Yawn Sorry to hear of your circumstance and understand that aspect of your perspective. If I were in such a situation, I would probably be a lot more liberal with my finances/future finances Agree [/QUOTE]
Okay, Dave. There are 9 Daytonas on the market for varying prices. You want a Daytona. You go and look at all of them and inspect them each personally. Where do you start? What's right about the car and what isn't? How big of a deal is what's wrong with the car? To make things more complicated, there are 3 for sale at one auction weekend. On top of all of those factors, you have to decide how to bid and how much to bid and one which ones. After you have done all of these mental gymnastics, you rule out 7 as being subpar because you saw them in person and you inspected them. The asking prices are way way too optimistic based on the condition of the cars and you know they're not worth close to that because of how much it would cost to make them great. You have seen a total 30 Daytonas in person in your search and have the experience to know what's good and what isn't. You like two and they are both exceptional. One gets bid way higher than you can afford but you manage to buy a great one at a fair market correct price. At the end of the day, everyone in the bubble thread on fchat says the market is crashing because 7 of the 9 Daytonas on the market sold for way under asking but speculation by fools is still strong because one at auction sold for way more than those other 7. The owner must be a fool because doesn't he know that Daytonas are tanking? Tell me again how someone who "follows" the market is as knowledgable as someone who's actively building a collection and is out there constantly looking at and personally inspecting cars to buy.
I will point to the housing analogy again. Someone actively looking at a particular regional market can give heaps of advice on relative value within that specific market. Unless they actually understand the underlying drivers of that market, however, they won't have a clue on whether the market as a whole is over or under priced. Why? Because they would need to understand the drivers -- interest rates over time, wage growth in the area and commutable areas, population growth trends, school funding trends etc. I would not go to a realtor to get their views on the big picture direction of a housing market. I would get their views on the local preferences, best areas, new stores opening in town, etc. First thing I would personally do if shopping for a Daytona is look to the message boards here and see what other owners would advise I look out for (and maybe ask someone with one to help walk me through). But that is very different from looking at (let's say) the 911 air cooled market and saying that unless you own a 911, you can't assess the market overall. Two different beasts.
Just to add, I (personally would not) think anyone is a fool solely for paying xx for a particular car. It is all context dependent and it may very well be foolish to pay xx (for one person) and not for another... If Bill Gates wanted to pay $50mm for a particular F40, just because, it may not be foolish at all. It may be ... wasteful... or unnecessary. But for him it may not be foolish since he has the resources to be as wasteful as he wants, and the value of his idiosyncratic preference may be worth more to him personally, than $50mm, which he may never notice missing. What may be foolish is paying $xx for something with the expectation or belief it is a wise investment today, if someone is basing that assessment on the historical trend of increased prices recently, and the expectation of that trend continuing. I am well aware of the price differences between individual cars and the need to diligence to price fairly -- and that you cannot point to a handful of examples as indicative of anything. But you can look at the big picture trends and discussions and start to make meaningful conclusions, within having all the specific details in hand.
I appreciate the prompt response Super_Dave. Let me say this is fantastic, and exactly the sort of discourse I am seeking. I commend you, sir! You mention you were in the market for the 360/F430. I do not question your personal experience, but from my observations, these cars have not appreciated like other vehicles; (say the 308 GT4) and are the perfect candidates for entry points for an enthusiast interested in getting in the Ferrari world. I didn't see these cars very much affected by the action on the top. Looking at price trends from Hagerty I believe confirms this. I agree with you the 360 CSs and manuals have had a price premium, I think this has to do more with the decision not to offer it in current models and simple supply demand. Only a minority of F430s had the manual. Limited editions car will always command a premium of course. It is this observation from my point of view that causes me confusion on dissenting posts on price appreciation. Since many of the cars are still attainable and have only been negligibly affected by record auction price sales, doesn't this make the contrary viewpoints of high prices a moot point? (from an enthusiasts' lament) The cars you mention are far less sensitive to the price action at the top. Cars like the 612 and 430 are still depreciating. Also, there cannot be enough said that there are 'deals' out there! Again, my experience driving with owners of said classics have been opposite. First let me say, this has just been my observations in the Ferrari Owners Group (FOG) of Northern California. If there is one thing said over and over again is you need to drive these cars to maintain them. Having them sit can be as counterproductive as not doing scheduled maintenance. Below are 2 pictures of cars about to go on the track last year at the Ferrari Challenge event. I'm sure I'll see them again next month. These guys I'm sure do not feel negatively about the price appreciation nor feel that they can't drive their cars either. Most of my friends are owners of 458s and 430s, yet they all drive them every week because we are of like mind - they are to be driven, not sat on. We have owners of Daytona, Dinos, 330s, even LaFs in our club. Not one of them has had a negative view of high auction prices. Nor have I seen them ration their use due to valuation. On the contrary, they have been positive. I think collectors and speculators would share that sentiment from a pure profit motive (price appreciation.) As for your assessment of investors and speculators, this is the very reason I do not spend time being critical of their decisions, price action rarely has an affect on them, and if hurt by risky endeavors, it has no affect on me.' That is exactly why I refrain from negative commentary; it has no effect on me. At best I alienate a cohort, at worst I am seen as a troll. I am grateful for your constructive response. I encourage you to continue to express your honest views. Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login
[/QUOTE] It's not my finances that I'm liberal with. I'm actually very conservative with my finances. As others here like to tell me, my having no outstanding debt or borrowing money to pay for things is waste of these historically low interest rates. But everything I have I own, and no one else has title to it, and that helps me sleep at night. That's important to me. However, I am liberal about other things. All of my issues have helped me have better perspective and understand that life is about doing things, not talking about doing things. When my time comes, I'm not going to look back and say that I wish I did more instead of just talking about it from the sidelines. I've had great life experiences and will continue to do that as long as is physically possible. I drive my cars: great road trips, great rallies, great car friends from around the world, etc. No one is going to tell me that I would have been better off selling my cars at the top or not buying them in the first place because we were years from a bubble. I bought them to use them and it has and continues to be a wonderful ride. Again, just my opinion.
