is the bubble due to burst?

Ha! now those are some nice Webers!

 

CNBC Feb 4th 2016: Art market meltdown?
Video found here: CNBC Video
How will the art market meltdown affect collector Ferrari cars?

 

I clicked on your link and I got a video on options trading. No art market video to be found.

 

So now we see the emerging trend in this years car auction season is a downward step. When will this filter through to the retail sector? Will be interesting to see all those dealers who currently price as POA to 'Make us an offer' ...

 

Sorry about the video link not working. Try this one. If it doesn't work, if you google "CNBC Art Market Meltdown" you will see it under videos.

Art market meltdown?

 

Great video. Thanks.

 

The reporter blamed the art market results on "the Chinese not being at the auction." He also stated that "everything is now correlated" (which ignores timing). Oil began its descent over a year ago.

 

Robert Frank has been off base with a lot of his articles that I have read about the car market. I don't know anything about art but it wouldn't surprise me if he's off base with that, too.

 

Could never understand oils influence on the market. If oil goes down that puts millions of dollars into peoples pockets thru Lower transportation costs. That has a positive effect on 300 million consumers, that's way more than the negative effect for the few connected to the oil industry.

Just for my company I put about 70K a year in my pocket from lower diesel prices.

 

Oil price impact today is simple and has two primary factors people are focused on: 1) China / global growth prospects (as a coincident / leading indicator) and 2) US oil producers and companies that sell machinery into that sector.

You are correct that in other scenarios the inverse relationship may hold true. But today everyone was banking on US and China to carry global demand and investment growth.

 

It is my hope that the results of the upcoming election will correct at least one of those problems.

 

At an individual level, falling oil prices are probably a zero-sum game overall. Granted, $70K could buy a rather nice collector car. For the average Joe using 600 gallons of gasoline annually, the "savings" would likely be around $1,200 over the past year which likely got squandered away on Starbucks or extra Twinkies. My perception is that the percentage of oil & gas workers interested in classic cars is likely about the same as in the general population. Currently, individuals in the oil industry are scared for their jobs and deferring most non-essential purchases.

On a side note, I understand that Classic Car Dealers in Texas are still doing OK. I'm told that theirs is more of a national rather than a local clientele.

In the bigger picture, oil demand (and price) frequently signals future economic activity with implications for the general economy (and stock market). As related to the classic car market, my feeling is that oil prices are more coincidence rather than cause and effect.

 

That's precisely the point - the benefit of lower oil is widely (and perhaps thinly) spread across most of the population. Typical family saves a few hundred dollars and apparently a decent chunk of it has been spent on cigarettes and other stuff at gas stations. The pain of low oil prices is concentrated in a much smaller number of people directly involved the oil industry, many of them well-to-do and thus likely to have been buyers of luxury/classic cars.

 

POA really means "Please Offer Anything"

 

Price On Application.....w/c I always found rather snide & off-putting.....essentially, WE (dealers) are doing YOU a favor (selling car) and WE decide if we like you enough (apply) to even tell you the price.

I like your definition better

Jack

 

Big pushdown in the stock markets lets rich people feel less rich, and sows seeds of risk awareness. The examples in that video were rather weak imho, apart from that one Picasso.
Recently what I am seeing is rotation, out of oil and a lot of companies into harder assets, aka gold and silver. This is because of a start of inflation to me, with the QE in Japan and Europe going on that is kind of inevitable. In my opinion that rotation into hard assets will provide boost for those, and I see the classic car market as one of them next to gold and silver for the coming months/years. Yes there is doubt now but that is part of the anticipation process.

 

I thought that was the argument for classic cars(and other hard assets) back in 2009-2012. They tripled and quadrupled in an environment of very little inflation because of expectations of big inflation (and more QE) down the line. I think QE has already been priced it...

 

Not disagreeing with you but would say the real cause of the rapid appreciation is search for yield and return when bonds return little.

Speculative buying of certain assets create virtuous / vicious cycle of price appreciation. Buyers pile on for variety of reasons in hopes of catching the wave and in fear of missing the boat.

Debt at low cost makes people feel rich when their assets inflate. Very high debt (but at low cost) and very high asset value (based on other buyers feeling rich due to leveraged-buying globally) = high "net worth". But the net worth is highly suspect.

Like some people on here have said in the past, lots of the tech wealth out there was not founded in fundamentals. That is now being more broadly recognized by the market. The effect will be severe on much of the new wealth based on that sector and any spending leveraged to that wealth.

China, same story, but different basis, etc etc.

