is the bubble due to burst?

They produced the exact same paintings? Or just new paintings? Maybe even better or more advanced paintings. But I guess the new ones still just arent quite like the old ones...

 

Wow Joe. Are you serious or just making a joke? Do you see what is going on?

The reason it's a stereotype is nearly everyone is doing it!

 

On this I completely agree. Buy it because you want it and will enjoy it.

Don't buy it if you just want to make some cash!

 

Stop taking crap! Joe consistently reminds every one on this forum about the inflated, unrealistic and unsustainable values of the last few years on many collector cars. You stating otherwise shows that you're either uninformed or have an agenda. Just be happy with your $1MM sure thang, your Diablo.

 

The term collectible is missused or missunderstood frequently.

A 275GTB alloy car is collectible... So is a 275GTB. So is a 275 GTS

A 330 2+2... Yup still collectible.

A 360 Challenge Stradale yup collectible

A 1965 Shelby GT350. Yup Collectible... So is a 1965 Ford Mustang for 10% the price.

Collectible does not mean most valuable. Does not mean most likely to increase in value at the highest rate or margin.

There are many many many collectible cars out there. It is not the creme de la creme. It is what people want. Price is not a determination of collectible... however a car being collectible surely effects its price.

 

Of course I have an agenda to make some here think before they buy and push prices higher making this bubble last even longer, dealers or whoever is selling will find reasons why even the most mass produced cars will be collectible and appreciate, if something triples or more in prices in a few years something is up

It's just an opinion but it seems to cause issue here because I may be correct, so some try and insult bash what I say to keep the monentum of prices going

I have seen the greed before on the RE market here in Vegas talk of building homes all the way to California people selling options on high rises flipped 3 or 4 times before dirt was broken Cars are the new investment but not for long not everyone is a Corey Feldman believes the hype lol

 

I am sorry but that is your view of the world. You see it as greed and you believe that is wrong, and want to fight it. You are bashing yourself on the prices... so who is right and who is wrong?
I don't see why this would be a problem to you?

 

I want to buy a older exotic but know prices will drop a lot in the next few years so I need to wait. Probably get a newer one now instead

I don't want to pay $300k for a car that's gonna be worth $80k in a few years that's too big a hit $$ I am just investing in my business now equipment that's it

 

Collectable cars is broad term. Many cars are labeled collectable by dealers to sell to the unitiated. In fact its hard to see an add for any exotic that does not refer to its rarity collectability or investment potential.

While certain older 70s or 80s ferraris may one day be collectable, they are probably not there yet, despite the hype. But if evberythign else has been driven up, something new needs to be hyped.

What many are is future collectables. The 70's and 80s ferraris that have crossed the barrier to collctable are Dinos, glass 308s, boxers 288s and f40s. The rest of the 308s and 2+2's are not collectable, although arguably they are potential future collectables 1 or 2 car cycles from now. However their prices or askign prices were for a while reflecting an attched collectable status

We might say the last of the vipers is a future collectable too. But like all future collectables its real value increase and appreciation may be a decade off, in the interim it may well go down or at best stay flat.

Thats the difference between a collectable and a future collectable, one you know has real future value the other has speculated future value.

Does anybody think that speciale prices would be where they are without the ability of dealers to attach collectable status to them? They have not yet stood the test of time to be truly collectable, their price supported by hype and specualtors. Therefore we can see big dips in future collectable and hype cars or not dependign on the economy and hype.

As for a 360cs it may be desireable, its not imo collectable even though its been pushed or hyped to that status.

Without the collectable moniker many cars would not have their current prices because a large swath of buyers is buying them for the so called collectability, thats a fragile price. Whether time proves this correct in each cars case we cant say.

Whats certain is that with the inflection of time some cars become truely collectable because they are eitehr rare (all 250s eries ferraris) or something special like say an e-type. or air cooled porche. The best are both rare and special.

We also need to analyse styling, and what that car meant in an era. A old Fiat 500 is coillectable because it brough mobility to post war Italy, it was evcaocative of an era, and its great to look at.

