is the bubble due to burst?

This is also the reason why sometimes -if not all the times- it better to get a honest unrestored unrepainted one , where you can spot rust, than one looking shiny but full of filler.
Incidentally I kept my 30CSI for 17 years ,,and enjoyed every minutes of ownership and driving. One among the 38 classic cars I have owned to date!

 

The best ones (true originals or properly restored ones) can quite easily be identified by a good specialist. I can now spot a bad E9 from a good one with a few pictures from designated areas - however pictures sometimes tell half a story and then you need to see it in person.

 

Hagerty has crunched some numbers (graphs) on the recent Arizona and Paris auctions.
Results confirm discussions in this thread.

https://news.classiccars.com/hagerty-charts-differences-arizona-paris-auction-sales/?utm_source=ClassicCars.com+Newsletter&utm_campaign=b4ce8eb1c8-02172016_2_17_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_59461abf0d-b4ce8eb1c8-162729925

 

well then...that's it...bubble has burst. damn

 

Sold for $70 million in Nov 2015
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I wonder if Super_dave plans to go the Cy Twobly fan site and introduce himself with commentary on how his art is overvalued?

I wonder how that would go?

Of course I think it's overvalued, my grandma thinks it's overvalued (and she's dead) and I'm sure everybody here thinks it's overvalued....but the difference is we don't spend all our time on the Cy Twobly site telling everybody there that. I wish Super_dave could understand the distinction.
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Wow! Twombly's work is a great find. If you examine his "Synopsis of a Battle," it appears (to me) to be a mathematical flow-diagram illustrating the dynamics constituting bubbles. Now if someone will only explain it to us.

 

I like this guy's work. I can also understand it.
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I also understand why people pay a premium for real 100 points cars. Poor guy may never finish the work, call it key man risk,,,

 

This tread can be debated from both sides of the fence , but evidence, and Im not talking the sub standard cars going to the auction houses in Arizona. this week Talacrest has posted that: Ferrari 250 SWB Speciale by Bertone finds a new home 19/02/2016 this car is a grade A example, its value is around 15 Million GBP if not more, also this week Graypaul Classics sold a 5K enzo for 1.8 GBP, Hr Owen Ferrari have sold a 33k 288 GTO for 2.2 GBP, the list is goes on. Tom Hartley have had a record month as posted on their site:Reflecting on January @tomhartleycars & yes I can confirm a "RECORD" month by our team ?tho well deserved by all��#&yeswhatafirm��
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Platini289 these are just a couple of the transactions that are happening at moment in the UK market and to me as a buyer and seller and collector of car's does not show a slowing market in the best cars.

 

msn is correct. If someone bought in 2012 purely to make a profit - which in itself is far from illegal - they need to head for the exit now if their car is anything other than very special. And it doesn't take a degree in rocket science to define "very special". The ride since 2012 has been epic based - as we know - vast amounts of money injected into the global feeding trough at ridiculously low interest rates.

So, as The Great Winding Down happens, pain will be felt (don't discount the political effect of billions on the planet who have only felt increasing inequality since 2008).

What I find intriguing, and to msn's point, is this rapidly growing uncertainty, talk of negative interrest rates and deep political angst might suggest certain cars become even stronger as assets to hold?

The last few silly years has sucked in many speculators to "classic cars" in search of a fast buck - and bragging rights. It is what it is - Tulips again. But in doing so the prestige classic sector has also been cemented as a real asset class. So perhaps what we're seeing is an evolution of the prestige/classic car market and a shift to the search for perfection? Ironic if a bursting (or deflating) car bubble only serves to encourage a flight to quality.

 

Camlet1 I think you make a very interesting point, I remember looking at a small collection of ferraris in 2008 when the world was ending, a f40, and Enzo, a 288 and Daytona.
The owner was selling his collection, The dealer was called Hampshire classics, http://www.hampshireclassicsltd.co.uk/vehicle_type/sold/page/3/ still there today and the cars are still shown on his website as sold. The owner was selling them to buy property and cash because he was worried about quantitive easing or for a better explanation money printing, in hindsight a wrong decision. The next 5 years at least in europe we are going to have significant money printing and more negative interest rates.
The evidence so far is that grade A classic cars are strong, I know where I would be, more money printing leads to only one outcome inflation.. Whether people want to accept it or not this is the outcome, you cannot keep printing expecting everything to have the same value .
In 5 years the world will double its number or billionaires and money will be worth a lot less.
I am just closing on a grade A F40 because I believe they are so undervalued.
Again this is my personal view as a collector.

 

I saw Lussos go for 2.5m a year and a half ago and then there were three no sales at Pebble Beach. Prior to that Lussos increased 6 fold in approximately in 4 years. The last Lusso I found sold was in the FML at 1.9m. The writer said something like the Lusso market has stabilized. Nice way to put it that Lussos have dropped 25%. I don't believe that Ferraris have or will ever reach Picasso status. I understand that you were probably just illustrating rather considering this to be the new norm.

All markets correct. The car market is one of the fickle ones. The one thing about the car market is that it is not liquid as with other investments. So buyer beware.

I still own collectible cars but Ferraris like the GTE will be the first to go when this bubble comes apart. And when the GTE drops so will the rest of the more plentiful Ferraris including the so called class A 350 produced Lussos. I believe the Lusso will be a good barometer of what is to come.

I don't care how many billionaires there are now and will be in the market. They have the same emotions that millionaires and 1/2 millionaires have.

You put your money where it is the most safe. In my oplinon Ferraris are not the new world economy.