As some people on here have pointed out multiple times, tech and China are/were big bubbles and represented big risks for a correction.

The real "cause" of the bubble was not any one rational force. Cars didn't suddenly become more rare. People didn't suddenly become truly richer worldwide. China didn't materialize out of thin air. But the psychology of people is to look for reasons to support things they may not understand.

 

101 1961 Mercedes-Benz 190 SL No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 12104010020902- Française dorigine, troisième main- Voiture incro € 89,400 Sold
102 1982 Ferrari 308 GTSi No reserve € 53,640 Sold
103 1939 Peugeot 202 Cabriolet No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n°853981- Rare version cabriolet- Bel état de présentation- Peugeot, € 23,840 Sold
104 1955 Peugeot 203 C cabriolet No reserve € 65,560 Sold
105 1953 Renault Frégate Ondine Cabriolet par Ghia No reserve € 77,480 Sold
106 1937 Peugeot 201 M Cabriolet No reserve € 33,376 Sold
107 1971 Fiat 500 Lusso No reserve € 16,688 Sold
108 1971 Dino 246 GT Série M € 357,600 Sold
109 1971 Alfa Romeo 1750 No reserve € 27,416 Sold
110 1971 BMW 2002 cabriolet No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 2790182- 1 des 200 exemplaires construits- Entretien soigné - Bel ét € 61,984 Sold
111 1989 Ferrari 412 No reserve € 89,400 Sold
112 1986 Ferrari Testarossa € 154,960 Sold
113 1971 Lamborghini Espada Série II -- Unsold
114 1985 BMW M635 CSI No reserve € 41,720 Sold
115 1968 Morris Minor 1000 Traveller No reserve € 16,688 Sold
116 1986 Ferrari Testarossa Spider Valeo € 1,210,080 Sold
117 1980 Ferrari 512 BB -- Unsold
118 2010 Ferrari California coupé-cabriolet Pininfarina € 393,360 Sold
119 1995 Ferrari 512 TR -- Unsold
120 1972 Alfa Romeo Junior 1600 Zagato No reserve € 73,904 Sold
121 1963 Osca 1600 GT cabriolet par Fissore € 202,640 Sold
122 1965 ASA 1000 GT coupé € 135,888 Sold
123 1963 Italia 2000 € 89,400 Sold
124 1965 Alfa Romeo Giulia Sprint GTA € 441,040 Sold
125 1954 Jaguar XK 120 No reserve -- Unsold
126 1954 Jaguar XK 120 No reserve € 111,360 Sold
127 1952 Ford Comète No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° : 766Caisse n° : 767Moteur n°: 700109- Carrosserie Facel- Voiture rare, sur € 49,945 Sold
128 1960 Facel Vega HK 500 € 107,280 Sold
129 1951 Salmson G72 Coupé par Saoutchik € 184,760 Sold
130 1952 Delahaye 235 coupé Chapron € 298,000 Sold
131 1950 Talbot Lago Record Grand Sport cabriolet Graber € 202,640 Sold
132 1957 Facel Vega FV4 € 226,480 Sold
133 1954 Vega 54 Prototype V par Facel Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° FV-54-0002 - Première Facel Vega jamais produite - Véhicule impo € 500,640 Sold
134 1952 Delahaye 235 coupé Chapron Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 818040Carrosserie n° 7008- Un des trois Coupés Delahaye 235 construit p € 160,920 Sold
135 1957 Facel Vega FV4 Titre de circulation suisseChâssis n° FV4-57-235(Numéro FV4-57-NY8 frappé sur lauto car il sagit de la 8ème FV4 e € 268,200 Sold
136 1960 Maserati 3500 GT Vignale Spyder Capot Long € 548,320 Sold
137 1968 Ferrari 330 GTC No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 11589Moteur n°11589- Même propriétaire depuis 23 ans- Avant-dernière 33 € 536,400 Sold
138 1963 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Berlinetta -- Unsold
139 1971 Porsche 911 2,4 L S Targa € 154,960 Sold
140 1976 Porsche Carrera 2,7L Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 9116609116Moteur n° 6668129Type n° 911/83- Rare état dorigine- Historique co -- Unsold
141 1970 Porsche 911 2,2L E No reserve € 92,976 Sold
142 1988 Porsche 959 Carte grise allemandeChâssis n° WPOZZZ95ZJS900032- Vendue neuve à un multiple Champion du Monde de Moto-Cross- Moins d -- Unsold
143 1969 Lamborghini Islero S € 220,520 Sold
144 1966 Lamborghini 350 GT Touring -- Unsold
145 1978 Maserati Khamsin € 166,880 Sold
146 1969 Lamborghini Espada Série 1 -- Unsold
147 1971 De Tomaso Mangusta € 327,800 Sold
148 1975 Lamborghini Countach LP 400 coupé Periscopio € 1,072,800 Sold
149 1966 Austin Mini Cooper S No reserve € 41,720 Sold
150 1961 Austin Mini Countryman No reserve € 60,792 Sold