A Countach, it was a promise of the unobtanium in emissions starngles and speed limited USA, on looks alone its collectable.

Then we also get into useability, cars are motive objects and owbers like to drive them on occasion, the more sueable the more it adds value.

A mille Miglia elgiable car is worth more than the same car built a year later and so on.

The drawback of the CT is where do you really use it, and very few people are up to drivign it. But then the looks overshadow anyway.

In the end lots of factors build into the price of a particular marque and model. Off that dealers and magazines build hype and stories to take it furtehr. If there is one car really undervalued today its surely the LM002, especialy as its the graddaddy and still most outrageous of the sporty suv and the next generation thinks suv.

 

Good post Sean. Agree with all of it especially this below.

 

I agree the Dealers have oversold this market A true collectible car gets out of price for certain buyers they look for the next that can be persuaded to be collectible classic then the next till you have what's going on now.

Probably easier to do in this day and age of instant pricing and info up to the last 5 mins of the Internet and to spread the Hype

 

Sorry, I'm not buying that. When the Speciale was released in the UK, dealers had a problem shifting orders. Some even offered incentives. Then reports on the car's remarkable performance and agility began to spread via word of mouth (c/o global platforms such as FChat) and guess what? The Speciale became hot.

Dealers react to market conditions and sentiment. They can try and ride it for their advantage (up, down or sideways) and I don't blame them one jot. It's business. But dealers react, they can't over-time fundamentally make the market.

As for the Speciale it is an outstanding car. Period.

And while we're talking about the market, some nice cars may have benefitted from a rising tide and are frothy, but the best will remain firm and probably grow stronger.

Why? Because the market is unlike anything we've experienced.

First, no central Bank has the balls to curtail the flow of cash; interest rates are going nowhere. The bigger crisis the more Banks will pump funny money. Is this prudent? Of course not. But it's so out of control there's no way back. And tangible assets have therefore never been more......valued.

Argue for sure about which car is tangible asset status, but some most definitely are.

Second, the massive impact of mobile technology.

I find it bizarre everyone talks about the market before 2007. It's irrelevant.

On 29 June 2007 the first gen iPhone was released. That changed everything for everyone. In less than 10 years it - along with its look-alike rivals - has transformed everything. As Mr Jobs predicted.

Uber wouldn't exist without the smartphone. Facebook now connects with 3.6 billion people, half the planet (including IG and WA) and is worth hundreds of billions in market cap. Because it pivoted to mobile.

Mobile technology now connects 4.8 billion people in total. It's changing customer behaviour and preferences, it's changing governments. And it's created a global market for desirable anything including cars. Yes, regulatory restrictions exist but if I wanted to sell something like an F50, I now have many channels and markets to explore. 10 years ago I would have called a few UK specialists and hoped for the best.

The market today is a new world. I'm not saying it's easier or safer but I do believe it is very different from anything pre 2008. And the gems are may become even more desirable.

 

Hi Pete. What magic crystal ball do you have to make you quote such a depreciation in price of " a older exotic " in the next few years. And do you also mean a classic Ferrari older than 50 years ?

 

Bingo

Auction houses are not interested in the problems of the buyers or sellers. They are only interested in pushing tin. They get the money on the up or on the down.

They hype cars as investments like that guy who runs around in a golf cart selling gold coins.

Its just money to them. And true collectors and enthusiasts are left in the dust.

 

It's what prices should be and were before the hype, don't have a crystal ball it's common sense. There were 11 Countaches on eBay desperately looking for homes no takers never seen so many in 15 years that tells a lot

The air cooled 911 market is nuts, I have owned many they are cool cars but have a lot of issues the motors don't last past 100k without rebuilds, valves need constant adjustment or burn, leak oil like the Valdez, weak transmission syncros 2nd gear, over heat in traffic, AC is worthless etc My personal favorite is the leaking oil return tubes that drip oil on the exhaust makes you look real cool pulling up to a light a bunch of burning smoke coming out the back of the motor So over $100k for one Lol Ok

Ferrari makes a much better motor and car although one time after driving my carb Boxer all morning a waitress at a restaurant asked if I had car trouble since I smelled like gas guess it was running rich that day lol

 

Jeff, so if I am reading you right you are talking your book and you are saying the world is wrong, should listen to you and sell so you can buy low.

