Predicting value of 430s and 458s

If they can turn a profit you better believe they will do it.

Also, if the halo car soon becomes not how fast it will go... but how much fun it is to drive (its possible since cars look to becoming autonomous)... Halo cars I.E. Bugatti type of halo cars might become manuals... Im sure Getrag would be more than happy to keep producing the same thing they have been producing for decades than reinvent the wheel... Im sure they will give nice prices for the transmissions

 

A 430 stick or 360CS will hold their value or go up excluding a recession.

I ALWAYS consider these cars as investments first and thrill rides second and am a car guy through and through.
Choose wisely and it can be done.

 

True.

But Ferrari wont build a 430 or 599 stick again; there is the rarity element.

 

Exactly why a F355 is the sweet spot for me.

 

So? There is nothing particularly iconic about either vehicle. If they announced a short run version of say an F12 and 488 MT, the premiums for 430s and 599s MTs would almost disappear.

 

Right, because that's exactly what's happened with older manual Porsches went Porsche phased out the manual on cars like the GT3 and then brought it back with limited cars like the 911R.

Oh wait...

 

While it didn't affect the pre-'99 cars (the same way a new Ferrari manual wouldn't affect a Boxer or Daytona), it wiped out all the speculative gains of the non-RS 997.1 & 997.2 GT3s, putting them right back near the values previous to the announcement of the non-MT 991 GT3.

So if this played out with Ferrari or Lamborghini, the first thing to go would be $600k manual 599s and $225k manual 430s

 

I can't see Ferrari or Lamborghini bringing back manual but would love it if they did. Both to get access to drive manual in a modern car and to bust the stupid collectors who ruin the market asking obserd prices for their manual cars.

 

You are calling this too quickly, how many 911Rs are on the ground? Ohh wait... How many have traded hands??? Ohh wait..

Yes... it is already happening.

997 GT3s and even RSs are cooling off. Quickly. They are not the quick run up they once were. They will soon be like many other porsches. Deseriable and great cars. But.. the next one will always be better.

 

Brown Ferraris are rare. are they worth more?

How about a Brown 360 with a factory sun roof? rare.

You cant forget the other side of what drives price. There is supply... and then demand.

The 599 in a stick has reportedly been pretty terrible to drive.

Also, I still stand by the possibility of following old collector car trends.

Loaded up with every bell and whistle and option of the time is a huge value adder and always has been. If you were collecting a car from the 50s or 60s you would want dual antennas, more carbs, more power seats, windows, both tops etc... etc...

For the last decade. The stripped out cars have come into there own as well. A big block non ss car with dog dish wheels has become cool.

The middle of the road... is just that.

 

Why are you comparing their past run up to their current price increase? They've had a huge increase and have leveled off this past year. I wouldn't anticipate them to keep going up. As people like to say, trees don't grow to the sky. I haven't seen them plummet in price and you won't see that when everyone has their 911R. I know several people who are getting 911Rs and not one is even considering giving up their 4.0 RS or 3.8 RS because of the R.

By the way, Carrera GTs are actually going down. Do you think that they're going down because Porsche is releasing the 911R and that has eliminated the demand for the Carrera GT? That's not rhetorical. I am actually asking for your opinion.

 

I am well aware of the carrera GTs going down. And absolutely not. The two cars are not related. The 911R does not replace a carrera GT in a garage. I think Carrera GTs cooled off because... well they got over hyped. Just like all of the porsches did. All the speculators jumped in and pushed prices up and up and up... Now they actually have to sell to end users... There are just not enough end users to sustain just shy of a million dollars... so they are dropping until they start trading hands again. Also many cars suddenly became for sale when they were approaching a million dollars from 275. Many people said... well I love the car... but this is where I get off. Ive owned it for several years... had my fun... Ill take my 500k profit and buy something else ive wanted.

I know of two 4.0RS owners and 1 3.8 owner who are saying they would get rid of there 4.0RS. I know of 1 who already has gotten rid of one of there 4.0s (they had 2 admittedly so one is staying).

The R is a competitor to 4.0 or 3.8. I know we can draw differences etc... but at the end of the day. It is. Some will keep the 911R over the 4.0 (from what they are telling me) because its more streetable... and they would like to go somewhere without the wing. Some of the wives think the wing and sticker pack look a little too ridiculous to go do dinner in. The R will give the owner a super special car with the specailness in a more broadly appealing package.

All that being said the 4.0 is one of my all time favorite cars.

 

You are making my point with the CGT. Things reach a price where the current sent of owners don't feel like it's worth holding on at the current price. The guys who buy at the new high price are a different buyer and they have a different need/use of money. That is why some of these care are going down, and not because there is a new manual car.

I completely disagree that any price change on the 997 GT3RS is due to the 911R. Any potential price change (which I have yet to see) is due to the exact same thing that the CGTs are going through. The 997 GT3RS cars are the last Mezger motor GT car and the last mostly mechanical car. The 911R does the rev matching for you. They're not comparable cars in just about any sense of the cars themselves. If you want to talk about limited production or buzz, then they're comparable. As far as the cars themselves, they're very different.

Substitute "GT3RS" for "CGT" in your statement and I am completely on board. It's not because of the new manual R.

Are you out shopping GT3RSs right now?

 

Well... let me start off by saying we are probably both in agreement. However, you are either missinterpreting what I am saying or I am not saying it well enough...

