is the bubble due to burst?

Absolutely this. And there are segments within segments as buyers now search for the pick of the litter. Nothing unusual in this behaviour, it happens every time when confidence takes a holiday.

 

That level of intensity would be like selling your own children. The flip side of the argument is that maybe one doesn't love the car as much as they think. Summed up best by the old Stephen Stills song lyrics, "if you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with."

 

That's why I used the word "electively." If you sell something because you need the money (or room, as that is a scarce resource as well), then it's not an elective choice. Your hand has effectively been forced.

 

Well put, one either loves their car(s) or loves the monetary value one can get for it greater.

Of course, one can 'love' (maybe 'like' would be a more appropriate preposition here) a car that one sells, but I believe Sherpa's point (the way I saw it) was given no other constraints (space, monetary, social, etc) when one sells a car - they are loving the $$ more than the car, so the 'love' statement is not entirely true.

If this wasn't the case, the oft-repeated phrase "I wouldn't sell my X at any price" wouldn't have any meaning. We've all heard stories of people (needing the money or not) not sell property (especially houses) until their death. I think that perfectly illustrates Sherpa's point.

 

I can see a car you like appreciating to such an extreme point that you dont love it enough to keep it and its experience is replaceable by somehting else.. Case in point my e-46 M3. had it since new still low mileage new car ish. For the 30k its worth I dont see selling, or what coudl replace it for under 80k in term sof experience.. But I cant say I have really ever loved it, so if these cars hit a theoretical 100K or something ridiculous then yes there is something else I would buy that I might enjoy more with the money.

Same thing with the BBI, if they hit 1 mill, well there are 3 or 4 cars I could see buying with the 1 mill that might give more enjoyment overall. Especialy a 1 mill car by defintion has limited use, and that use is more gentle.


In my personal case I think the cars I own with one or two exceptions are the types othrs are going to want to really own sooner or later. So even economicaly from an appreciation perspective I dont see to sell anything now, but there can be a point where appreciation seems mostly done and replacing 1 car with 4 may provide more entertainment and even long term appreciation. Hard to say, never had a car go so high, and so far enjoy accumulating the ones I have.

A bigger question for me is what would I replace one with that would do the same thing for me or better. So it seems better to keep adding to the wealth of drivign experience by adding cars slowly and thoughtfully, rather than losing a particular excperience from one I already have.

Of new cars the ones that could motivate me to sell soemthing are the new Ford Gt.
I could see spending fresh money and maybe adding a speciale the new 911R. Otherwise I am just not really inspired. I think my next purchase is a lotus exige when they do the 410hp one or a viper ACR, but then I think fast cars are for the track.

Of older cars I would love to try a Daytona and then my tastes are mostly pre war bugattis.

Sometimes what you have is pretty satisfying, and you realise much of what you think you want is not really going to add much.

 

Best post in this whole thread.
Interesting as well that the F40 is "The one" for you.

 

ut o....looks like smart investors already sold at the top, always the case when you get these in the mail. Top's over according to this and the other reading for most cars except the best I suppose? It's always makes you feel brilliant, so smart when you sell at the top, like you have special powers, be it any investment. Hell, I can't even get this mac to print this right side up, I swear it's right side up when I load the picture, but it shows up sideways-mahamid be damn. My biggest problems is what to ship to Amelia this week to drive. My sigo's F40, 11km Boxer, or Daytona, or the loud somewhat obnoxious 348 Challenge. Tops over for now, I guess everyone know that. That Sherpa, he be smart.
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Or just lucky.

 

Or smart enough to be lucky.

 

Whatever anyone thinks is happening to the ferrari market, its not collapsing or bursting. Even if prices rolled back 20% that would still amount to a big appreciation over 3 years ago, and a tapering is a rationalisation of the market.

As others here have said of the ferrari market, which one? Price appreciation and demmand for an F40 is very different to a testarossa.

