is the bubble due to burst?

I owned a Turbo R for a couple of years - I had that in the garage more times than any other car I have ever owned - and some cars I have owned over 20 years!

It was great at spinning the wheels away from the lights though (which may have had something to do with it) - not fast - just hilarious!

 

well said. Seriously. For a guy you have had numerous arguments with... Way to intelligently put together a response

 

Thanks technom3.

I want to make it clear there is nothing wrong talking about bubbles. It's a healthy a good thing. It is confusing however when you say one thing, then do the exact opposite for years on these boards. The least I can do is expose it, so others have context. If you like Ferrari - great! if you hate Ferrari, good for you!

I don't care - but if say one thing and do the opposite year after year, I will call it out.

Drive in good health!

 

the financial talking heads are talking about the various central banks planning more rounds of printing money... the problem is that previous rounds of easing ( printing money) have not had the desirable effects that were expected... the problem is there is a limit to how much can be printed before running into severe consequences... the various economies have not been responding to the stimulus, another failure of no response from the economies becomes toxic for the monetary systems... namely holding diluted currencies comes with unfavorable consequences to posted values, until the economies sort themselves out... holding other forms of store of value allows for transition to better conditions...holding an asset as an Fcar would be better than holding currency which does not do a good job as toilet paper

 

I haven't spoken a word to this clown in ages after I put him on ignore, (yet he continues to troll and act like a child). (PaulChua). Not sure what you mean about having "Numerous arguments." He continues to have arguments with himself, not me. 30 percent of the garbage he continues to drudge up is sarcasm, but he clearly has little sense of humor. Sounds like alot of fun! And quite productive. He must lead a very fulfilling and exciting life

 

So here you go

Fair warning twice given by Paul Chua, after I had already put him on ignore, this was back in January. So he has now been trolling and instigating for seven months without a response from me. (I have not been able to see it today since you paraphrased this message). Also this was in an art-related thread that had nothing to do with the ONE conversation I had with him, which ended after he began calling me names. Something that I never did to him.

1. Two points he made in the warning were regarding people that are speculating. (I never once called anyone on here directly a name or directly insulted them. Also, I never flip-flopped on anything. I sold my cars last summer to free up cash, and I did so at the right time when the market was about at its peak. I was not there to make money on them. Sold my Maranello at a break even, (sunk 20k into it and drove the wheels of of it) and sold my TR at a profit. I bought the TR back at a lower price. Just as I said would happen to the market. So how is that a flip flop? LOL

2. Again, I never bought my cars to flip. I drove each car about 4k miles in a 2 year period, and I even bought one of them back at a lower price. But apparently Paulchua has a window into the inner gears of my brain that I am not aware of.
Paulchua suggests that I buy more salvage cars that are exempt from the runup, yet the asking prices are still significantly higher than before (my car was proof of this) wrong again. Yet he lies and changes the words up to meet his perspective/need to be a troll.

3. Says that I wish Ferrari owners ruin. Wrong again, as I was referring to the "new money in the market" that are speculating. Not the enthusiast. Show me one time I've ever directly wished anyone on the board "ruin". Another out of context lie.

4. Uses an out-of-context humor scenario describing someone who is simply following the herd (speculating). And then brings up another scenario where prices were getting distorted. (yes dinos were changing hands for F40 money before the F40 did the run-up. A sign that I knew something wasn't right, but had not yet conceded a market bubble, just in Dinos). All I did was mention this. And again referring to speculators only. But Paul doesn't care, he's a troll. Also brings up 512trs here where at the time period in 2012 (bubble hadn't lifted off yet on modern) 512trs were selling for 60-80k. I even attempted to buy a black 512TR with an asking of 72k out in LA at the time. One dealer in Florida was asking crazy money for a car less clean than that one with a cell phone hole in the fender. This is what I was referring to. Another lie by Paulchua. Also, I didn't see the bubble yet as it was only limited to the dino at that time. Nor did I claim their was a bubble in 2012. And he further mentions TRs listed north of 100 in April 2013. There were PLENTY of private party cars listed and changing hands in the 60s and 70s at the time. Another lie by Paulchua.

