is the bubble due to burst?

That's impressive. I really have nothing to add. I knew the Lusso at R/S as well as anyone can at it was a phenomenal car. The prices for the Lussos at auction this year in the states are very south of 2m.
Just curious were these Lussos private sales. Seems like a lot of Lussos out in the market. Hmmm.

 

I can't stand auctions.😁 But the results provide useful information. I totally agree about who is in the crowd and offsite callers in the field. Ive seen cars that should sell not , and great deals on cars that should have been priced higher. Also I agree about the climate at PB last year.

 

I can comment of the same Lusso sold for 2.5m in 2015. The owner sold it for a $500 loss. Then it went to auction for a no sale. I guess I am saying that as you cannot pick one stock to size up the stock market it not relavent for you (and me) to pick individual cars to size up the car market.

All I can say is on the broader market I feel we are in for a hit. I have predicted this market accurately since 1997. In one fluctuation the best I could do was break even. If it weren't for speculating on cars I would never enjoy Ferraris today.

 

There's 57 Trillion US dollars of debt that's been added to an already excessive global debt load since 2008. The central banks have no intention of turning off the gusher. At some point there will be an almighty crunch, and a probable collapse of our currency system. Meaning hyperinflation, billions of people in the street protesting and everyone with cash wanting to be in tangible assets. Meaning LE Ferraris for sure

So don't worry about a bubble bursting. Buy an F50, run her to 8500 rpm, listen to her screaming glorious V12 and stick two fingers up to the impending crises.

 

So if you buy and sell cars for the sheer enjoyment of it then you don't love the cars. You love money, you love transactions, you love deals; but you don't love cars. Let's try not to confuse that. It's no wonder that values are so important to you.

 

You really missed the boat on this one.

 

Pauls here is one of the Lusso's that sold for that number in the last few weeks, the other I am not at liberty to post as it was a very private transaction.

Ferrari 250 GT Lusso LHD - JD Classics

 

Does anyone see the irony in a "is the bubble due to burst" thread running for over three years ?

Shall we change the thread name to "Ferrari values show no signs of abating"

 

You predicted the market correctly for the last 20 years. You should have 10s of millions of dollars from such knowledge. In your profile, you don't even list a single car you own, have owned or thought of buying.

Heck just a few lussos and 330GTCs would have paid huge returns. Saying the market will go down at this point is like saying Jeb Bush won't be our next President. Not really going out on a limb with that one. But try and be more specific 20%, 40%. Where are you?

 

There is no correlation between stocks, oil and classics cars, the FTSE in 2000 was 7000, 16 years later it is 6000. Hard assets are the only way to stay ahead of the inflation game, house prices in the SE of England have trebled in that time.. The car market has just played catch up as people realised the pricing was incorrect.

FTSE All Share and FTSE-100 since 1985

 

If interest rates go negative in most of the developed world, I know I would rather own outstanding, limited edition cars than cash. When I think of cars to own, cars just like a lusso (being probably THE most elegant and chic car ever made) would be absolutely top of my list. I don't know if the market is going up or down tomorrow or 6 months from now, but the demographic is that more rich people are chasing limited numbers of premium hard assets, whether its collectibles or trophy real estate etc. If you buy the best cars today (just like lussos etc) I think 10 years from now, from an investment perspective you will be very happy and I think you will be happy from an ownership perspective too as these cars are fantastic to own and enjoy.

PS this month's Robb Report Magazine has a fantastic picture of the Steve McQueen lusso on the cover

 

That car is nothing short of stunning -- looks amazing in that color (and lighting)

 

agree. unbelievable.

 

That article does as it says, charts the differences between arizona and paris auctions.

It is not a sign of a bubble bursting. As this thread has pointed out over 100 plus pages there is much to be discussed.

If you take that article as a market indicator you must think that Twitter publishes novels.


A large and important thing MISSING from the article is... as much as I hate to say it... Ron Pratte. 2015 he sold roughly 40 million in cars (if I remember correctly) This pushed the revenue numbers up as most of his cars were over 100k and some into the millions. Also every year the auction houses grow the number of cars they sell. For example, Russo and Steele had an 80% no reserve day on sunday. Some people were slaughtered because they were talked into a no reserve auction on sunday when many people would have no sale'd. Which effects the published charts two fold. More transactions and transactions at a lower dollar price making people think that prices are going down according to that chart.

There are many factors in 2015 vs 2016 auctions. NONE of which were addressed in the article

This is particular part is from memory, but it also seemed like there were less 10 million dollar cars sold/on offer at the 2016 auction.



Too many people are quick to ring the bell one way or the other. Use your head and collect meaningful data not just BS from a spread sheet.

 

Finally a voice of reason.

 

Since the start of this thread 3+ years ago, the Ferrari market appears to have evolved quite a bit.