More than anything, I think we are seeing a reality delta between fantasy asking prices and real sales transactions. That tells us the rise has mostly stopped for now.

Some cars Gt4's and Boxers may have life left in them, and have risen really far, from used older ferraris to collectables. Others will follow, maybe just not this cycle.

From all the heat and price rise I also think a number of shiney but otherwise ropey cars sold for numbers that objectively did not make sense, and were crazy compared to comparables. these cars most likely sold to investors/speculators/non-enthusiast collectors, and these people will have been burned if they try to sell in todays more rational market to an educated buyer.

 

I believe "educated buyer" is the operative word here which includes most FChat members.

 

I agree in fact a little tapering helps solidify the market . I mean considering the recent gains it is very healthy to have an easing the stock market has had a similar easing recently

 

Dammit, I missed the top. Oh hell, will just have to drive my cars then for another 10 years.........where's the keys to my F50, F40, 599 GTO.......?

 

Or until you can't drive any more. After all, isn't that still the primary reason that most of us bought these cars, anyway? I know that's why I have mine and I am pretty sure it's the same for you.

 

Total agreement.

At 6 I was bought a little red toy car for my birthday. Hadn't a clue what it was but I knew it was very special (it was a 250 LM). At 14 I was making Tamiya F1 Ferrari model cars and spending countless happy hours doing the pipe-work on those glorious Ferrari V12s and Boxer 12s. At 17 I was drooling over a magnificent gleaming Black 308 GTS under the sodium lights outside a hotel while on holiday a thinking how on earth will I ever own such a beautiful stunning car. At 38 I bought my wonderful Argento 550 Maranello, my first Ferrari (which I still have and adore).

Now, the stable includes cars I could only dream about years ago, cars that make me pinch myself hard everyday.

I give a rats arse about bubbles or otherwise. And when my time is done, my beauties will be passed to people who I believe sincerely share the same passion. Even if I sell at a discount to the market

 

Don't tell that to people here who insist that insist that the only people who but these cars are speculators and investors, people "buying from a list," or buying cars just because of their badge. Their arguments would be blown out of the water.

Carry on and enjoy your cars and driving in good health.

 

With all due respect, I don't think anyone here has said that "the only people" buying the cars fall into those groups, and so I don't think it is an accurate or fair characterization.

It is that they (speculators) have become a more meaningful part of the market, and because prices are set by the buyers at the margin, this is very significant to understanding why prices move the way that they do.

This is being borne out today, as we see the market cresting and starting to turn down. Now, if speculators and investors (which are somewhat different groups but I'll group them together for simplicity) were no, or are not, major buyers, prices should not come down much, if at all. If most people bought cars completely indifferent to price movements, then there is no reason for prices to drop --- what was coveted and recognized as important and attractive 6 months ago, should hold the same value to that group today. These are cars and have no cash flows associated with them, so their value is entirely based on what any person is willing to pay to own them (for a "non investor") or expectations of future cash flows from a sale (for an "investor / speculator").

If there was lots of buying due to speculation (thinking prices will rise higher tomorrow, and so buying today) then we will see sellers trying to exit as prices fall, and there should be more listings today than before the big rise in prices say 3 or 4 years ago.

I don't know of any formal tracking of that kind of information, so I can't say with certainty that this is occurring.

 

Dave, I don't recall your ever saying that but there are others on here who have said that very thing. I could find direct quotes but others on here are better at that than I am.

 

Fair enough.

I just think sometimes there is a tendency (by many) to exaggerate the positions held by others, even when the viewpoints may not be quite as opposing as they are made out to be.

I don't think quoting is necessary, I just didn't notice others speaking with such stark generalizations. Perhaps I just set the extremes aside subconsciously and assume hyperbole, and so it's a mental gap on my part.

 

When i was a kid i remember reading about some 81 year old German guy name Rudi who drove his Boxer vigorously on the autobhan. The guy had been a stuka pilot during ww2, and there was a photo of him smiling in his BBI.

