Predicted FF bottom for early used ones?

spot on in my opinion

 

sorry about that .. apparently he was trying to make a deal On a 911 TurboS and avoid taking a car in trade they didn't want (the FF) I do believe they later sold it for more if that helps...

 

lol apology accepted!
what an insane amount of car for 150k! and low miles too - someone got a hell of a toy to play with.

 

An excellent analysis

 

Well said my friend

 

Why ask for forgiveness. Your question is interesting to many. If someone doesn't like at read click
Next.

Value and money are personal. Many have participated in several cycles of modification /refresh and have seen the impact on prices. Cars are a commodity and depreciating assets. Timing is important. You are right.

The ff will follow
It's own curve depreciating like other Ferrari 2+2 12 cylinders. Great cars. Great values. Perhaps it will take another 1-2 years to reach 45 to 50 percent msrp.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Hey I like the thread. Don't like it -click
next. Don't apologize.

Cars are depreciating assets and as such they follow their own curve. The impact of factors such as new models ,supply , demand, availability/cost of financing, maintenance cost etc all contribute. The question for a person is what value to you put on your money and what cost do you accept in your time possession relationship. Funny world the Ferrari world. We each have our niche in the process. Where we sit on the curve and where we get off is personal choice. The first Phase in the Ferrari world is often driven most by scarcity and the last part
Is also driven by scarcity ( vintage and appreciating ). In between there are some consistent trends but the relative magnitudes may differ.

So getting back to your question is what does our group knowledge predict the impact of the redesign/modificato will
Have on prices in the near term ?

I'll go- as outlined in the time frame over the next 12 months FF owners won't dump their cars and creat a glut. But perhaps those waiting with early cars on the fence will sell now for the last FFs or the first GTC4s.

What's the bottom ? 40-45 % msrp in the first 12-15 years. Not bad for a
Depreciating asset.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I like the thread. If you don't skip it, click next, move on. There are many inane threads that you don't have to read.
KY- soldier- Don't apologize for asking a question that others have answered.

Cars, even Ferraris are depreciating assets. As such they are impacted by many factors including supply, demand, availability of financing costs for financing, desirability, maintenance as well as brand value. Very funny world in Ferrariland. Each of us occupies the area of the depreciation curve that we feel comfortable on. In the beginning value is largely driven by newness and scarcity. In the end values driven by classicness and scarcity as well and is it appreciating phase if we are lucky. In between there some consistent observations which help us decide what we want to do and how we can assess our cost of ownership.

So your question was What does the collective community think that the depreciation will look like in the next 12 months? Which factors will predominant (supply?desirabilty?) and what impact will thiese have on the current market given the current economic conditions? That was the one thing mentioned above was important was the stock market. The economic conditions impact luxury item's value very clearly. While the .1%( or 0.01%) may not care, the 1% do.

I agree with you that it is painful to jump in at the wrong time. The factors above suggest as others mentioned that we are I likely at an inflection point in the depreciation curve- the next 12 months with additional cars coming on the market from either trade in for last FFs around or new GTC4s. It is likely the next 4 years for them to bottom at approximately 40% of MSRP relatively speaking. Do the old rules apply? They do for now. But as Ferrari builds more cars and people use them as daily drivers many will be high mileage cars ( for ferraris) and this change also will impact value. The average miles on the FF s on the market are higher than previous Ferraris by far. Think about a 5 year old FF with 60k miles. Unheard of for aFerrari. We will see how the changes impact the curves.

BTW thank you for your service. What is the quote from a few good men?
Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You?

Thank you.

 

Any FF with a good build (popular to others on the someday resale, not just to you) under say $210,000 with reasonable miles is not going to kill anyone who can actually afford such a thing in the first place. I was looking for price, then I went for the car I liked, at a good price but 40,000 over my "budget". A budget in real life is an arbitrary goal ... ask anyone with a budget Much better choice is to get a car you love and will keep and enjoy than worry about the exact dollars. Financing 190 vs 160 is not a big difference.

And if you PM me your desires I have a pretty good spreadsheet here still from last years cars on the market, will offer suggestions.

 

The one point that is missing, slightly, here is we are now talking about bombproof digital age Ferraris not analogue examples such as 612, 360, 430 etc etc. Since the Cali which is still holding up very well despite the Cali T with 09s still commanding 60% of new price the public perception of Ferraris has changed. It is now not such a fearful prospect and depreciation is better than market average. OK the sums involved are higher but for a UK FF sold in 2012 at 268k to still command 165k is very encouraging from the percentage point of view. Early 458s are still commanding 65% of new price despite the doom mongers predictions. My bet is a 2012 FF in the Uk by summer 2017 will still command 150 plus, spec and mileage will impact plus or minus 10k for sure but used Lussos will be near twice that. We are in a different place now with Ferraris. An F car could be for life even as a daily.

 

Agree with CrazyMD analysis.

I think there are some shortcomings to text based exchanges and things can get out of hand pretty easily. Two thoughts I wish to convey:

1. KY _Soldier- Thank you for your service. I understand your point about being not owed but I think when you put your life on the line for our country then I actually think you are entitled to our gratitude and appreciation. I don't know if we can ever imagine things you have to do or go through but you should know its appreciated.