Sherpa, you are a class act and are very graceful. In the end, these are not items that will save the world or unlock the mysterious of the universe. They are toys, albeit expensive ones. I think if one has the desire and the means, within reason go for it! None of us know what tomorrow will bring. I wish you nothing but the best in health and fortune my friend.
It's not my finances that I'm liberal with. I'm actually very conservative with my finances. As others here like to tell me, my having no outstanding debt or borrowing money to pay for things is waste of these historically low interest rates. But everything I have I own, and no one else has title to it, and that helps me sleep at night. That's important to me. However, I am liberal about other things. All of my issues have helped me have better perspective and understand that life is about doing things, not talking about doing things. When my time comes, I'm not going to look back and say that I wish I did more instead of just talking about it from the sidelines. I've had great life experiences and will continue to do that as long as is physically possible. I drive my cars: great road trips, great rallies, great car friends from around the world, etc. No one is going to tell me that I would have been better off selling my cars at the top or not buying them in the first place because we were years from a bubble. I bought them to use them and it has and continues to be a wonderful ride. Again, just my opinion. [/QUOTE] Yep when the day comes, best not to look back and say I should have done this or that. Best to do it all, or as much as is possible within ones reasonable means. Nice things about cars, choose the right ones, or shouldl I say good ones, and when the day comes to shuffle of this mortal coil others will be comending your foresight in having invested so well. Cars are one of the few things where the enjoyment also can have a long tern $ return, if you hold and enjoy. Of course the worst possible $ to spend in terms of the "should have" is a trip to space. But its also probably the most rewarding and a pinnacle experience goal for some if you have the $$ to spend. Point being economic return is nice to have, but for some of us almost irrelevant in terms of the bigger goal. I always found my motivations to do well came from the desire to experience many aspects of life and what it has to offer.. In that sense the cars have provided the greatest economic return of all, even though I have yet to sell one. Simply the desire to own certain cars, to experience them while I can, has been a large carrot/driver for where I am today. I guess some people spend all their time planning for old age, and forget to live. i'll also add that having an understanding spouse is always a good thing, but most important marry a nice person, that will add years, and nice as cars are, they are not a patch on for raising/having great kids. Of course the paraphrase the Donald, we are winners and winners try have it all. in my case if I never make it into space, that will be ok because there is so much else that has been experienced and done, still a goal though.
Well said, exercise prudence and avoid reckless excess. There are many opportunities to enjoy much of the wonders of Marenello without breaking the bank, even in today's climate. Be well all of you!
From my experience, many here *are* more mature, and have owned these cars for some time..hence your point is a good one. So good in fact that I reiterate it, for folks that have owned these cars for a relatively long time, their opinions will have much higher weight then those that just recently purchased a Ferrari or even more so for those don't own vintage Ferrari. Completely agree!
I just cant understand how there isn't a Ferrari you sd or you bw are willing to own right now. I cant understand how a Ferrari enthusiast wld struggle to find/buy a Ferrari in this day and age. So I find it hard to understand why you spend time on fchat and why you care and why you think anyone here wld care about your thoughts. why not buy a Ferrari? are you Ferrari enthusiasts?