5. post makes no sense, says the crash will hurt enthusiasts? LOL. Not at all, just noted that the enthusiasts will not be there to support the outrageous prices and won't step in until they become more realistic. Another blatant play on words

6. Posts were made in the art market forum (not motors) and was supported by one of the members on here has been heavily involved in the high dollar auction houses. Basically units changing hands (art or cars) in the 500k and up range are heavy targets for money launderers or people setting up straw companies to bid on their own item. Yes this does happen Paulchua. And I never said that this is the biggest cause to a run-up in prices during a bubble. I said it is a "symptom" of the bubble as the run-up draws in more greed.

7. Again says I "hate owners and call them pigs" another lie as I only said this about the new money speculators. And notes the sale where I noted the prices were rising at the time. (which they were) not sure how this can be seen as "talking up". A moot point anyhow being that nobody has the ability to talk the market up or down. Transactions talk, words do not.

8. harassed me for weeks to talk to him so that he could "prove me wrong" and call me names. The reason I did not want to was that most on this thread know view and arguments/evidence and DON'T NEED to hear it spewed out again. (I was trying to spare them) that's why it was moved to PM. In which Paul asked me a thousand questions and then at the end started calling me names (which is why I told him to get lost). He then kept replying "oh I must have struck a nerve." Total instigator and then I put him on ignore, yet he continued to troll FOR SEVEN MORE MONTHS without a reponse until today.

9. Run-up in prices are annoying to enthusiasts because not all of them are big time millinaires and billionaires which is where the run-up is leaving the price of the market.

10. Says and I quote "enthusiasts don't care about the value of their cars." Of course they do and I never said that either. Another lie. I said (as shown) that they care more about the experience, which I think many would agree that they do.

The only loser is you PaulChua, (although psycho or psychotic instigator are probably more fitting terms) unlike you I have a life and unlike you, and I quote.

"I feel it's my duty to continue to expose that you are just as guilty (sometimes even more) of the things you accuse others of."

Get a life buddy.

Sorry for all of those on here that have to read this nonsense that nobody cares about except Paul. Feel free to carry on Paul and "enjoy your duty to expose", I'm sure you have nothing else better to do today. You'd sure make an objective journalist someday. Real great work that you do. You remind me of the liberal media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1-xGuEkdLw
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Just FYI -

Ferraris And Fine Wines Lure Investors Hit By Rate Ructions



Ferraris And Fine Wines Lure Investors Hit By Rate Ructions

 

I never realized that "ructions" was a real word. I thought the article title and link was a typo where they really meant "reductions." "Ructions" is actually a good word for this thread- meaning a big rumble (fight) between players.

 

Well... i guess I want to make it clear that I am by no means siding with one person or another. I just thought he did a good job making his argument and supporting it and didn't quite resort to the standard of internet name callings etc... Thats all...

nothing against you what so ever.

 

No offense taken at all. Just figured I'd tell both sides. And his arguments were 90 percent backed by out of context statements,over-assumptions (on his behalf), and many things that I never even said, yet he implied that I said them anyway. And he did call me a name, multiple times via PM btw.

 

A few get it here prices have been run up by hype and dealers car shows Legendary Motor Cars , Wayne Carrini shouting investment in each car pimped like drug dealers Even the most mundane cars are now investments as the blue chips have gotten out of reach such as 550s 993s I get some are trying to get the ball rolling on 360s it's a good time to be a dealer or flipper they will look back on these years with rose glasses how wonderful they were cars going up in value quarterly


The ones really hurt are the true enthusiasts but don't worry our time will come hogs get fat pigs get slaughtered greed eventually causes it's own downfall

 

pretty sure what runs prices up is people paying dollars for cars. I could be wrong but I pretty sure I'm not. true enthusiast? right the guys standing outside the stadium hoping to be let in so they can yell **** from the sidelines and the same guys who bought zero cars in 2009 and 2010?

