CNBC Feb 4th 2016: Art market meltdown? Video found here: CNBC Video How will the art market meltdown affect collector Ferrari cars?
So now we see the emerging trend in this years car auction season is a downward step. When will this filter through to the retail sector? Will be interesting to see all those dealers who currently price as POA to 'Make us an offer' ...
Sorry about the video link not working. Try this one. If it doesn't work, if you google "CNBC Art Market Meltdown" you will see it under videos. Art market meltdown?
The reporter blamed the art market results on "the Chinese not being at the auction." He also stated that "everything is now correlated" (which ignores timing). Oil began its descent over a year ago.
Robert Frank has been off base with a lot of his articles that I have read about the car market. I don't know anything about art but it wouldn't surprise me if he's off base with that, too.
Could never understand oils influence on the market. If oil goes down that puts millions of dollars into peoples pockets thru Lower transportation costs. That has a positive effect on 300 million consumers, that's way more than the negative effect for the few connected to the oil industry. Just for my company I put about 70K a year in my pocket from lower diesel prices.
Oil price impact today is simple and has two primary factors people are focused on: 1) China / global growth prospects (as a coincident / leading indicator) and 2) US oil producers and companies that sell machinery into that sector. You are correct that in other scenarios the inverse relationship may hold true. But today everyone was banking on US and China to carry global demand and investment growth.
At an individual level, falling oil prices are probably a zero-sum game overall. Granted, $70K could buy a rather nice collector car. For the average Joe using 600 gallons of gasoline annually, the "savings" would likely be around $1,200 over the past year which likely got squandered away on Starbucks or extra Twinkies. My perception is that the percentage of oil & gas workers interested in classic cars is likely about the same as in the general population. Currently, individuals in the oil industry are scared for their jobs and deferring most non-essential purchases. On a side note, I understand that Classic Car Dealers in Texas are still doing OK. I'm told that theirs is more of a national rather than a local clientele. In the bigger picture, oil demand (and price) frequently signals future economic activity with implications for the general economy (and stock market). As related to the classic car market, my feeling is that oil prices are more coincidence rather than cause and effect.
That's precisely the point - the benefit of lower oil is widely (and perhaps thinly) spread across most of the population. Typical family saves a few hundred dollars and apparently a decent chunk of it has been spent on cigarettes and other stuff at gas stations. The pain of low oil prices is concentrated in a much smaller number of people directly involved the oil industry, many of them well-to-do and thus likely to have been buyers of luxury/classic cars.
Price On Application.....w/c I always found rather snide & off-putting.....essentially, WE (dealers) are doing YOU a favor (selling car) and WE decide if we like you enough (apply) to even tell you the price. I like your definition better Jack
Big pushdown in the stock markets lets rich people feel less rich, and sows seeds of risk awareness. The examples in that video were rather weak imho, apart from that one Picasso. Recently what I am seeing is rotation, out of oil and a lot of companies into harder assets, aka gold and silver. This is because of a start of inflation to me, with the QE in Japan and Europe going on that is kind of inevitable. In my opinion that rotation into hard assets will provide boost for those, and I see the classic car market as one of them next to gold and silver for the coming months/years. Yes there is doubt now but that is part of the anticipation process.
I thought that was the argument for classic cars(and other hard assets) back in 2009-2012. They tripled and quadrupled in an environment of very little inflation because of expectations of big inflation (and more QE) down the line. I think QE has already been priced it...
Not disagreeing with you but would say the real cause of the rapid appreciation is search for yield and return when bonds return little. Speculative buying of certain assets create virtuous / vicious cycle of price appreciation. Buyers pile on for variety of reasons in hopes of catching the wave and in fear of missing the boat. Debt at low cost makes people feel rich when their assets inflate. Very high debt (but at low cost) and very high asset value (based on other buyers feeling rich due to leveraged-buying globally) = high "net worth". But the net worth is highly suspect. Like some people on here have said in the past, lots of the tech wealth out there was not founded in fundamentals. That is now being more broadly recognized by the market. The effect will be severe on much of the new wealth based on that sector and any spending leveraged to that wealth. China, same story, but different basis, etc etc. As some people on here have pointed out multiple times, tech and China are/were big bubbles and represented big risks for a correction. The real "cause" of the bubble was not any one rational force. Cars didn't suddenly become more rare. People didn't suddenly become truly richer worldwide. China didn't materialize out of thin air. But the psychology of people is to look for reasons to support things they may not understand.
