Are we about to see a jump in the value of all gas-powered Ferraris?

Not so fast...



No, Germany Did Not Issue A Death Sentence For Fossil-Fuel Cars

Bertel Schmitt
FORBES CONTRIBUTOR

Electrek is one of the better green websites, and it only occasionally makes mistakes. Yesterday, it made a big mistake that could cost investors a lot of money.

“All new cars mandated to be electric in Germany by 2030,” the website headlined yesterday, announcing that “Germany is about to become the first major country to set an official deadline for a ban on gas-powered cars.” Should you have bought or sold shares on that news, quickly cancel the order. The newsflash is flat out wrong.

It is pure fantasy that, as Electrek writes, “a senior government official in Germany confirmed they will impose a mandate for all new cars registered in the country to be emissions free by 2030. The mandate will be part of Germany’s pledge to cut carbon dioxide output by 80% to 95% by 2050.”

Let’s retrace the baloney’s gestation.

Electrek apparently has the alleged news from Toronto’s Globe and Mail, which used a Bloomberg piece, albeit with a catchier headline: “All cars in Germany must be emissions free by 2030, official says.” Also not true.

The paper was led astray by Bloomberg, which somewhat correctly, but apparently confusingly wrote that “all new cars registered in Germany need to be emissions free by 2030 at the latest to help meet pollution reduction goals, a senior government official said.”

So what did really happen?

The official is Rainer Baake. He is not Germany’s “Deputy Economy Minister,” as Bloomberg erroneously writes, he is a public servant, State Secretary of Germany’s Ministry of Economy and Energy. In Germany, that ministry has no jurisdiction over cars. In Germany, Baake’s nickname is “Mister Energiewende,” the man in charge of the country’s energy pivot away from fossil FOSL +6.44% fuel and nuclear towards alternative, renewable energy such as solar, or wind. Baake is a reputable and feared environmental technocrat. For six years, he served as head of the environmental pressure group Deutsche Umwelthilfe, the same group that is Enemy Number One of Europe’s auto industry which reels under DUH’s relentless dieselgate attacks. Rainer Baake also is a member of the Green Party.

At a Berlin investment confab, organized by the Tagesspiegel newspaper, Baake was a speaker. Germany’s target is to lower CO2 emissions by 95% by 2050. At the meeting, Baake raised doubts that the target will be met. “There’s been no reduction at all in CO2 emissions by transport since 1990,” Baake noted, saying that since cars typically have a 20-year lifespan, registrations of new diesel and gasoline cars would have to be cut over the next 15 years to get anywhere near the 2050 target. Baake voiced a personal opinion, that’s all.

In reality, to get anywhere near the 2050 CO2 reduction goals, Germany’s plans to have 6 million EVs on its roads by 2030. That would be 10% of the currently 61.5 million vehicles, and it is a tall order. Despite a new EUR 4.000 incentive, Germany’s Environment Ministry projects that EV sales will only reach 500.000 electric cars by 2020. According to the EV-Sales scorekeeper, Germans bought only 1,622 EVs last April,

There is no law in Germany to go all electric by 2030, nor did the state secretary say that there should be one. Such a demand could cause civil war in a car-worshiping Germany, a country where, despite scientific proof that diesel exhaust causes cancer, the government does not budge from its support for the fuel and the auto industry. If Baake would have come even close to suggesting a ban of ICE cars, you would hear a loud howl from Germany’s media. However, should enterprising Electrek run a Google search for original news on the topic, it will find only one authoritative mention in the German language, written by the Tagesspiegel newspaper that organized the conference. The paper is closer to the matter than anyone, and it devotes only a very short paragraph to Baake and the climate goals:

“Even the politicians are cautious. The Paris climate goals are ambitious, said Rainer Baake, State Secretary in the Economy Ministry. There is a lack of suitable tools to implement the objectives, he said.”

 

It's good to see some proper old-fashioned journalism putting paid to a web-spread rumour. Thanks.

 

Bertel Schmitt is an industry guy retired from VW. He was later the editor at The Truth About Cars. Good to see Flash dredge up a legit source.

 

Agree

 

Germany has done some really stupid crap energy-wise in the past.

Effectively killing E15 gas wasn't one of them. This falls in the same category.

Eliminating new gas/diesel ain't gunna happen UNTIL:

Electric can go as far as gas per 'tank' and

Refuel time is comparable (10-15 minutes, TOPS).


Old data but you get the pic:

Germany is roughly the size of Washington and has about 25% of all cars/trucks in the USA transiting it's territory daily.

