is the bubble due to burst?

Very interesting thanks

 

375+: No, the FCA meet was a standalone event. Actually, as I recall, there were four GTO's: Paul's, Jim Stollenwerk's, Chris Cord's and Carle Conway's.

 

Stoney's GTO was bought from Chris Cord (his brother in law). Might it have been Steve Earle's instead?

Jeff

 

I have often posted that this market is unsustainable and certain Ferrari.....Lussos , GTB's, Daytonas etc have definitely fallen back but yesterday I viewed Artcurial's Retromobile catalogue and could not believe their estimates........ I would guess 30% plus over today's perceived values. Not just Ferrari but everything from Fiats, BMWs, Lamborghini etc.......Do they know something we don't ? I have huge respect for Artcurial and judging by previous auctions I fully expect they will realise these prices............... This market confuses me.........

 

It's simple. Anytime there is a stall, and sale prices fatigue, they raise the prices. The auctions and such are just an illusionary tool to spread confidence. Remember, rising prices are the key to keep this ponzi scheme going. Without it, it crashes. If you want to see some of the things that the auctions and brokers are capable of. Just watch this documentary

The Great Contemporary Art Bubble (2010) - Documentary Movie Watch Online ~ Watch Latest Movies Online Free

 

On Monday, this thread will be THREE YEARS OLD...

 

Interesting article. I had not realized that there are actually funds that invest in the cars, rather than just well-heeled private investors/buyers.

'Passion investing' in classic cars is gaining speed

 

Like the old saying goes: "If it sounds too good to be true…"

In the real world, one should be thankful to merely break even on a car "investment."

 

After the market peaks and it becomes obvious that it has peaked, the natural inclination is to get out. Unfortunately that time has probably passed, but some folks have the numbers that these cars sold for in the recent past in their heads and that is what they are asking. Big values are put in the catalog to assuage the sellers and to get them to list their cars, and they reflect the wishful thinking of both the house and the sellers. If the cars are sold (even at no reserve) the house wins, if they don't sell they still get the up front fee so they still don't lose, they just don't make much, but they don't lose anything. If you get the idea that the auction house never loses, you're catching on. If there is a reserve and the car doesn't sell then that says plenty. You just have to wait and compare the selling price to the catalog price or the last bid and no sale amounts.

The head of the Viper program was once asked how many cars he wanted to sell. His answer was "one less than there is demand for"... For valuable old cars there's always a demand, but the only question is "at what price"?. Not too many folks are going to want to buy an asset that is declining in value, no matter how neat it is. When prices were rising (and in a spectacular fashion) then it was easy to "buy what you like" and enjoy it a bit and then get out of it with a profit. Those days are probably gone and now the smart money will sit back and wait for things to correct.

 

Bradwilliams, you are now saying the collectible car market is a Ponzi Scheme. Who's the mastermind at the top? Sergio?

I get we may be in a bubble, but saying fraud is also involved is really taking your prognostications to the next level..

 

Super Dave gone, Bradwilliams picks-up slack left in his wake...

 

True enthusiasts don't sell there cars when prices rise and then preach a fraudulent bubble because they think they think they figured out how to map the human genome via copy and paste subprime. Real enthusiasts hold their cars and walk in to buy the new FF when it comes out. Real enthusiasts congratulate each other on their latest acquisitions irrelevant of price or value.

 

I made 2 attempts to see the movie today. The first attempt wanted to install software claiming that I needed to watch the movie and locked Safari. The second attempt later in the day and going thru Google resulted in a thin/tall pop-up locking Safari and claiming to be from Apple saying my computer was under attack from two sources simultaneously and to call a number right away or I would be banned by Apple, blah, blah, blah. I had to force-quit both times and start in safe mode and reset Safari. BitDefender has not detected anything. Maybe this is a PC virus.

As much as I enjoy Brad's posts and point of view and would like to see the movie from the art market perspective, I urge caution!