So yeah I hope when i am in my 80's to be flogging my BB down the road at speed.
Call me in 30 years for a BB price update.
By the time I stop driving it, hopefully far into my 80's or 90's my son can take me for rdes in it, after all as soon as he could go in a child car seat he rode in it, moving through booster seats to turnign 16 and being taller than me.

 

Good points.

 

I'm lucky enough to have bought my Euro 308QV and 308 GT4 a few years ago at the end of the bottom of their market. I doubt I will be as lucky when I sell because I don't have any plans to sell. It's nice to know I'm in the money or outpacing the upkeep but I bought them to enjoy. I would however like to see the early 911/912 bubble burst.

 

Thanks Super_Dave for your comments. I'm going to attempt to illuminate the root of the consternation that seen on valuation threads. My desire is to hopefully provide insight at least from my honest opinion on the motivations behind the climate on these threads.

The way I see it is there are three camps:

1) Speculators & Investors (i.e. dealers, professional traders)
2) Owner / enthusiasts
3) A hybrid of 1 and 2, or an aspiring owner.

For the first group, it goes without saying their opinions are biased based on their personal positions. I liken this to a stock options trading forum. You'll have demagoguery on both sides (up and down)

For the second group, you'll have folks that pretty much love their cars, and the valuation has a minimal effect on their day to day enjoyment of said vehicles.

The last group is folks that have an interest in Ferrari but for any myriad of reasons want the valuation to go up or down or maybe even stay flat.

If there is one thing I've quickly learned about the marque, is the great passion group #2 have. I can attest to this. True, one cannot completely divorce oneself from the valuation of a personal asset, and viewpoints will not be unbiased. With my humble Mondial, I am not even in the same league as many here with multi-million dollar collections. That said, the one thing I share with other owners or enthusiasts is the desire for positive things for Ferrari in all realms, including price.

This common love consistently shared is logically extended to valuation. We all are intelligent people here and can readily identify pumping or trashing an asset for financial gain. (Group #1) However, we usually can digest said commentary with a grain of salt when the source of said commentator is transparent. Take Michael Sheehan's market letters, for example, they have had already achieved a "roll the eyes." reception by the broader community (up or down.)

Now we have group 3. The hybrid enthusiast that focus not only on the cars themselves but equally on the valuation, but on the downside. It often can rub people the wrong way because all things being equal; one would expect only positive market movement for your Ferrari brethren.

I hope you are familiar with craps as I think that's a great analogy to my point (pardon the pun.) No craps game goes on forever; somebody will "7" out sooner or later, and the 'crash' happens, everybody acknowledges this. But when you have a spot on the table, you don't care if the whale on the table betting golds and purple chips is making 10X your red chips, you and everybody else is just happy things are going well. The only people that are not satisfied are people at the same table with bets on the "don't pass line" which nobody ever gives a hard time because they have a 'stake' and are transparent about it. (See Micheal Sheehan/Group#1)

Now imagine a person walks by and starts talking very loudly, "he's going to 7 out soon, he's going to crap out soon, he's not going to get his point. You can expect yelling and comments of 'get the hell out of here" (I've seen it!) - and by the dealers no less!

That is why the question, "what Ferrari do you own" comes up often to naysayers. It is analogous to what is your spot on the table? If one has no play in the game, it is bad form to comment negatively on the 'hot roller."

By no means am I saying one should not talk honestly and openly about the market, but when one does so from a position outside looking in, it is very akin to my analogy above. What mathematically the chances the said roller will continue to hit their points is irrelevant; everybody at the table already knows it's low - they just don't want to be constantly reminded that.

 

Food for thought...
I just counted up 18 cars with $28mm of estimates that Jerry Seinfeld is selling at the Amelia Island Gooding auction next week.

 

Excellent post !

Thank you for saying perfectly what I and others think.