Your argument of insert GT3RS for CGT is completely invalid. I could insert the word Ketchup or Mustard or shoelace there.

Where we differ is why prices went up. Where we value each car at the end of the day.

Of course the settling of pricing can be applied to ANYTHING. Thats economics.

First let me say this. You put words in my mouth. I NEVER said the reason that GT3RS prices are going down is because the 911R came out. The 911R is only a few hundred cars for the US market. I don't think 911Rs specifically are going to bring the price of those cars down. There are not enough of them hitting the market that it will effect the price significantly. It may cool the super hype on the 4.0 a little just because the dogs have new tail to chase but overall the change wont

What I did say/try to imply is that a manufacturer offering still making those cars can still make manuals and bring down the value. Many collectors/speculators shouted LAST MANUAL GT3!!!! And now we have a GT3 type street car and an actual GT3 being offered with a 6 speed. Will they offer an RS with a manual... who knows... I would say it is VERY likely. I would just say never say never.

My argument for the carrera GT is completely different. Again, I am looking at the car from a further distance than you or from a different perspective I think.

The Carrera GT was extremely undervalued. They were always "worth" more than 275 in my opinion. 275k-450k when Enzos were 1.5 million was ridiculous.

A GT3RS even a 4.0 is not a Carrera GT. A carrera GT is an icon. A supercar. A representation of Porsches finest flag ship model and engineering. Its first carbon car. Its first 10 cylinder car. The last of the analogs. The car is an icon.

THe GT3RS 4.0 could be the pinnacle. But... it is yet to be seen. For all we know Porsche could do a GT3RS 4.0.1 with a manual and a 550 hp engine that revs to eleventy billion RPM.

The carrera GT has over a decade behind it now. Regulations have been implemented that will never allow that car to be made again.

The carrera GT has a lore of being difficult to drive and many of a professional driver has cracked one up. Of course we have a James Dean like even in one as well with Paul Walker (yes I know thats a bit of a stretch, but to a certain generation... Paul Walker was kind of close to it but)

The Carrera GT in my opinion has cooled off. But if they came down to 600k. Id open my wallet. I think its a 2 million dollar car.

I PERSONALLY dont feel that a gt3RS 3.8 car is worth what people are getting for them. I think the 991 was more special despite the PDK. Its just a more special car.

I like the 997.1RS because it was the first of its kind, came in awesome colors etc... I think it was a great car. I love the way they drive the way they sound etc... I don't think they will be 500k cars for a very very very very long time if ever. I think RS3.8s are over priced. I think the 997.1 cars were over priced. Don't know where they are at at the moment. I know they have slid a bit. But the price is more than I am willing to pay at the moment.

Am I in the market for an RS.

I am in the market for almost any car. Unfortunately, I am more motivated by my perceived value. Right now I am into other cars. I have written these cars off for the most part until the music stops and some people step out of the market. Until then... I will entertain myself with other cars. When I feel like the hilarity has stopped... I will return.

So Yes. I am in the market, but not at these prices. I think they are over inflated.

Please dont take the top of my message as being rude. I was trying to be blunt for clarity. Not to be a jerk. I don't mean any of this message in a harsh tone. We are just two car guys having a discussion about things that are BOTH of our best guesses.

 

I don't think that any of that is rude. Also, while I don't agree with some of what you're saying, I feel that you got there withe well reasoned thinking in responses to what you have personally seen. I see how you got there and based on what you've posted, it makes sense that you would feel like that.

Through my car collecting, I have had some different experiences than you have and have formed some different opinions. But that's all it is: my opinion. As you said, these are our best guesses and if everyone knew exactly what would happen, there would be no need for discussions like this. I appreciate your whole input and it will be interesting to see where things go.

By the way, I 100% agree with your CGT assessment, right down to the JD/PW analogy.

 

Well open that dusty thing up, because one has just been posted in the classifieds with a $550k ask.

I'll PM you with an address you can send my finders fee to......cheers!

 

I think we just became best friends!

 

My heart sank!

Unfortuantely that car has 27k miles on it... and is red... I would consider a red one with proper mileage but it would be one of my last choices.

 

Within this exchange is the best analysis of the current Porsche market I have read. You should be charging for this. So, thank you, both. Even if it is a bit off topic.

 

Back on topic, the question to consider is whether future generations will consider the last midengine 6MT of some 430s more important than the last NA V8 of the 458.

If future generations aren't too busy gaming in their driverless iCars to care.

 

WTH? The car is properly discounted for the miles.....and if you truly believe its a $2M car in a few years the miles won't mean a damn thing. And its just an ask price, maybe you get $50k off.

And Guards Red is a CLASSIC Porsche color

Me thinks your wallet isn't up to the challenge

 

I thought that was Porsche-forum thing?

"I think this price is GIVING IT AWAY (of course being the forum its $5k over every eBay car).. if I didn't just buy a new car/already bought one/just got divorced/lost all my money in a pyramid scheme/ I would totally buy this. Someone should buy this."

 

Ferrari can build as many brown 488's as you can order.

Order one with a manual.

I didn't create the "manual market" but apparently there is a demand..now.
BTW I called the 599 manual market years ago.

IMO there is a ratcheting to this market.
Sure the speculation has taken a hit (which may affect factory plans for production of manuals) but the cars remain the same and the demand will therefore be back.

 

Uh oh.

 

meanwhile back at the ranch....

where will 430 prices go?

i think they have some more downside, but i am pessimist.