Impact on second hand F12 and FF models once TDF and V2.0 become prolific

The UK market seems to be in a bubble of its own, I imagine due to RHD and ultimately a limited supply. Will defer to the UK residents to comment on that market specifically

More generally, I do not anticipate the F12tdf having any impact on F12 and FF "markets", aside from perhaps people who have one or the other trading in/up, which may increase supply.

We are on our 2nd FF and had an F12, both are astonishingly great cars. The number of Fchat posters who complain about the looks or depreciation outnumber owners probably 5:1, hence the endless threads. Owners for the most part seem to love the cars and enjoy them... The F12 is amazing, if we weren't getting a tdf I would probably move to get another one.

 

Could not agree with your more Entropy; love our (my FF) and looking to add an F12 to the mix. The F12 seems like the only car out there that could actually make me feel like I am driving some "better" then the FF as everything I have tried the past few months has been such a let down. Each time I try to accompany the FF to something different (911 Turbo, M4/M6, Cayman GT4, Huracan, R8) I walk away shaking my head thinking I am so screwed. The FF has spoiled me to death and I really feel the only thing out there that can "top" it is an F12.

Scraggy the FF/F12s in Canada are still holding very strong!

 

The economy and government regulation are going to have a bigger impact than any move Ferrari might make. They can influence supply slightly, but hard for them to influence demand the way that those factors do.

 

If you read Ferrari's S-1 (securities registration statement) you will see they describe the model cycle (every 5-6 years; 2 generations per platform), demand pattern (high demand years 1&2, tapers, refreshed with an end of life with a limited edition model) and pricing strategy (increase with enhanced features) for their mainstream models (v8s, v12s). Perhaps nothing new here, but a clear statement that they understand the demand and manage commensurately.

The doc also contains details of production volumes to be able to estimate rough volumes for f12, ff etc.

My read of the data is that:
- limited edition models appreciate
- current generation 4-seaters depreciate like a stone ($200k in 2-years). As an example, Continental has had an ff for sale for $230-240k for months. Assuming it was a trade-in and there's margin plus a negotiated discount to be expected, the trade- in likely started with a "1", or close to.
- 2-seater v12s will hold their value better until the successor car is available. After this they will depreciate as yesterday's toy and the prospect of a "large" servicing bill scares away a chunk of demand. A review of 599 prices today will confirm this.

So, to answer the OP, in the US, my beliefs:
- FFs are already depreciating rapidly. Will not be helped by facelifted model appearing.
- TdF will not impact F12 pricing in a meaningful way. This will occur in say 3 years when the replacement model is available.

Of course, "this and 25 cents will buy you a cup of coffee" as the saying goes.
Philip

 

You feel the new f12 is 3 years away from being available? I've heard to expect sooner.