101 1961 Mercedes-Benz 190 SL No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 12104010020902- Française dorigine, troisième main- Voiture incro 89,400 Sold 102 1982 Ferrari 308 GTSi No reserve 53,640 Sold 103 1939 Peugeot 202 Cabriolet No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n°853981- Rare version cabriolet- Bel état de présentation- Peugeot, 23,840 Sold 104 1955 Peugeot 203 C cabriolet No reserve 65,560 Sold 105 1953 Renault Frégate Ondine Cabriolet par Ghia No reserve 77,480 Sold 106 1937 Peugeot 201 M Cabriolet No reserve 33,376 Sold 107 1971 Fiat 500 Lusso No reserve 16,688 Sold 108 1971 Dino 246 GT Série M 357,600 Sold 109 1971 Alfa Romeo 1750 No reserve 27,416 Sold 110 1971 BMW 2002 cabriolet No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 2790182- 1 des 200 exemplaires construits- Entretien soigné - Bel ét 61,984 Sold 111 1989 Ferrari 412 No reserve 89,400 Sold 112 1986 Ferrari Testarossa 154,960 Sold 113 1971 Lamborghini Espada Série II -- Unsold 114 1985 BMW M635 CSI No reserve 41,720 Sold 115 1968 Morris Minor 1000 Traveller No reserve 16,688 Sold 116 1986 Ferrari Testarossa Spider Valeo 1,210,080 Sold 117 1980 Ferrari 512 BB -- Unsold 118 2010 Ferrari California coupé-cabriolet Pininfarina 393,360 Sold 119 1995 Ferrari 512 TR -- Unsold 120 1972 Alfa Romeo Junior 1600 Zagato No reserve 73,904 Sold 121 1963 Osca 1600 GT cabriolet par Fissore 202,640 Sold 122 1965 ASA 1000 GT coupé 135,888 Sold 123 1963 Italia 2000 89,400 Sold 124 1965 Alfa Romeo Giulia Sprint GTA 441,040 Sold 125 1954 Jaguar XK 120 No reserve -- Unsold 126 1954 Jaguar XK 120 No reserve 111,360 Sold 127 1952 Ford Comète No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° : 766Caisse n° : 767Moteur n°: 700109- Carrosserie Facel- Voiture rare, sur 49,945 Sold 128 1960 Facel Vega HK 500 107,280 Sold 129 1951 Salmson G72 Coupé par Saoutchik 184,760 Sold 130 1952 Delahaye 235 coupé Chapron 298,000 Sold 131 1950 Talbot Lago Record Grand Sport cabriolet Graber 202,640 Sold 132 1957 Facel Vega FV4 226,480 Sold 133 1954 Vega 54 Prototype V par Facel Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° FV-54-0002 - Première Facel Vega jamais produite - Véhicule impo 500,640 Sold 134 1952 Delahaye 235 coupé Chapron Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 818040Carrosserie n° 7008- Un des trois Coupés Delahaye 235 construit p 160,920 Sold 135 1957 Facel Vega FV4 Titre de circulation suisseChâssis n° FV4-57-235(Numéro FV4-57-NY8 frappé sur lauto car il sagit de la 8ème FV4 e 268,200 Sold 136 1960 Maserati 3500 GT Vignale Spyder Capot Long 548,320 Sold 137 1968 Ferrari 330 GTC No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 11589Moteur n°11589- Même propriétaire depuis 23 ans- Avant-dernière 33 536,400 Sold 138 1963 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Berlinetta -- Unsold 139 1971 Porsche 911 2,4 L S Targa 154,960 Sold 140 1976 Porsche Carrera 2,7L Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 9116609116Moteur n° 6668129Type n° 911/83- Rare état dorigine- Historique co -- Unsold 141 1970 Porsche 911 2,2L E No reserve 92,976 Sold 142 1988 Porsche 959 Carte grise allemandeChâssis n° WPOZZZ95ZJS900032- Vendue neuve à un multiple Champion du Monde de Moto-Cross- Moins d -- Unsold 143 1969 Lamborghini Islero S 220,520 Sold 144 1966 Lamborghini 350 GT Touring -- Unsold 145 1978 Maserati Khamsin 166,880 Sold 146 1969 Lamborghini Espada Série 1 -- Unsold 147 1971 De Tomaso Mangusta 327,800 Sold 148 1975 Lamborghini Countach LP 400 coupé Periscopio 1,072,800 Sold 149 1966 Austin Mini Cooper S No reserve 41,720 Sold 150 1961 Austin Mini Countryman No reserve 60,792 Sold 151 1998 Mini John Cooper Works MPI No reserve 