 

Worked fine on my desktop last night. It does shoot up pop-ups in the beginning when watching from some of those file sharing sites. Nothing locked up or did anything wierd on my pc. Also, I'm pretty sure you need divx to watch it. Click close ad, close the popup, then press the play button.

 

Well, the last Ferrari bubble peaked 3 years after the crash of 1987 so if that is a guide we have a bit further to go! Also the 1990 drop in value was after the markets had increased the price of a Daytona tenfold in about six years.
What we have now is not as extreme imho.

 

What would concern me is when investment funds or other similar arrangements happen when the passion leaves the market .. the market will suffer. That is basically what happened back in 1990 and again in 2008 ..
Only those who have a passion for cars should buy them and as someone else said just be happy to enjoy them and when it time to say good buy breaking even is ok but then again making a few bucks is even better...but not mandatory for me...

 

Overall I agree with what you say but have never viewed the movie. Had this been any other auction house I wouldn't have been surprised. However Artcurial are a little off beat compared to the other houses. They have a very strong national following where they are perceived as price setters rather than chancers. A case of if Artcurial estimate at whatever price then this is where the market is. They have grown in stature and reputation during the past decade and I doubt they would chance losing this credibility by estimating at unattainable prices. Time will tell...

 

It isn't mandatory for most. Sofar I have never bought a car to make money on, I have always just bought the cars I like. Most of the "value increase" people speak of, is actually money sunk back into them in the form of repairs, maintenance, storage and cosmetics. It pays me back a bit for my dedication and time and that is nice, yet is something that just happens, it was never my intention. And I am not a seller... until you have actually sold anything, it is all just theoretical value anyway. Big asking prices are nice but there needs to be a deal for them to be real.

If it corrects the market might suffer a bit, mostly weeding out the bad stuff. Even after the 1990s crash the market was back about 8 years later (on average, not looking at the extremes).

 

Bradwilliams,

I'm 100% open to the possibility that, yes we are in a bubble. Nothing wrong to opine we are in an era of irrational exuberance, I said the same thing about real estate in 07' and profited handsomely. My musings directed to personal friends and urging caution, recommending they hold off until 'after' a correction. In my case, I was intimately involved in the real-estate market, so I had 'skin' in the game so to speak. If I hadn't, I wouldn't care. Heaven forbid espousing my opinions to a group a of new homeowners say in 06' at a cocktail party, that's a ticket to be the life of the party ain't it? haha

I've asked you

four
times
respectfully
now

Why do you desire a crash? (fifth time I've asked the question now) I get you may be in a situation where you have your eye on a particular model and may want a more attractive entry point. Was it the 308 GT4? Those went from ('can't give em away status' to 3X, in the last 4 years)

You have not given any indications you intend to reenter the market, I may be wrong; hence my repeated queries.

Just very curious what your motivations are.

 

I responded last time. It's two-fold

1. I want everyone who is an enthusiast to have the option to pay the fair and actual value of the car. Not an artificial one that has been manipulated by 2-300%
2. I don't like watching speculators dilute the passion and fun of the hobby by aiming to reduce cars to financial instruments like they did back in 89. Bad for the hobby

I know of no way to short the car market. But there was an opportunity in theory to short the art market through the sotheby's stock BID. But that has most likely come and gone. But I would assume there is more room for it to fall given the art market hasn't completely tanked out yet.

I have no intention of re-entering the market until it corrects. I"m grabbing a british sports car this winter which suits me just fine

Cheers

 

Thanks, Brad

I apologize if missed your answer. I didn't see it in any of the threads where I posted my questions.

I appreciate you chiming in here. Unfortunately, your response still did not answer my question. What car(s) do you wish to acquire that you feel is now not 'fair' value?