 

Lol no all the suckers that overpaid the last 2 years good luck everyone will be able to buy the car you were promised will continue to appreciate is gonna be worth a 1/3 mark my words I have always had a knack for seeing trends just like I called the RE market 2008 on this site

 

why the hate? you shld be happy those transactions happened. if your thesis is right then the market printed a certain price and prices will come down to where you are willing to buy. If prices don't come down to that point then your thesis is wrong and those suckers weren't suckers. AND some of the people who have bought after the past 2 years are happy with their purchases, so its hard to call them suckers. If you buy what you love at prices that don't impair you obligations to your family, why are you a sucker?

 

it says you joined fchat in july 09 - how did you call the RE market on here in 08 if you weren't even around?

also this post was from jan 2010 - were you not an expert yet at this time?
http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/vintage-ferrari-market/269985-what-brought-speculators-ferrari-market-70s-ever-since-then.html

 

IMO the collector car market has been manipulated into a big Ponzi scheme, its gotten out of hand when 993TTs hit $400k, 550s $180k, TRs $200k, these cars are not even that old. Used to be a collector car was at least 30 years old now its been shortened to 10, I can understand the super rare limited editions going up that were recently made but not every regular production car in big numbers is a collector car.


I am holding off on any purchases of older cars I don't want to get burned, those that bought and are happy recently good for them but the mantra on this site forever was cars are not investments buy the car you want because you like it , now thats been flipped on its head lol.

 

definitely not a Ponzi scheme - feel free to look up the definition of one. theres nothing opaque about a car you can see, touch, and drive. Demand rises, prices go higher. Demand diminishes, prices go lower. Just because something has gotten far away from your perceived notion of fair value does not mean its a Ponzi scheme. it means you shld have bought at some point prior to the appreciation...but if you are true enthusiast you shld be indifferent to where prices are. Everyone wishes they cld have bought X at y price, its life. Some pull the trigger and others don't have the wealth in time.

 

Ponzi scheme is a scam...what is this guy talking about??

 

+1

 

While others who did nothing simply decry the choices made by others. At least in the few spare seconds they have when they're not choking on their sour grapes...

 

lol...eggsactly!!

ryan, hope all is well!

pcb

 

Wow... Im a naysayer and Ive been calling bull**** on the Porsche market since it began its run up...

But you sound ridiculous at 1/3. Do you have any idea what would happen if things suddenly became worth a ONE THIRD. There would be panic and riots in the street. Yes... I said it. Yes I am referring to classic cars. Here is the deal because if a 100k dollar luxury item is suddenly worth 33k.... Then the rest of the market meaning EVERY MARKET is completely ****ed as well

While I think there will be a correction of 10ish 15ish percent. I don't think that there is anything wrong with that. Thats pre-run up plus some normal gain. That all makes sense.

If million dollar Ferraris start trading at 300k I will be the first person to sell every possession I own to start buying all of those deals up. I will start selling kidneys, livers, arms, fingers, id give up an eye... to raise the capital for that opportunity.

 

it really doesn't matter what the numbers in a price are or the denomination on a currency is, but rather what one can do with them at the time... at one time a million lira wouldn't buy a loaf of bread... the ever increasing numerical values of a currency is good indication that buying power is being lost

 

In case you are unaware, F40s have had massive swings, from $1M down to $300K then back up to $1M. I am sure there are plenty of other examples. Probably not likely to happen unless we see another big recession but it's not impossible.

Ps if you plan on selling things to buy cars if prices get that low, remember that whatever you plan on selling will also have dropped massively as well. There is no free lunch.

 

It's not just a Ferrari thing, it's an overall asset bubbled fueled by zero rates, central bank policy and a massive sovereign debt problem. Ferraris, Porsches, Rolexes, Wine, Vintage Shotguns, you name it.