I know it's not a Ferrari, but this looks like a bubble milestone to me. What are your thoughts gentlemen? http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/porsche/500671-janis-joplin-356-sale.html Image Unavailable, Please Login
No different when someone spent 100k to try and save Jimi Hendrix's childhood home and it still got bulldozed. The developer lost his money, plus the house in the end. Jimi Hendrix childhood home torn down | The Seattle Times The Janis car will most likely find a buyer not because of the car or its condition , but rather who owned it. These are outliners that wouldn't really classify as a bubble
A client of mine who has many 20's & 30's American iron mentioned the decline in prices due to the generation who grew up with them are no longer around or have sold off due to old age or declining health. With that said, I wonder when the cars mfg. in the 50's and 60's will be hit with that same effect, and what Mfg's for the most part will be able to miss that decline such as Ferrari due to the exclusivity of the cars?
the early cars ( 20's/30's ), the generation gap prevents me from any association with that era... not that the cars are not appreciated for what they are, but not for me to want one... the same applies to the 40's and 50's... they are appreciated but not enough to have one... the generation thing may be a valid argument, but for what percentage of collectors... the 60's and 70's from Detroit seem to be thriving currently... there is an entire industry to support the restoration thing... a huge supply has been created beyond the survivors... but still not for me, too large a supply to be paying big money... the sheer quantity of cars available meeting current demand should be of concern... many have done well riding the wave... my thinking is caution should be exercised when considering any car available in high volume, as there may not be enough interest to absorb all that is available
The truly rare and special pre-war cars (especially ones with racing history) seem to be doing just fine. Mass produced cars of the era are predictably suffering...
Brad, is there a way to short the classic car market (especially Ferrari)? I for one will readily admit I am ignorant about the high-end car market (other than macro considerations), so I ask the question in complete good faith. I've noticed that many of your posts have been very bearish about the current valuation at a level passion I've only seen in options trading forums (for long and shorts), so it lead me to think perhaps there was some financial instrument one may be able to gain from a crash in valuations. Appreciate your thoughts in advance.
Janis Joplins car has little to do with it being "car" and everyhtign to do with its owner, her image, the paintjob. Its 1 of 1, a cultural icon, a living memory of a great artist. There is no price for this that has anything to do with what a 356 is worth, or it even being a car. Just as the mona lisa has nothing to do with what old canvas is worth.
Curiosity question, with the 80's boom in classic car prices, was there a specific identifiable trigger? The general economic conditions are well known but there must have been specific people (or perhaps an article at the time) who decided that old cars could be a good investment and started trading in them. or was there an exceptional sale that set the market off?
everything is a relative value trade - prices reveal what's relatively cheap and what's relatively expensive f40s have appreciated in other cycles as well
Exactly, it's like anything that Steve McQueen owned is worth more to some people. John Lennon's RR was icinic and was sold for way more than any other comp RR. But this is what I expect from a chicken little.
I really think ferrari is different. it's global and has shown and incredible amount of brand recognition for decades even without traditional advertising/marketing avenues.
So now that global stock markets are in meltdown mode, how long will it be before we start seeing classic car owners selling to take profit and rotate into cheap stocks in the pursuit of growth?
I think that's right. I also think there will come a time when this affects assets. Not just classic cars, but collectibles in general. All have gone up hugely in value over the last couple of years. The growth rate is unsustainable. There must come a time when the hunt for yield will rebalance away from assets to stocks. Down 40 sounds plausible. China has already reached that point. Other markets are following. It will be interesting to see this play out.
What happened to the sports car market in the late 70's was vintage racing and big shows like Pebble Beach. Before that, old race cars were just that, old cars. Many, like GTO's and SWB's were considered to be "too fast for the street". That is, they were loud, overheated in traffic, had heavy clutches that were either on or off.. Bottom line is that nobody really wanted these old cars outside of a small group of very enthusiastic owners. The cars sat in barns and garages and basically collected dust. There wasn't anything you could do with it other than sit around and look at it. There were no such thing as track days and very few places where you could take a car like these out and exercise it. Club racing was structured around classes and these had nothing to do with FIA kind of endurance cars, so the classic endurance racing cars of the 50's and 60's were pretty much orphans But with the start of vintage racing in the late 70's and very upscale events like Pebble Beach, these older cars (which by then were becoming rare) had a place where they could be used on the track or shown. What happened is that what were just old cars quickly became valuable as pieces of art (which they are) and at the same time the cars that were being manufactured were getting slower, heavier and ugly. The fact that it took a fat wallet to take a car to Pebble Beach also added a cachet to owning of these old cars, where before that you could be a "grease monkey" and own one. The race cars got valuable first and that sucked up the value of very sporty street cars and now even relatively mundane and not very rare old cars are now considered "collectable" as the followers are looking to try to latch onto something that will grow in value. In typical bubble fashion it will eventually correct. The folks were greedy and held on too long will get caught holding the bag and lose their shirt along with the folks who were late to get in. Those who got our early will kick themselves for selling too soon, but will be glad they got out without getting mauled. ... lather, rinse, repeat....
Nice explanation! Brings back memories of seeing derelict Cobras laying around in garages before they became "cool" and 7 figure cars.
I can tell you precisely when the Ferrari market changed. In the summer of 1977, the FCA had their Annual Meet at Watkins Glen. Paul Pappalardo worked hard to get many of his friends to bring their competition Ferrari's to the event, as he had made arrangements with the track to have a "track event" (no racing) as part of the meet. The turn out was, for the day, amazing (three GTO's, LM's, TdF's, etc.). It was a memorable meet and one of the first to run the cars on a race track. As we were driving home from the Glen, I told Sue that the prices of competition Ferrari's were going to explode. Soon a GTO sold for $50,000, and we started to look for a race car we could afford. We missed a 330 LMB by two hours ($40,000), but got a GTB/C for $25,000. It all started right there.
You could have bought 3 of them for that price ten years earlier....... Image Unavailable, Please Login
Vintage V-12: Not GTB's but GTB/C's. Chinetti paid the factory $11,024 for our car, brand new. About the same price as a GTO.
Dyke was the FCA meet at Watkins Glen in 1977 held during the 6 Hour/CanAm weekend in July? If so I have some photos from that event. I attended the 6 hour during those years and camped in the infield behind the Paddock Club. In 1976 I crawled out of my pup tent early Saturday morning to find the del Rio 4cam parked right next to us--wasn't sure if I was dreaming or if I had gone to heaven!