Meanwhile as it looks like the market is cooling a bit, what cars are on your lists to buy and at what prices. To me 328s seem priced less than 308Qvs and ealrier carbed cars, if they fall its agreat buy, unless there is reasonably priced euro 308Qv. 50-70k 308Gt4s especialy euro seem great, and with the price spike there are probably a few about that have had all the work done on them. 50-70K. 355 spiders, or Gts, a soreted one, 60-80K. Trs, looking for a dead one sans motor to put my NOS 512m engine into. AND if 458s get near, or should I say when they get near 430 money to me its the buy of buys. Ferrari seems unlikely to be building such a stunning and cohesive shape again. On styling alone this is one of the all time classic ferraris, it took them what 40 years since the 308/boxer to design a really classic shape again(arguably the 456 works too)And while its not the full feedbacky classic driving experience, more Gt, its still a great great drive in context and in its own way somethign special. Yes a 488 may be a lot faster, but its lost the classic look, and realisticaly a 458 is way faster than anyone can really go on the street, and more than fast enough for ocasional track forays. the only question then, is what are the long term maintanance prospects, or will this have to be a scrapped used car 25 years from now, because all the bits needed to make it run are impossible to source. Still if any ferrari produced since the 80's belongs in an art museum this is the one, the first really stunning modern, pretty much from any manufacturer, well maybe and aventador also but in a very different way.. Meanwhile looks like our winter may have shot its last bolt. So hopefully we get a week or two of rain to clear the salt and then its boxers aweigh.
I've promised BW not to ask what Ferrari he has his eye on, so I shall keep that promise. SD, do you still desire to obtain a 360/430 say in the future? If so, what would you say is a fair price for either one that is in good condition, say a 'driver' 35-40K miles up to date in service? The reason I ask is I'm interested to see how wide the valuation disconnect is from your POV. Again, I hope you find this a fair and respectful query.
Driver at 40K. You can get plenty of either with half that mileage and they should be perfect. No one wants a 40K Ferrari of that vintage, that signifies an unsalable car to many. ;-) I'm quite sure either of these gents is much more concerned for the potential depreciation, not appreciation. . . . for the car. Stop wasting your time with passion and coddling. Allow their misguided decisions to send them deeper and deeper into non-decisions. It the oldest adage: "over analysis leads to paralysis". I never heard 2 people speak more about not not doing something they love because it might not be the absolute bottom. I never once decided I should not buy the car I was lusting for because it was too expensive or at the top. The passion to own overweighed the rational not to. I always thought I'm nuts and my wife really hammered home that notion. But, ironically a couple did come in nearer the low end after a 10 year period. Hold the thing 10 years, drive it, enjoy it and if you come out ahead after all the upkeep, be happy. Ferrari never wanted to sell cars to ordinary people. He who hesitates is forever lost.
A cheap 360/430 could be the most expensive car you own after you factor in the costs of putting it right and maintanance on a newer electronic ferrari. But yes its a passion thing, there cannot be enough logic to buy a ferrari, especialy an older one, its all passion. Same with Fiat spiders, and old Alfas. Too bad I dotn feel the same way about new ferraris and that includes 360s on up, well unless you offered me a speciale. Now that market ardour is cooling lets see where pedestrian ferrari prices go.
Thank you dwhite. These are wise words. I admit I do enjoy engaging with contrarians. Sometimes they can be right. I love drama and theater too so there's that. You, me, and many others here....especially on forum devoted to that love! So 40K? I think that might be tough with a car that has say 40K miles you can easily find that for a car that has high milage for around 50K (45 maybe if you can wheel/deal with the seller) If you're willing to do salvage title (nothing wrong with this) - you can find 40K examples all day all night... Super_Dave what are your thoughts? I hope you do respond, as in the past, much of my assumption that you are trolling is when asked fair, respectful questions, you would disappear...so I concluded in the past (perhaps unfairly) you were a troll. Cheers
I don't think super-dave is a ferrari enthusiast. a nice ferrari costs less than a soccer mons suv these days. my point for over a year - he isn't a ferrari enthusiast (he wld have one if he was) but likes to post on fchat. odd.
Maybe Ferrari a enthusiast if you get one for free? Ttforcefed, I think BW likes Ferrari, but only at certain price points. Nothing wrong with this, I think I've gotten his position loud and clear. The financial component is just as important to him (maybe even more?) then the driving/ownership pleasure one recieves. BW views these cars more from a financial perspective. Just ironic given his negative viewpoints on speculators (classic projection perhaps?) I won't beat a dead horse here. Just trying to understand SDs position now.
Paul, as I stated in my original post earlier, most of the cars I was looking at were not and are not subject to rising prices. So I was not "priced out" from most of the cars I was interested in. I didn't buy a Ferrari when I was considering it because I chose something else. I may buy a Ferrari in the next 24 months or I may not.
Hi SD, my previous post was referring to Bradwilliams, I have no negative views on investors or speculators/dealers. So if price point is the most important facet to him, who am I to judge? I just called him out before because he denigrated those that only concerned themselves with prices. I just wanted to make that clear to BW why people were confused. One cannot be upset at those that obsesses over price and at the same time do it yourself, it makes confusing conversation. The question to you was simply if you still desired a Ferrari, which you've answered yes, thank you. You mentioned the 360 and 430, great models, again thank you. My remaining query is what do you feel is a fair price point (say the next economic downturn, which I agree will happen sooner or later) Be well
Paul, I think paddle shift F430s and 360s are priced just fine, actually. I keep an eye on autotrader and dealer listings in my area (and posts in Fchat classifieds) out of curiosity too in fact... Likely won't be in the next 12 months, but who knows if after that I can pull the trigger -- would be great!