It physically does not have the land to build the parking/recharge facilities required at the current limits of electric vehicles to meet demand. Imagine a 300 mile trip taking 12-16 hours. They won't 'Go There. '

E-Cars/Trucks have a Loooooooog way to improve first.

 

When Ferrari goes electric, RACE will be worth $0.00 per share.

Internal Combustion and a wind in the face IS Ferrari.

Electrify Ferrari and an electric Yugo/Trabby is just as good.

 

Respectfully disagree. If anybody can build an exciting electric car it's Ferrari.

 

Here's the bottom line... internal combustion engines are going to be around as long as petroleum is sucked from the earth. And since petroleum is necessary in the production of so many products, it isn't going away anytime soon.

Furthermore, when someone tells me that we should "stop drilling for oil," I always ask them how jet planes will be fueled. The conversation ends there.

Petroleum, and petroleum powered cars aren't going anywhere.

 

I admit I am a dinosaur.

There is NOTHING 'Exciting' about an electric anything except an electric blanket.

 

Or electric chair.

 

While I am not an advocate of electric cars the Porsche Mission E looks pretty interesting in many respects if the current hype can be believed?
Range 300 miles
Recharging time 10-15 minutes for 80% charge
Great looks IMO
Price ?? Assume competitive with Tesela S ?

 

I am a dinosaur too. I like V8's, V12's, steam engines, even horses at times. It may not always be efficient but a bit of excess is fun at times. There is just something... vegan about when things become too efficient.
And well-to-wheel the electric car is no better than your average run off the mill sedan. The inefficiencies are more spread-out and less obvious but that doesn't mean they're not there.

An electric blanket exciting? lol I can think of a few other far more exciting electric things...

Ok, basically all of them power tools

 

But only for a split second.




You "GOT ME" on that one, Flash.

 

Like "BOB."

 

Thanks for the information fellas. Great sleuthing around Flash G and I agree with mwr4440 about the things needed to go full electric. I do think its coming but there is still some time left for the ICE.

I think you probably have to look at Ferrari less as a car and more as a special experience. To that end I have a feeling they will be able to stick with some form of ICE for a long time. They need that sound and experience but the world changes and they will also find a way to change with it. That's why they make the big money.

 

LOL. More "fuel" for the hypeman speculators to use to justify higher and higher prices.

"Buy them now, they "may not" make internal combustion engines much longer."


Anyone dumb enough to bite on that fishing line should just go to the local chevy dealer and start buying all the cars on the lot LOL.

"The world population is increasing." Better run to the ferrari dealer and buy as many cars as you can!


"Buy as much real estate as possible. They're not making oceanfront property anymore!"

-A statement made by a fool in 2007

 

Actually, I agree with you.

Would it be more exciting than Petrol? Depends on what kind of regulations they have on petrol powered cars in the future. If Ferrari had to make a 1 liter car that gives 100 MPG by mandate, it's probably not going to be much fun.

 

Really?

I beg to differ! :
Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

Would you not find an all-electric Zero Motorcycle that easily does 0-60 in 3.3 sec. exciting, or would it not be exciting simply because it is an electric vehicle?

 

Harley is set to build a production electric motorcycle. Not so sure when it will be released however.

 

I disagree with Flash. Petrol powered cars will be outlawed way before we stop finding fossil fuels.

If the gasoline engine had never been invented until today, it would be considered illegal. The fuel has chemicals in it that are carcinogenic, is highly flammable, and toxic. The gases emitted went burnt are as well. It's noisy and drops environmentally damaging oil on the ground. And, to get this fossil fuel material we have to drill under the ground and in the oceans as well as ship it and refine it causing even more environmental issue.

For these reasons, the world will work to remove them slowly from existence even if there are adequate fuel supplies left.

Its just a matter of time.

However, something is coming that is even worse than this. Its the outright banning of non-self collision avoidance cars on the road. Soon cars will talk to one another and sense a collision. They will also be self governing to not exceed speed limits. Cars that do not have this technology will be considered "too dangerous" for the roads -- in a way that we don't allow a race car to run on city streets.

When this happens even vintage cars will be allowed to drive only on tracks or by permit only.

How long before this happens? Maybe 30 years but I think sooner.

 

It's happening really fast. It's getting to the point where me as a mechanic am starting already to begin training in EV vehicals.

 

Rather ironic...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/science/nasa-electric-plane-x57.html?_r=0

 

In 30 years l will be 100...doubt if l will still be driving. Lol

Today we live in truly a golden age of sports cars. Enjoy the present moment to the max.

Can't see any reason to build a self driving sports cars. What's the point?

As fracking has shown...lots of hydrocarbons to burn. Natural gas is the cleanest.

Best