Who is buying at current levels?

Excellent simple explanation of the market process. "Pantheon of car desire" also a good analogy of potential demand.

 

From the 15 years I've watched exotic prices, it seems like there are 3 groups:

1. True and very rare collectibles (the ones most can't afford, even on this forum)- Seem to have upward sloping straight line appreciation, with a correction every decade or so, after which they resume their line

2. Good, semi-rare collectibles 15 years or older - Look to follow an increasing sine wave, more highs and lows but good cars to have

3. Truly WTF cars of the moment (like late model cars with MTs, or cars with high production that dealers want to convince you are in category 2) - Exponential rises, and will crash hard at the first sign of trouble

 

Here's what HAGI is saying.
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I am not familiar with this chart please explain

 

one thing that makes me laugh at some of the comments, asking prices are always high - even in 2009 and 2010. Asking prices being high is normal in all markets. The ask on my f40 in 2009 was 600k and I paid 425k. the ask on my 512tr was 119K and I paid $82. my anny asking price was 150k and I paid $100k. I can go on and on.

asking prices were not normal by any means in 2009 and 2010 so why wld you expect them to be normal now? if you find a car you like call the dealer/seller and make an offer, worst that happens is they say no and you have an extra real life data point on the market at that point in time.

 

The higher bond prices go the higher ultra collectibles go. The price of any dollar denominated asset is directly related to what a financial institution is willing to lend against it.

 

I didn't think "lending" figured into someone buying an F40, DB 5, 1st year Countach, etc. Am I wrong, or do people never finance such high-end cars?

 

For any dollar to exist it has to be lent into existence, so for a F40 to cost 1.2million for example someone borrowed it somewhere down the line, and yes there are tons of cars garaged up with huge loans against them for speculative purposes. The QE money went into existing assets very few of it went into financing productive investment. Ultra high end cars were just one of the markets bid to high levels.

Even when someone says they paid 'cash', it's irrelevant because the money was created through a loan earlier. If a bank is willing to lend $10million against an Enzo than the possible bid is $10million to buy it.

The higher the bond market goes the higher prices will go for all sorts of things rich people hoard that includes exotics.

 

As a sideline viewer, but hopefully soon a buyer, I love the 308/28/48 models but the prices of good models have gone crazy and over the price of 360s. I also have a soft spot for 355 but not sur do could jump in that pool. As much as I live the older models I don't feel I buy 1 unless I got a smokin deal since I feel the. Urgent prices are in a bubble.

 

70's, last Eldorado convertible.

 

This is the Historic Automobile Group. The chart can be read as follows:

1. The HAGI Top Index is our overall market measure for exceptional historic automobiles.
2. The HAGI P Index is measuring the rare Porsche automobile market.
3. The HAGI F Index is measuring the rare Ferrari automobile market.
4. The HAGI Top ex P&F Index represents the HAGI Top Index without Porsche and Ferrari.
5. The HAGI MBCI measures the market for classic Mercedes-Benz automobiles (from 2012).

 

THANKS for the explanation /clarification...

 

I'm holding on to what I have. When boxers are $75-100k I may buy another.

 

Hey Pete, when Boxers are in that range & you buy one, please let me know what your 2nd choice for that price was!