
This thread started almost 3 years ago and nice to read the first 2 pages.....Nothing new since than other than still strong prices and good auction sales.... Nice to read that some are predicting the "Fall of The Dino's".....But the only dino's that fell were 200 million years ago....I sold mine too early but the looks did not compensate the lack of power. Ciao Oscar
The market is up, the market is doomed. You're a greedy dealer in disguise, you're a fat investor who doesn't lick tyres, you're a manic depressive who hasn't enough money. The bubble will burst. It always does. And a new bubble will be created. It always happens Some will sell and make a tidy profit. Some will leave it too late and lose their shirt. Some will buy at the bottom and smile with pride. Most couldn't care less because they bought wisely in the first place, and for passion. This thread deserves the same fate as the Dinosaurs.
Actually it doesn't. On the contrary, this thread is a log of the market over the last years. I hope this last until the next market move as reference for the future readers. Francesco
Early bubble identifiers usually don't get timing right. History tells us this time and time again (dot com, 08 crash, etc... all identified by many people years prior to the fall). Doesn't make those individuals wrong in any shape or form, any more than people saying the earth was round were "wrong" because the majority of people kept saying it was flat. Conditions (low interest rates, no shorting ability) support a bubble that can persist. Market looks like it has flattened somewhat, which is first step of a correction. Lots of good articles on bubbles out there for people that want to learn more. Remember, if people in the past somehow were willing to pay tens of thousands for tulip bulbs (for X^2 justified reasons) we can say with great certainty that human nature supports the existence of bubbles with very few foundational, rational elements.
the uncertain and failing monetary / fiscal policies of dominant nations in the financial realm, investment ( purchasing ) of hard goods in place of hoarding currency becomes a better store of value... cash is always king, but only for the moment, while over a longer term the value of cash is unstable... the printing presses of governments are running wide open, watering down the value of currency... the buyers and sellers concur... as they are asking greater amounts for their goods, while purchasers don't mind paying the new upward adjusted prices... current US money supply has been increased by 400% through printing of currency ( by current administration, with debt doubling from approx. 10 trillion to 20 trillion )... the same 25,000 purchase in 2008 becomes a 100,000 purchase today ( oversimplified )... it is folly to think that prices can simply return to prior levels... what is everyone going to do with the worthless hoards of cash circulating... price fluctuations are realistic, bubble burst in Fcar realm not probable...