71,520 Sold 152 2001 Mini Cooper S Works n°50/50 No reserve 53,640 Sold 153 1961 Austin Mini Countryman No reserve Carte grise française Châssis n° M AW4L72058- Une des toutes premières Countryman construites- C 69,136 Sold 154 1957 Aston Martin DB2/4 MkIII coupé 274,160 Sold 155 1959 AC Ace Bristol roadster 321,840 Sold 156 1961 Aston Martin DB4 536,400 Sold 157 1963 Aston Martin DB4 Convertible Serie 5 1,473,200 Sold 158 1960 Lancia Flaminia Sport Zagato 2.5L Sans documents de circulation Châssis n° 824.03-2067Moteur n° 82300-5063- Elégant coupé italien- -- Unsold 159 1965 Maserati Mistral Spider Titre de circulation suédoisChâssis n° AM 109/S/085Moteur n° AM109/S/085- Un des tous premiers spider vend -- Unsold 160 1978 Maserati Khamsin -- Unsold 161 1972 Ligier JS2 No reserve 143,040 Sold 162 1974 Alpine V6 Poisson Dieppois -- Unsold 163 1970 Alpine A110 1600 S Groupe IV - Ex Jean Saurel 116,816 Sold 164 1963 Renault Dauphine 1093 No reserve 42,912 Sold 165 1956 Alfa Romeo Giulietta Sprint No reserve 45,296 Sold 166 1976 Lancia Stratos -- Unsold 167 1989 Ferrari Testarossa 107,280 Sold 168 1985 Ferrari 308 GTS Quattrovalvole No reserve 131,120 Sold 169 1972 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona 953,600 Sold 170 1957 Ferrari 335 Sport Scaglietti 32,075,200 Sold 171 1973 Fiat 500 Speziale No reserve 21,456 Sold 172 1987 Ferrari 328 GTS No reserve Titre de circulation suisseChâssis n° ZFFCA20S000072001Moteur n°111 - Vendue neuve en suisse- Etat exce 90,592 Sold 173 1996 Ferrari F355 Challenge 176,416 Sold 174 1971 Ferrari Daytona 365 GTB/4 Spider, conversion par Straman -- Unsold 175 1903 Moonbeam III Dit Moonbeam of Fife No reserve 1,107,120 Sold 176 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300B cabriolet D No reserve 178,800 Sold 177 1970 Mercedes-Benz 280 SE 3.5L cabriolet 345,680 Sold 178 1941 Pierre Faure Type PFA Biplace électrique, version luxe No reserve 20,264 Sold 179 1951 Simca Huit Sport Coupé No reserve 65,560 Sold 180 1949 Cisitalia 202 série A Cabriolet Farina 286,080 Sold 181 1908 Sizaire & Naudin Type F1 8 HP Sport No reserve 119,200 Sold 182 1927 Amilcar CGSs Biplace No reserve 45,296 Sold 183 1920 Bugatti Type 13 357,600 Sold 184 1949 Georges Irat cabriolet par Labourdette No reserve 57,216 Sold 185 1931/2012 Bucciali - Cord Type L29 modifié 596,000 Sold 186 1956 Talbot Lago Sport 2500 381,440 Sold 187 1929 Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 Super Sport -- Unsold 188 1922 Stanley modèle 735 à vapeur, torpédo No reserve 23,840 Sold 189 1936 Renault Viva Grand Sport cabriolet 3 places No reserve 81,056 Sold 190 1966 Autobianchi Bianchina Panoramica No reserve 15,496 Sold 191 1949 Cadillac serie 62 cabriolet No reserve 38,144 Sold 192 1939 Graham Paige Type 97 supercharged cabriolet Pourtout Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 501 450- Histoire particulière, carrosserie P 166,880 Sold 193 1947 Stanguellini 1100 coupé Motto -- Unsold 194 1962 Alfa Romeo Giulietta Sprint Zagato Coda tronca -- Unsold 195 1957 Alfa Romeo 1900 CSS Touring -- Unsold 196 1965 Alfa Romeo Giulia Sprint Speciale Bertone 131,120 Sold 197 1926 Bentley 6,5 L Tourer Vanden Plas -- Unsold 198 1963 Maserati 3500 GTi Sebring 327,800 Sold 199 1958 Ferrari 250 GT coupé Pinin Farina 524,480 Sold 200 1960 Ferrari 250 GT cabriolet Pininfarina Série 2 avec hard-top inox unique -- Unsold 201 1965 Ferrari 330 GT 2+2 -- Unsold 202 1970 Lamborghini Miura S -- Unsold 203 1999 Lamborghini Diablo Roadster VT 5.7# ZA9RE31AOXLA121831999 - Lamborghini Diablo VT Roadster 5.7 -- Unsold 204 1971 Lamborghini 400 GT Jarama -- Unsold 205 1995 Porsche 911 Type 993 RS 292,040 Sold 206 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera 2.7L RS Touring -- Unsold 207 1967 Porsche 2,0L S châssis court -- Unsold 208 1997 Porsche 993 GT2 Evo -- Unsold 209 2006 Porsche 997 Cup -- Unsold 210 1991 Lamborghini Diablo 202,640 Sold 211 1995 Bugatti EB110 Super Sport 929,760 Sold 212 1995 Bugatti EB110 SS Sport Competizione - Le Mans 941,680 Sold 213 1999 Bugatti EB112 berline -- Unsold 214 1958 Facel Vega FV4 214,560 Sold 215 1958 Fiat Abarth 750 GT Zagato No reserve 53,640 Sold 216 1975 Maserati Merak No reserve 54,832 Sold 217 1993 Lancia Hyena -- Unsold 218 1977 Ferrari 512 BB -- Unsold 219 1973 Dino 246 GT 357,600 Sold 220 1968 Maserati Ghibli 4.7L -- Unsold 221 1992 Porsche 964 Carrera RS 202,640 Sold 222 1952 Lancia Aurelia B20 GT 2ème série 149,000 Sold 223 1964 Ferrari 330 GT 2+2 -- Unsold 224 1951 Talbot Lago T26 Record Sport par Dubos 262,240 Sold 301 1987 Citroën 2 CV AZKA No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° VF7AZKA00KA206940- Collection Trigano- 1ère main !- 11 206 km dorigi 15,496 Sold 302 1964 Citroën Ami 6 Berline No reserve 14,900 Sold 303 1968 Citroën ID 19 No reserve -- Unsold 304 1949 Citroën Traction 15-Six berline No reserve 38,144 Sold 305 1934 Citroën Rosalie 8A berline No reserve 11,920 Sold 306 1929 Citroën AC4 limousine No reserve 9,536 Sold 307 1980 Citroën Méhari 4x4 No reserve 50,064 Sold 308 1952 Citroën Traction 11 BL berline No reserve 13,112 Sold 309 1953 Citroën Traction 11 B berline No reserve 14,304 Sold 310 1939 Citroën Traction cabriolet 11 BL No reserve 83,440 Sold 311 1935 Citroën Traction 7C coupé No reserve 107,280 Sold 312 1932 Citroën C4 G torpédo No reserve 41,720 Sold 313 1936 Citroën Rosalie 11 UA limousine avec séparation No reserve 12,516 Sold 314 1922 Citroën 5 HP Type C torpédo No reserve 14,304 Sold 315 1920 Citroën 10 HP Type A torpédo No reserve 10,132 Sold 316 1929 Citroën P19 chenillette Kégresse plateau No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 19483- Collection Trigano- Rare version six 35,760 Sold 317 1954 Citroën Traction 15-Six D limousine familiale No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 724203Moteur n° PK07235- Collection Triga 24,436 Sold 318 1969 Citroën DS 21 M Pallas No reserve 19,072 Sold 319 1968 Citroën ID 21 F Break No reserve 71,520 Sold 320 1973 Citroën SM injection No reserve 22,648 Sold 321 1976 Citroën CX Prestige No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 00MK0227Moteur n° 0798030765- Collection Trigano- Un des premiers e 8,940 Sold 322 1986 Citroën BX 4TC No reserve 61,984 Sold 323 1984 Citroën Visa 1000 Pistes No reserve 38,144 Sold 324 1959 Citroën 2 CV AZ No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 1080070- Collection Trigano- Version ancienne- Exemplaire restauré- Myt 17,880 Sold 325 1971 Citroën M35 prototype n°417 No reserve 21,218 Sold 326 1973 Citroën Ami Super No reserve 11,920 Sold 327 1969 Citroën Ami 8 Berline et un Solex No reserve Carte grise française- Deux véhicules pour le prix dun !- Bel état de présentation e 7,152 Sold 328 1926 Citroën 5 HP Type C3 torpédo Trèfle No reserve 20,264 Sold 329 1933 Citroën C4 G MFP torpédo commercial No reserve 17,880 Sold 330 1954 Citroën Traction 15-Six H berline No reserve 38,144 Sold 331 1969 Citroën DS 21 M Prestige No reserve 34,568 Sold 332 1939 Citroën Traction 11 B cabriolet No reserve 166,880 Sold 333 1974 Citroën DS 23 IE Pallas No reserve 63,176 Sold 334 1988 Citroën CX GTi Turbo 2 No reserve 13,708 Sold 335 1990 Citroën 2 CV 6 Charleston No reserve 38,144 Sold 336 1964 Citroën 2 CV AK 350 fourgonnette No reserve 12,516 Sold 337 1928 Citroën B14 G limousine No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 320845- Collection Trigano- Présentation correcte- Deux