151 1998 Mini John Cooper Works MPI No reserve € 71,520 Sold
152 2001 Mini Cooper S Works n°50/50 No reserve € 53,640 Sold
153 1961 Austin Mini Countryman No reserve Carte grise française Châssis n° M AW4L72058- Une des toutes premières Countryman construites- C € 69,136 Sold
154 1957 Aston Martin DB2/4 MkIII coupé € 274,160 Sold
155 1959 AC Ace Bristol roadster € 321,840 Sold
156 1961 Aston Martin DB4 € 536,400 Sold
157 1963 Aston Martin DB4 Convertible Serie 5 € 1,473,200 Sold
158 1960 Lancia Flaminia Sport Zagato 2.5L Sans documents de circulation Châssis n° 824.03-2067Moteur n° 82300-5063- Elégant coupé italien- -- Unsold
159 1965 Maserati Mistral Spider Titre de circulation suédoisChâssis n° AM 109/S/085Moteur n° AM109/S/085- Un des tous premiers spider vend -- Unsold
160 1978 Maserati Khamsin -- Unsold
161 1972 Ligier JS2 No reserve € 143,040 Sold
162 1974 Alpine V6 Poisson Dieppois -- Unsold
163 1970 Alpine A110 1600 S Groupe IV - Ex Jean Saurel € 116,816 Sold
164 1963 Renault Dauphine 1093 No reserve € 42,912 Sold
165 1956 Alfa Romeo Giulietta Sprint No reserve € 45,296 Sold
166 1976 Lancia Stratos -- Unsold
167 1989 Ferrari Testarossa € 107,280 Sold
168 1985 Ferrari 308 GTS Quattrovalvole No reserve € 131,120 Sold
169 1972 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona € 953,600 Sold
170 1957 Ferrari 335 Sport Scaglietti € 32,075,200 Sold
171 1973 Fiat 500 Speziale No reserve € 21,456 Sold
172 1987 Ferrari 328 GTS No reserve Titre de circulation suisseChâssis n° ZFFCA20S000072001Moteur n°111 - Vendue neuve en suisse- Etat exce € 90,592 Sold
173 1996 Ferrari F355 Challenge € 176,416 Sold
174 1971 Ferrari Daytona 365 GTB/4 Spider, conversion par Straman -- Unsold
175 1903 Moonbeam III Dit Moonbeam of Fife No reserve € 1,107,120 Sold
176 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300B cabriolet D No reserve € 178,800 Sold
177 1970 Mercedes-Benz 280 SE 3.5L cabriolet € 345,680 Sold
178 1941 Pierre Faure Type PFA Biplace électrique, version luxe No reserve € 20,264 Sold
179 1951 Simca Huit Sport Coupé No reserve € 65,560 Sold
180 1949 Cisitalia 202 série A Cabriolet Farina € 286,080 Sold
181 1908 Sizaire & Naudin Type F1 8 HP Sport No reserve € 119,200 Sold
182 1927 Amilcar CGSs Biplace No reserve € 45,296 Sold
183 1920 Bugatti Type 13 € 357,600 Sold
184 1949 Georges Irat cabriolet par Labourdette No reserve € 57,216 Sold
185 1931/2012 Bucciali - Cord Type L29 modifié € 596,000 Sold
186 1956 Talbot Lago Sport 2500 € 381,440 Sold
187 1929 Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 Super Sport -- Unsold
188 1922 Stanley modèle 735 à vapeur, torpédo No reserve € 23,840 Sold
189 1936 Renault Viva Grand Sport cabriolet 3 places No reserve € 81,056 Sold
190 1966 Autobianchi Bianchina Panoramica No reserve € 15,496 Sold
191 1949 Cadillac serie 62 cabriolet No reserve € 38,144 Sold
192 1939 Graham Paige Type 97 supercharged cabriolet Pourtout Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 501 450- Histoire particulière, carrosserie P € 166,880 Sold
193 1947 Stanguellini 1100 coupé Motto -- Unsold
194 1962 Alfa Romeo Giulietta Sprint Zagato Coda tronca -- Unsold
195 1957 Alfa Romeo 1900 CSS Touring -- Unsold
196 1965 Alfa Romeo Giulia Sprint Speciale Bertone € 131,120 Sold
197 1926 Bentley 6,5 L Tourer Vanden Plas -- Unsold
198 1963 Maserati 3500 GTi Sebring € 327,800 Sold
199 1958 Ferrari 250 GT coupé Pinin Farina € 524,480 Sold
200 1960 Ferrari 250 GT cabriolet Pininfarina Série 2 avec hard-top inox unique -- Unsold
201 1965 Ferrari 330 GT 2+2 -- Unsold
202 1970 Lamborghini Miura S -- Unsold
203 1999 Lamborghini Diablo Roadster VT 5.7# ZA9RE31AOXLA121831999 - Lamborghini Diablo VT Roadster 5.7 -- Unsold
204 1971 Lamborghini 400 GT Jarama -- Unsold
205 1995 Porsche 911 Type 993 RS € 292,040 Sold
206 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera 2.7L RS Touring -- Unsold
207 1967 Porsche 2,0L S châssis court -- Unsold
208 1997 Porsche 993 GT2 Evo -- Unsold
209 2006 Porsche 997 Cup -- Unsold
210 1991 Lamborghini Diablo € 202,640 Sold
211 1995 Bugatti EB110 Super Sport € 929,760 Sold
212 1995 Bugatti EB110 SS Sport Competizione - Le Mans € 941,680 Sold
213 1999 Bugatti EB112 berline -- Unsold
214 1958 Facel Vega FV4 € 214,560 Sold