It is people like you that I am not on investment forums anymore, so many people talking the market down when they are out or short, and talking it up the next day when they are in.
You don't actually believe what you are saying because if you were, you would sell your cars.

 

m

Wouldn't sell the Diablo for the value it's at now for the money nothing can compare, it's an analog car raw 2wd Only thing that compares would be a 288GTO or F40 I bought it after selling the Boxer got a good deal way in the black for values now but still wouldn't sell for current prices

I sold my Boxer fall 2014 market at its theoretical peak just recently sold my F355 which has had a run up in the past year lagging the Boxers

It takes buyers and sellers in a speculative market which we are in one now to make a market each think they are right time will tell but facts are facts there is oversupply now little buyers

 

Beautifully stated, Camlet.

I also believe these factors explain why special cars and even some regular production cars are achieving "collectible status" in such a short time frame: e.g. gated manual mid 2000's Ferraris and more dramatically and almost instantaneously, the latest limited production Ferraris (GTO, Speciale, SA, tdf, LaF). With the increased flow of money and information, it's almost an inevitable conclusion.

And, I really don't see us ever going back. Even with hiccups along the way, the information flow and desire for special cars will continue to outstrip the supply as technology advances bring more and more people into the upper socioeconomic classes. Add in governmental interference and regulations and many cars (e.g. normally aspirated engines and V12's) are becoming desirable only a few years after they were built.

Vintage and even 1980/1990's Ferraris are also considerably more difficult to maintain (parts scarcity, labor intensive servicing, expertise), and the modern Ferraris are so damn capable, usable, and reliable. I'm 49 years old and as much as I love the 250 GTO, SWB, F40, Enzo, etc, those cars don't appeal to me as much as the more recent models because I want to use my cars regularly on road and track. Another possible factor in the phenomenon of instant collectibles.

As so many have said, buy what you love and enjoy. Time is more valuable and harder to replace than money.

 

+1 there is something to be said for both of these posts . I love the vintage cars and in fact have recently been considering a daytona (one of my favorites) but thing is I feel i would enjoy a 599 GTO more .. could drive it all i want would always start .....has real AC lots of power...etc....
tough problem i guess. your post just describes my mind set of recently

 

Exactly.

I have clients & facilitate deals on all 7 continents whilst sitting here in So. California.

We just completed a deal this week where a Miura in Belgium (that was from South Africa and previously sold to the UK) has now been sold to the USA.

BTW if you ever have thoughts about parting with that F50, we remain at your disposal

 

Spot-on.

His motivation (& history of same) is so blatant you can see it from a mile away.

Here's the thing:

He bought a Diablo so he talks the market up with mythical $1m predictions

He wants a cheap Countach so he talks the market down with $80k predictions.

Zero credibility same old song-and-dance.

I'm afraid his posts are not worth the space they occupy on this subject.

But they are entertaining

 

Do tell - what have you sold into / from Antarctica?

 

Funny, I'm a bit younger (42, almost 43) but tend to gravitate to the older stuff. The brand new stuff, even the hyper cars, leaves me a bit cold because it's way too capable for public roads (especially here in the U.S.), not great on track (you could definitely have a better track car than a 918, P1 or LaFerrari at a reasonable cost), and typically unproven (hyper cars, 599 gto, etc.) in motorsports. At the end it's mostly about making an amazing technological statement. I can appreciate it but it doesn't quite do it for me...

One thing that i can totally agree with is that "time is more valuable and harder to replace than money". It's very well said and part of what makes these bubble discussions tricky. Say I'm pretty certain cars have 70% chance of dropping by 50% in five years (so expected drop of more than third). I may still be eager to go ahead and buy a car I really like and want to enjoy. Once you get a bit older and become aware that you have a finite number of good summers ahead of you these decisions become more about quality of life rather than financial gain/loss...