proprié 7,748 Sold 338 1926 Citroën B12 torpédo commercial No reserve 13,112 Sold 339 1925 Citroën B12 limousine woody No reserve 27,416 Sold 340 1931 Citroën C4 G coach No reserve 27,416 Sold 341 1931 Citroën C4 F berline No reserve 11,920 Sold 342 1953 Citroën Traction 11 BL berline No reserve 20,264 Sold 343 1930 Citroën C6 limousine No reserve Carte grise françaiseChâssis n° 135Moteur n° 25279- Collection Trigano- Version six-cylindres, plu 10,132 Sold 344 2007 Citroën C6 V6 2.7 hdi Sedan No reserve 15,496 Sold 345 1936 Citroën Traction 7C berline No reserve 14,304 Sold 346 1934 Citroën Rosalie 8A berline commerciale No reserve 10,728 Sold 347 1930 Citroën AC4 limousine No reserve 11,920 Sold 348 1961 Citroën 2 CV Sahara 172,840 Sold Catalog here: Rétromobile 2016 by Artcurial Motorcars by Artcurial - issuu
The problem with 8 years of unprecedented central bank intervention is that we no longer know what the true market price of anything is. That includes equities, classic cars, real property, etc. Ultimately we will find out, as central banks are out of ammo and natural economic forces will prevail, as they always do. We would have been better off if, in 2008, we had followed Andrew Mellon's 1930 advice - "liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate, liquidate the railroads, ..." [end of pontificating ]
Actually, you are onto something. The Fed has been trying to placate markets at all costs. It is a difficult balancing act but there is likely too much overlap between the private market and those overseeing those markets (understatement of the century?) I recall being on the trading desk under Greenspan and it was clear to anyone that paid an iota of attention, that the housing market was out of control. He tiptoed around it so carefully that he allowed a small monster to gorge and become something truly frightening. Then again, the amount of flak people get when they spoil the party by saying the emperor actually has no clothes is well documented.
I think its a little to early do call it a downward step/emerging trend. There has only been two major auctions and really the 2nd auction was of a smaller and more specific sampling. I ran the same type of car only in a different color, same quality same body style etc... as I did two years ago. It brought the same exact price as it did two years ago. I mean the SAME EXACT price. I will agree that the Porsche market is on a down step. Most of the dealers I converse with no longer are purchasing Porsches. Everyone knows it got a bit too silly and a bit too quickly. Dealers will take Porsche consignment... but they are much more careful about sticking their own money into the market. IF they do... its at a significantly lower price than most are looking for
Overstated. That car was in my possesion prior to the auction and had significant needs. It wasn't a bad car at all, but it did need a full restoration. There were crumbly bits of rubber moldings coming off. I absolutely loved the car... but the next owner wanted to get paid for his time and aggravation for a full resto... and hopefully... the buyer will. The best cars in the best condition bring the best money. Always. Selling a car with needs narrows your buyer significantly. Look at the 250 GTO that struggled to sell at 34 million when there have been a few that traded well over 50 million. How long ago was that? That wasn't due to market situations that was due to the car. The Vignale is the same way. It was condition that dictated the price not a softening market.
Some of the best comments since the beginning of the thread in early 2013. Pretty much sums it up. Truer words. The Porsches brought new meaning to the word froth