215 1958 Fiat Abarth 750 GT Zagato No reserve € 53,640 Sold
216 1975 Maserati Merak No reserve € 54,832 Sold
217 1993 Lancia Hyena -- Unsold
218 1977 Ferrari 512 BB -- Unsold
219 1973 Dino 246 GT € 357,600 Sold
220 1968 Maserati Ghibli 4.7L -- Unsold
221 1992 Porsche 964 Carrera RS € 202,640 Sold
222 1952 Lancia Aurelia B20 GT 2ème série € 149,000 Sold
223 1964 Ferrari 330 GT 2+2 -- Unsold
224 1951 Talbot Lago T26 Record Sport par Dubos € 262,240 Sold
301 1987 Citroën 2 CV AZKA No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° VF7AZKA00KA206940- Collection Trigano- 1ère main !- 11 206 km dorigi € 15,496 Sold
302 1964 Citroën Ami 6 Berline No reserve € 14,900 Sold
303 1968 Citroën ID 19 No reserve -- Unsold
304 1949 Citroën Traction 15-Six berline No reserve € 38,144 Sold
305 1934 Citroën Rosalie 8A berline No reserve € 11,920 Sold
306 1929 Citroën AC4 limousine No reserve € 9,536 Sold
307 1980 Citroën Méhari 4x4 No reserve € 50,064 Sold
308 1952 Citroën Traction 11 BL berline No reserve € 13,112 Sold
309 1953 Citroën Traction 11 B berline No reserve € 14,304 Sold
310 1939 Citroën Traction cabriolet 11 BL No reserve € 83,440 Sold
311 1935 Citroën Traction 7C coupé No reserve € 107,280 Sold
312 1932 Citroën C4 G torpédo No reserve € 41,720 Sold
313 1936 Citroën Rosalie 11 UA limousine avec séparation No reserve € 12,516 Sold
314 1922 Citroën 5 HP Type C torpédo No reserve € 14,304 Sold
315 1920 Citroën 10 HP Type A torpédo No reserve € 10,132 Sold
316 1929 Citroën P19 chenillette Kégresse plateau No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 19483- Collection Trigano- Rare version six € 35,760 Sold
317 1954 Citroën Traction 15-Six D limousine familiale No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 724203Moteur n° PK07235- Collection Triga € 24,436 Sold
318 1969 Citroën DS 21 M Pallas No reserve € 19,072 Sold
319 1968 Citroën ID 21 F Break No reserve € 71,520 Sold
320 1973 Citroën SM injection No reserve € 22,648 Sold
321 1976 Citroën CX Prestige No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 00MK0227Moteur n° 0798030765- Collection Trigano- Un des premiers e € 8,940 Sold
322 1986 Citroën BX 4TC No reserve € 61,984 Sold
323 1984 Citroën Visa 1000 Pistes No reserve € 38,144 Sold
324 1959 Citroën 2 CV AZ No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 1080070- Collection Trigano- Version ancienne- Exemplaire restauré- Myt € 17,880 Sold
325 1971 Citroën M35 prototype n°417 No reserve € 21,218 Sold
326 1973 Citroën Ami Super No reserve € 11,920 Sold
327 1969 Citroën Ami 8 Berline et un Solex No reserve Carte grise française- Deux véhicules pour le prix dun !- Bel état de présentation e € 7,152 Sold
328 1926 Citroën 5 HP Type C3 torpédo Trèfle No reserve € 20,264 Sold
329 1933 Citroën C4 G MFP torpédo commercial No reserve € 17,880 Sold
330 1954 Citroën Traction 15-Six H berline No reserve € 38,144 Sold
331 1969 Citroën DS 21 M Prestige No reserve € 34,568 Sold
332 1939 Citroën Traction 11 B cabriolet No reserve € 166,880 Sold
333 1974 Citroën DS 23 IE Pallas No reserve € 63,176 Sold
334 1988 Citroën CX GTi Turbo 2 No reserve € 13,708 Sold
335 1990 Citroën 2 CV 6 Charleston No reserve € 38,144 Sold
336 1964 Citroën 2 CV AK 350 fourgonnette No reserve € 12,516 Sold
337 1928 Citroën B14 G limousine No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 320845- Collection Trigano- Présentation correcte- Deux proprié € 7,748 Sold
338 1926 Citroën B12 torpédo commercial No reserve € 13,112 Sold
339 1925 Citroën B12 limousine woody No reserve € 27,416 Sold
340 1931 Citroën C4 G coach No reserve € 27,416 Sold
341 1931 Citroën C4 F berline No reserve € 11,920 Sold
342 1953 Citroën Traction 11 BL berline No reserve € 20,264 Sold
343 1930 Citroën C6 limousine No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 135Moteur n° 25279- Collection Trigano- Version six-cylindres, plu € 10,132 Sold
344 2007 Citroën C6 V6 2.7 hdi Sedan No reserve € 15,496 Sold
345 1936 Citroën Traction 7C berline No reserve € 14,304 Sold
346 1934 Citroën Rosalie 8A berline commerciale No reserve € 10,728 Sold
347 1930 Citroën AC4 limousine No reserve € 11,920 Sold
348 1961 Citroën 2 CV Sahara € 172,840 Sold

