Predicting value of 430s and 458s

Most of these cars should keep on depreciating from years to come, since Ferrari made so many of them. This is a good thing, as it should keep the prospectors at bay.

These are all great Ferraris and meant to be driven.

There are some versions, though, that are considered collector status: 360 SC, F-430 Scuderia, F-430 manual, and 458 Speciale. These will probably rise in value mainly because they are rare.

 

If you look over in the Ferrari for sale post, you will see a 2007 F430 in Black for only $107,000. Just posted today. 22k miles. lowered on factory set up, that might hurt it, MK11 Headers, don't know if that helps or hurts, and non factory wheels, to me that would hurt it , but that is only for me. Others may like the wheels.

Buy a good 308 GT4....... Enjoy the fumes, and clutch , before they bust the $3 Million mark........ : )

 

Don't forget, a few months isn't a trend- every year there is seasonality in the spring and summer- best time to buy a sportscar / convertible is going into the fall/winter- asking and selling prices move up and down through the seasons...

 

Pretty well reasoned, except for this one. I don't think either early model 430s or 458s will drop more than $25k (458) or $15k (430) over the next 4 years.....and lets face it, if we are counting pennies like this (and I'm definately in that situation) we are looking at the bottom end of the scale.

I'm hoping to get an early 458 with 20k miles for $150k in early 2018.....will prices get there?

 

Philosophy of someone WAY more successful in life than I am....I admire that.

For the have-nots, the financial plan has to be the right one.....I'd rather NOT have a car than make a financial mistake.

 

+1- you have to go into a large purchase with eyes wide open. Maintenance and a recession can easily erase more than $15K from your wallet (F1 failure, header failure, clutch, etc) and/or "assets" sitting in the garage (depreciation), even with a 430. I know I won't easily forget 2008/09.. Again, I'm not saying not to do it, but one needs to be realistic about what they can comfortably afford in various potential scenarios that can play out...

 

Agreed. I see your point. I saved and waited for my first one for over 3 years. It's not easy to fork out 100K plus for a car.

I think I was referencing folks that feel the need to get a "deal" or they say no. I've witnessed lots of these pricing threads over the years.

 

I guess you are looking for not really the valuation of Ferraris but how to make even financially owning Ferraris. There are people doing this and making huge money out of it at this part of the world too, not just Ferraris but all kinds of exotics. They usually won't keep the car for long. Limited edition cars not meeting the market demand, buy low and sell high of production cars, observe the seasonal influences, next model debut time etc. I believe those people really knows the details won't share them publicly.

Not sure if it is the same logic for other places in the world, I think it should be, more or less.

 

I think it used to be easier to do just that.

I worked at a busy restaurant during undergrad and the owner had a dealer's license. He would buy cars, drive them a few months and sell for the same price he paid or a bit more. It was common to see cars with dealer tags in my hometown area in SC.

The state cracked down on that and now you have to have a physical office with a business license, separate phone line etc to use a dealer tag.

So it's possible to break even if you're willing to trade all the time, just more difficult to do with high end cars.

 

I personally feel we are entering new times where past results are not indicative of the future. The trend is going away for naturally aspirated cars. They may never come back. Many cars now have turbos or are electric or a hybrid.

It's hard to predict the market but I have a hard time believing a 458 with 570hp and the sound of the motor screaming to 9k rpm you get will get anywhere close to only 100k. Seriously, what kind of new car can you buy for 100k that will even come close to a 458.

The reliability of the 458 and F430 are good. Maintenance is not that bad either.

In addition, there are so many mid tier type cars like a regular 991 which will slaughter a 355 or 360. Even an M3 or M4 would slaughter a 360 or 355. This is why the cars are priced where they are IMHO.

The gap in horsepower is not necessarily that big between the F430 and 360 pertaining to sheer numbers. The true difference between 483 vs 400 hp is that there are so many cars that fall in between and offer more performance for the buck vs the 360.

So where will cars be in 5 years. We have already seen a slow down in horsepower wars in the mid tier cars. The M3 went from 240hp Us version to 333 to 414 to only 425 which is turbo charged now. Look at the prices for a new M3 or M4 also. A new 991 is way more than an F430 already I believe but yet the F430 performance is still better. How much power will these cars have in 5 years and what will they cost. The 991.2 is turbo charged also.

 

Buy the car you like and enjoy driving it. If it goes up in value, do a happy dance. If it (likely) goes down, who cares, you drive a Ferrari?

If you go into this with the intention to make a profit you'll likely get hurt. Furthermore, you probably won't use the car as much as you'd probably like because of fear of hurting the value.

 

I never buy a car with the intention of turning a profit. If I can reduce depreciation and running costs by an increase in value then I'm happy.

I value the driving experience above all else.

 

That's it. Buy what you like.

 

If you want to reduce possible depreciation and take advantage of possible appreciation, look at the special cars.... CS, Scuderia, Speciale.

You'll have fun and won't lose a cent.

 

I don't think profit, depreciation, and low running costs belong in the same sentence as Ferrari.

Buy what you like (providing of course you can stomach the drawbacks) - AND ENJOY IT.

If not - leave it alone because occasionally it bites financially - but don't all addictions?

 

360s bottom in the 60s

430s in the 80s

458s in the 105 range

Just my guess

 

I hope your guess is correct, as I one day want to own a 458. The $100k range is doable for me, but I certainly cannot do it with the current prices

 

F430 have really dropped off in price, as have Gen 1 CA.

Since the 458 will probably be the last NA V-8 engined Ferrari, it may not drop quite as fast; but, it still should go down plenty, since they may so may of them.

 

This may be a reasonable range. They all seem to drop about $10K per year after the initial drive off hit (of course with some Ferrari's that actually go up initially) until they reach a bottom number about 15 to 20 years out.

Look where we are now with the 308's, 328's and 550's. For a reasonable example, they are hitting prices at or above their new car price after having dropped to about 40% of their original values first. 355's are now on the rise and a good example is now around $90 - $100K having been as low as $45 -$50K just 2 -3 years ago.

360's will continue down to hover around the $50-$60K over the next few years with the gated ones going for somewhat more. 430's will follow that trend a few years later and by around 2020 you will be seeing them commonly around $60-$70K. If you want a sub-$100K 458, plan on that happening around 2022. Give them 5 more years and you will find them for $100K all day long.

 

430 6spd manual -- http://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/ferrari/f430/1839362.html

 

Prospectors have brain-washed people into thinking that MT cars are now worth insane more money - and people slurp it up; buying cars they originally had no interest in when they had the choice of F1 or MT (for less!). Now all of sudden they're desperate for them - yeah, right.

What is next? Maybe we can get Ferrari buyers to pay big premiums on cars that sold the quickest or had the most articles written about them. Crazy.

 

Believe it or not.. some of us actually WANT to drive a stick and prefer it OVER a flappy paddle car! When we buy a very expensive toy we want the "experience" that comes with it... and for some of us flappy paddles diminish that. So for some of us the perfect experience is rowing gears with the engine wailing behind us. For that.. supply and demand says we have to pay.

The real indicator is what people do with their money... not what they say.

 

Not really.

I too want a MT - I've had at least one MT car in possession for over 35 straight years, including 2 MT Ferraris. Regardless, there should be enough of those cars for the few of us who actually do want to drive them.

Unfortunately, they majority of those who are buying these cars today aren't driving them. Think about it.

 

fewer people though, as we see how the cars were ordered from the factory.

I agree that the factor driving up the price for m/t cars now is from speculators who think its the cool thing to have. I doubt people who spent 200k on a m/t 430 are driving them.