In my Ferrari club, the guys with Enzo (pre-1970) or supercars don't ruin the passion and fun for me. If anything, driving with 330s, 250s, or a La Ferrari is an awe-inspiring experience....that's a huge part of the fun of my bi-weekly drives. Most guys drive the usual, 3XX, or 4XX - and those have been pretty insulated from the run up in price, so I guess I can say it hasn't really affected me or my ability to enjoy the hobby. I'm assuming you must be involved in the very high-end. I myself never had the funds to drop 1.7 MM on a car, let alone 3MM, so perhaps you had planned to purchase a LaFerrari or 250 and were 'priced' out of the recent run-up? From what I've seen the 360, 430, 458, have been following the normal depreciation curve. You can get a splendid 360 for a reasonable price today.

We are fortunate that we usually have somebody to document our bi-weekly drives. Visit this thread and you'll see hundreds pictures for our excursions. Again, I'll say it again: the run-up in prices didn't seem to affect anybody from acquiring a non-Enzo car.. In April, I plan to drive again with ultra-high-end cars at the Annual Sonoma Ferrari Challenge invitation to all Ferrari owners, people bring all sorts of Ferrari; some worth xxMM, again - since I don't plan to drop millions of dollars on these cars (or have the ability for that matter) - I'm just happy for my friends that have that ability.

That was my understanding as well. Appreciate your thoughts, looking forward to your game plan once the 'crash' does arrive....if for nothing more then selfishly being educated on which cars you think would be good candidates for acquisition post correction. Let me know.

 

Not going to ruffle feathers and rehash some of the cars. You can leaf through this thread, many users have stated their opinions on what cars are worth what. I'll send you a PM of the cars that I am looking at.

Also, regarding the thread being 3 years old as of now: It began with some of the savvy members on Fchat who immediately called into question the stratospheric rise of the Dino and the prices being paid at auction. I was also in complete shock to see Dinos that high and thought it was unrealistic as well, but I had no idea what was to come. I was buying a Maranello and the broker had a Dino. Which by the way was a rusted out shell with a transplant engine that they were rebuilding. He told me the price, in which I erupted into laughter. At the time the thread began, the modern bubble had not yet began. It went into full swing in December of 2013, almost a year later. So the bubble on the modern regular production Ferraris has been in effect for 2 years now, not 3. Refer to the beginning of the thread. Lots of good insight being given.

 

No need to PM and don't worry about ruffling a few feathers (we're all grown men and we've been respectful/no personal attacks), Do you feel your Maranello is overpriced? What do you think is a reasonable 'real' price for say a average condition one? Again, just trying to understand your desire to have even your own asset fall. Just name one car you decided to forgo purchase because it is now not 'fair' value, I think this is a reasonable question. Here I'll go first to be fair, I would have loved to pick up a Dino when they were not even considered a real Ferrari, unfortunately I was not born yet. Okay your turn.

I got no skin in the game, my car has not appreciated and won't in the future, so this is completely unbiased from me.

 

Already sold it. Was not a fan of the car, too big, too soft, and the exhaust is whisper quiet. Spent a lot of time and money getting it right to sound the way I wanted. Pre-cats, X-pipe, and the car already had a capristo on it. Drove it like I stole it for over two years and still couldn't fall in love with it. I loved the looks of the car but at the end of the day it felt like a CL Mercedes with a Ferrari engine in it. Great car, just wasn't for me. PM Sent

 

That's too bad, I love the 550, I've heard some people say that *true* Ferrari enthusiasts don't drive GT cars like Maranello/612/FF - (or say a Mondial t) - but I never gave into that malarky.

Curious though, the 550 seemed to not have been that heavily bit by the 'irrational exuberance' last year it actually took a big dip. Definitely not the 'driver' condition 2 (which I my preference since I like to drive my cars and not garage queen it)

(wheels turning)

might be time to pick one of these future classics up....or if Brad is right, wait next (month/next year/next couple years) and you can pick one up for half price.

but let get back to my question again. Brad, with all due respect..what car do you plan to look at 'post' crash? I don't mean to be obtuse, but this is the sixth time I'm asking. I myself love the 612, but that has been immune from the runup. How about you?
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