Catalog here: Rétromobile 2016 by Artcurial Motorcars by Artcurial - issuu

 

The problem with 8 years of unprecedented central bank intervention is that we no longer know what the true market price of anything is. That includes equities, classic cars, real property, etc. Ultimately we will find out, as central banks are out of ammo and natural economic forces will prevail, as they always do. We would have been better off if, in 2008, we had followed Andrew Mellon's 1930 advice - "liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate, liquidate the railroads, ..." [end of pontificating ]

 

Actually, you are onto something.

The Fed has been trying to placate markets at all costs. It is a difficult balancing act but there is likely too much overlap between the private market and those overseeing those markets (understatement of the century?)

I recall being on the trading desk under Greenspan and it was clear to anyone that paid an iota of attention, that the housing market was out of control. He tiptoed around it so carefully that he allowed a small monster to gorge and become something truly frightening.

Then again, the amount of flak people get when they spoil the party by saying the emperor actually has no clothes is well documented.

 

Thank you.

Not a good showing for Porsches...

 

I think its a little to early do call it a downward step/emerging trend. There has only been two major auctions and really the 2nd auction was of a smaller and more specific sampling.

I ran the same type of car only in a different color, same quality same body style etc... as I did two years ago. It brought the same exact price as it did two years ago. I mean the SAME EXACT price.


I will agree that the Porsche market is on a down step. Most of the dealers I converse with no longer are purchasing Porsches. Everyone knows it got a bit too silly and a bit too quickly. Dealers will take Porsche consignment... but they are much more careful about sticking their own money into the market. IF they do... its at a significantly lower price than most are looking for

 

Overstated.

That car was in my possesion prior to the auction and had significant needs. It wasn't a bad car at all, but it did need a full restoration. There were crumbly bits of rubber moldings coming off. I absolutely loved the car... but the next owner wanted to get paid for his time and aggravation for a full resto... and hopefully... the buyer will.

The best cars in the best condition bring the best money. Always.

Selling a car with needs narrows your buyer significantly.

Look at the 250 GTO that struggled to sell at 34 million when there have been a few that traded well over 50 million. How long ago was that? That wasn't due to market situations that was due to the car.

The Vignale is the same way. It was condition that dictated the price not a softening market.

 

Some of the best comments since the beginning of the thread in early 2013. Pretty much sums it up.

Truer words. The Porsches brought new meaning to the word froth