It seems as though, not long ago, the Ferrari market consisted “mostly” of blue-chip cars (e.g., some Enzo-era cars), bluest of the blue-chip cars, race-history cars, several celebrity-owned cars, a few special performance-inspired variants in the 80s and 90s, and then a few newer ones (e.g., the Enzo). Some were more collectible than others.

Now there seems to be quite a few more “sub-markets”, even within one model of vehicle. As “msn” points out, there is a relatively big difference between the values of a collectible Ferrari depending upon the “quality” of that particular one (which, in many cases, seems to be mileage-related). I know that this likely always existed, but it seems like the disparity in value or collectability is much bigger now than previously. (Perhaps the disparity is the same, and I only perceive it to be different because of higher values.)

Heck, there appears to be multiple markets with the 250 GTO, with a garden-variety version (did I really just say that?!) worth $35MM and one with provenance worth $55+MM. I could have my “happily-ever-after” collection of Ferraris, with money left over, just from the difference in value for the same make of model here. There are now also collectible MT versions of newer cars, the rise of collectability of the many 80s and 90s cars, etc. which seem to be a relatively recent thing.

So, now when some asks me ‘whether I think the Ferrari market will continue to rise or will it drop in value’, my response is “Which of the markets?”

 

Very strong Market for the 80's Ferrari cars in the uk this year so far, confirmed as sold yesterday
https://twitter.com/graypaulclassic?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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2007/07 Ferrari Enzo for sale | Rosso Corsa
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This is the vintage section.
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An Enzo for me is Vintage we are not debating Antiques

 

Exactly my approach. You can either buy well, use and sell on to buy more, or you can keep everything and not be 'a speculator'. The second way would mean that I would have latent profits locked up in cars that I've had enough fun with, and I would be more limited in what I could buy next. In addition, you would eventually end up with too many cars to drive - does that somehow make someone an 'enthusiast'?

So, personally, I will go on speculating, buying, selling and owning enough cars so that I can drive the ones I own at any given time, as much as I want, without financial concerns having an impact.

I wouldn't buy anything right now, as I think the bubble is bursting, and if I wait I'll be able to pick up cars that I want, that are clearly falling in price at the moment. Then I'll drive them.

Of course, if you are making so much money elsewhere that the price and running costs of any multi-million $/£/€ car you are buying is irrelevant, and of no concern then keep going. How many of those people exist right now, with all the uncertainty around? Not too many, and not enough to sustain the market, IMO.

 

No one is saying to never sell anything. But if you truly love something, you won't sell it regardless of how much profit you stand to gain. For example, my F40 has gone up tremendously since I bought it. It can go up 10x more and I won't sell it because I love it. If I had all the money on the world and I could buy one thing, it would be my F40 so why would I sell it? In fact, it would pain me to sell any of the Ferraris that I currently own because I love each of them and they've all gone up ridiculously since I bought them. But I love the cars and don't love the profit.

However, in the last 18 months, I sold my prototype Countach, 1973 Porsche Carrera RS (for a world record), Daytona, and BMW M1, all of which I had owned long term. Of course I made money and there's nothing wrong with that. I liked those cars a lot but I didn't love any of them and I would take you all for fools if I stood up and said that I loved the cars and I sold them. You can't love everything. If you're selling a car electively, you love the money and not the car. You either love the car or you love the money; you can't love both and your behavior (either way) proves which.

I wish other people on here had that same level of respect for the intelligence of the membership here. People here are not fools. When you take us for idiots, it becomes obvious who the real idiot is.

 

I'm guessing that youre saying I'm taking you for fools and am therefore an idiot...given you've quoted my post. If not, then I aologies for misinterpreting. An idiot is not a word I would use as I think it says more about the speaker.

People are so touchy on this thread, and it seems to be heretical to suggest making money from cars 'that you love'. I buy cars I love, and in some cases I sell them to buy cars I love more, but I couldn't previously afford. So shoot me.

 

Actually, I didn't mean to single you out and I apologize for that. I quoted your post because you were touching on the point of selling cars vs keeping an ever growing collection and I spoke on that.

Regarding the other part of my post, I was referring to earlier posters who said that they love cars and they sell them for profit because they love cars so much. My point is that you have to be an idiot to believe that. You have to love either the car or the sales transaction. You cannot love both and the principles of economics (rational decision making) points to which it is the person prefers. It's the proverbial "having your cake and eating it, too."

I just don't like people's taking me and others for fools by insisting that they love the cars so much that they sell them for profit.

 

Perhaps I'm missing the point, apologies if I am, but what about when you're invited to buy a LE but your stable is of a size where it's becoming difficult to manage? This might be a "problem" for only a small percentage of buyers but the selling a much loved car to make way for a "no brainer" model is complicated and involves both loving a car and deciding at what price you can/should let it go.