2. I think there is somewhat of a depreciation floor to any Ferrari. I'm not sure where that is for the V12 4 seaters- but will desirable 612s ever go below 70 (not cars that need a lot of TLC)? I doubt it. And as ttforcefed mentioned above, the FF is a ton of car for the money at even 2x that number. So while not being an expert, just a fellow passionate Ferrari enthusiast, I think there is a good chance early higher mileage FFs will hold up for quite some time. In your time frame of the next few months I don't think you will see much lower than 170.

No matter what I wish you luck and success in your pursuits.

 

+1

 

In the US early Cali already trade 40% of new price... 10 year old cars tend to settle lower than 40%, more like 30-35% and even lower for the regular 612.

I don't see the issue about threads on depreciation. Some people need to know. If you don't like it don't read it...

 

Two days ago there were 60 (!) FFs listed on cars.com. Autotrader had 57 today. Although many of those are likely on cars.com as well, that is still an enormous supply.

 

It's been in that range a year at least. 50-60. The 2012s that came off of warranty in many cases.

 

ky no need to apologize - your OP was genuine and inquisitive - it wasn't a dooms day pontification by any means and your service is something that shld ALWAYS be appreciated and acknowledged by those of us who reap the benefits and freedoms guys like you make possible.

I agree with the posts here regarding the FF and finding one that allows you to sleep at night matters. I think the one thing that you can definitely take away from this thread is that anyone who has bought an FF has loved the car and the miles driven. Clearly I haven't enjoyed the unrealized depreciation but I truly intend ok keeping my cars for decades so its really irrelevant. That being said you can definitely find an amazing car for somewhere between 150 and 250k. Guys like brian have done a ton of work accumulating market data and that's a great resource.

If you have the ability to enter the market here, I say find one you like and bid 20% lower than the ask and see what happens. The worst a dealer can say is no. Good luck.

 

There are four times as many California's, but the dealers are holding fast on pricing, gradual curve. 60 FF's though has got to be a much higher percentage of copies delivered to the US than 240 Cali's. As long as 95% of deals are done through exotic dealers, the market will take a long time to adjust. That's ultimately good for all owners. Hate to see anyone take a bath. God bless the new Ferrari buyers. Without them, I wouldn't get one six years used, my average to date I think, maybe 7. I love the 2+2's and can't help looking at FF's but have always had mixed feelings, at best. There's gotta be a goodly percentage of like buyers who would rather skip the FF. Now the question isn't when will the FF be cheap enough for a guy like me to accept the back end, but how cheap would they need to get for me not to wait a few more years for what the FF should have been from the beginning.

 

What does that even mean?

Should have been what for a full on, all new tech, V12 2+2 with rain and snow and luggage? $300 loaded? It's a 350 car and the new one 375. In line with a 250 Cali T that's an engineering and aesthetic joke by comparison.

Meanwhile ... clock is ticking. Cars depreciate, just do it or don't but to pretend you know what Ferrari should have done with pricing is pretty bold.

A lot of experts here.

 

Sorry if I struck a nerve, but there's no reason to play obtuse. My point bringing up the Cali, in case you really aren't getting the point, is that a large qty on the market doesn't always dictate a precipitous decline in ask price. Hope that's clearer.

It's generally agreed the hind quarters of the FF were ill conceived. Defend the design if you feel you must, but in my opinion, the redesign is exactly what the doctor ordered in 2012. Expert? Well, I'm the target market. I'm starting to shop for my fifth used Ferrari, and the FF was kinda sorta on the list and now kinda sorta isn't. That, too, if I might possibly have a common opinion, will ultimately affect resale as well, just not in the next few months.

Hope that was clearer for you, Brian.

 

"Generally agreed" by who?

Taste is obviously subjective ... PF and I would agree that you have little. I live in the world of artists, not men on viagra, and we love the FF lines and complete styling. It has feminine balance, and integrity ... a bold/mature design from PF. Not trying so hard to be macho and make the corporation money.

The rear end of the Lusso is messy and ugly. 4 lights over 4 pipes and the plastic below in 3 stages? Why 4 lights at all? The car looks like many cars in one, interior modern/rear dated/sides Mustang ... it's a mess. Have at it if you want to wait 7-8 years to get one. Yet as you're a 7 years used buyer it's not targeted to you at all.

I look forward to 20 years from now, history will be kind to the FF. The Lusso will look like a confusion of identity in a stock market driven era for Ferrari.

 

I dont see why people get so butt hurt by these type of threads. A lot of times they are started by people who want to buy the model in question but might not super liquid that they could just shrug a 30% hair cut over a year. So they inquire on a Ferrari forum where they are more likely to find other's people opinion that matter. A Ferrari forum is not simply a place to say "GLWS" or "fantastic car, well done."

 

Well said.

Now that my GTC4Lusso boner has worn off a little bit, I'm back to thinking about a nicely spec'ed FF within the next couple years.