I believe this is a tricky time to be investion. A F40 I believe would be a good exception. But if you have a high production number Ferrari even if it is pleasing to the eye these cars will be the first to come down. If it can happen to the beautiful Daytona in the last drop it will happen again.

I wouldn't take the tack that Ferraris are immune to global pressures and there are enough billionaires to keep us afloat.

I have essentially pulled out of the market. Did I mess up? We' ll see. We are all just speculating.

 

Pauls, I not speculating I'm buying the cars that made my 80/90's I'm fortunate enough to own a varied collection now and will be continuing to buy as a when. In ten years f40's will be 2 million gbp, i do not know what lusso you are looking at but a good friend of mine has 2 weeks ago bought a beautiful lasso for 1.8 million gbp, so I do not know if you are wishing the market down or just an inexperienced speculator .

 

Interesting points. Paul I don't understand how you can think Lussos were over valued (350 or 351 made depending on whom you ask) but F40 is not (1,311 made or maybe a few more depending whom you ask). I think both cars are fairly valued and with similar prospects for future appreciation: Lusso is rarer and last of the 250 series and is achingly beautiful. F40 is Enzo's last and the first (and maybe best- arguable I know) realization of a Ferrari supercar. You could do a lot worse than these two- that is for sure!

I agree its a fickle market and we're not talking about shares of Amazon here. I think when we are looking at these cars, although we look to precedence for guidance, each sale is in many ways unique on to itself so the market is less efficient.

All I can add here is my overall sense is that of a market stabilizing, maturing, finding its way. Thats a good thing for those who don't want to see a large correction or crash. I think if you buy any of these cars these days and cannot absorb a 10 to even 25% shift in value in the next 5 years or so, then don't do it.

 

I have been collecting cars for over 40 years I find that FML is a good resource for following cars. I follow the auctions around the world . I am glad that your friend bought his Lusso at 1.8. But you cannot gage the market on one sale.

I am not hoping for a down market. I regret selling my early 250 Ferrari.

There are several experienced sources that Lussos have met a decline. I still believe it will be one of the benchmarks going for forward.

I don't wish a down market . I would rather drive my Ferraris and let the market remain stable at the least.

 

In 1987 the F40 cost around £163,000. Accounting for inflation, that’s equivalent to around £430,000 in today’s money, which means that the F40 has increased in value by a mere 80-odd per cent in its 20-something-year life. Let's not forget about running costs along the way. This makes the F40 a not quite so hot an investment when you consider the LaFerrari appreciation in the last year alone!

Let's face the facts - the only people making money here are the dealers and auction houses, unless you happen to have been extremely lucky and bought in 2008.

Check out those fees to buy and sell chaps! The sales and marketing circus - in it's various forms - doesn't come cheap!

 

I was too quick to put Lussos and F 40's together. Apologizes. You are correct to point out the beauty and end of the road of the 250 Ferraris. But if we take the 1.8 million dollar sale of the Lusso just mentioned a 25% correction you be $450k. Maybe this is just me but taking that kind of loss doesn't make sense in any market.

Do I think the market could take a 25% correction. I believe it can and will. I won't get into all the financial reasons as that has more than been covered in this thread.

 

You're only taking a loss if you sell in a down market. And if you bought for the love of the car, you're not selling and it makes no difference to you if your car's value goes up or down. If you bought only for money, then heaven help you.

 

Paul- note MSN said his friend paid 1.8GBP = 2.56 USD. I was at Pebble and saw ⅔ Lussos but I didn't look too closely. Cursory inspection was they looked nice but I had some questions. However, I didn't stop to learn more. Sometimes when prices move fast it brings out some questionable cars looking to cash in. I'm not saying this happened here but perhaps that is what we are seeing with Lusso and therefore possibly the pullback is not really representative of a truly top level Lusso. Or maybe it is?

I agree with Ryan on his points. My point is just that if you buy one of these cars not that you should expect a big move but if you are not comfortable with a move to the downside of 25% (or maybe more?!) then its probably not the right choice because these markets will move around. I hear you of not wanting to lose $450k! No one does. But cars are fairly illiquid vs traditional places to put money and given fickle markets etc if you quickly need to turn the car back into cash you could find the market has moved against you. Its just part of how this works. I think longer term Lussos and F40s and many other special cars will be just fine. Short term I think we will find things to make our arguments seem true whether those are bullish or bearish.

 

I buy cars for sheer enjoyment and sell cars to make a profit to buy even better cars. I buy cars sell cars restore cars and have a website on cars and write about cars. It is more than making a profit.

 

I can say one of the Lussos was a multiplainum award car in the past 5 years and was a no sale at PB at Russo and Stelle in 2015. It had a fresh engine and transmission. Close to perfect with tools, etc.

 

With all due respect, a know of 2 lusso's in the last 6 weeks which have sold between 1.6 and 1.875 gbp, I can only comment on known cars sold, and one was to a good friend of mine. The only reason the car you comment on did not sell is because something is not right or it is priced incorrectly.

 

Forgetting all the car things I do to keep me happy in the car world there is no shame in taking a profit. Also there is no shame in buying back in at the low side of the market. I can't apologize if I conciider this a car market. Many do as does the Sports Car Market Magazine.

 

Very nice Paul! I agree nothing wrong in taking a profit. I have to say I saw one that was a kind of medium blue color and it looked very nice. I've just learned to not make fast judgements and I didn't really stick around too long. I'm not much of an auction goer but I happened to be there so I figured why not check it out. I loved seeing all the cars.

I also think a car could not sell just because the timing was not right. I think the financial markets all took a move downward about 10 days after the PB auctions. The general sense I felt from the people there was a slightly hesitancy/ nervousness. Thats just how it felt to me.