is the bubble due to burst?

+1.

 

Ok lets start witht he speciale. Maybe in the Uk they couldnt shift them, here they were like a 911R all sold out and slots selling a premium before the first one turned a wheel, you know like contemprary art and instant collectable.

I agree its a superlative car. But the values now are very much supported by a collector buyers class, the type who couldnt tell the difference between how a speciale of a 360 drove. You know they bouth make Italian noises and have paddles.So thse peopel buya speaciale not because its a superlaitive car, but because from ferrari to magazines etc its been superlaively marketed, and yes there is a lot of central bank money sloshing about.

So yes the I phone and info, including classic magazines(which derive revenue from dealer advertsing) lauding a car make them more saleable, and yes all that newly created money has to find a home, but thats the point. The money is seeking a home and the car prices are supported by 50% hype because there is a whole buyer class based on hype, and hype like hot air does not last forever, although it can return.

Events change, suddenly surplus cash can dissapear, or the buyers move on to other trinkets of desire. then the car settle to their real value. Maybe a speciale is sustanaible because its a ferrari, because its the last NA one because the 458 was the most beautiful ferrari in a long time, but a 360Cs.

And when the speciale is two generation suceeded by a 548 or whatever, it will be a 360cs.
American muscle followed the exact same trajectory and through auction houses as spaghetti iron. In the end some blue chip items held close to their value and a lot of hyped items settled higher than before the runup but nowhere near the peak, and since then the market is flooded with cars and flat. Same will inevitably happen here.

Nothing goes up forever, there is always a recorrection, and the more hyped an item is the more it recorrects.

Yes some cars are definatly tangible assets, I guess what myself and others here are saying is that many hyped as such are not.

Maybe you are right, this market due to tech and free money is unlike anythign we saw before, but the laws of supply and demmand have not been suspended.

Its also very true that dealers can for a time can make markets, they can do so when conditions allow as is case recently. Whats needed is a good flow of money and the perception of prices rising, plus marketing of somehting new to collect, it used to be american iron now its spaghetti iron.

Dealers with enough balls and creditlines start to tighten the market by absorbign and holdign inventory. people and markets always overshoot.

Bugatti Eb110, Jaguar Xj220 maclaren F1, all from an era that ended in tears when dealers and manufactuers thought it could never end.

Maybe youre right all that free money means there lots of steam left, and maybe the Iphone has expanded the consumer base, but in the end it will have been overdone. Then maybe a speaciale will sell for its real price, which is probably soemwhere 20% below new list.

As to the arguemt that they are not makign new old cars, well as long as the defintion of a collectable car keeps expanding the inventory of collectable cars will keep exapnding.

I have seen 3 or 4 car market cycles in my time. History doies not repeat exactly but it rhymes, and this one rhymes.

 

You'd be surprised

 

Noted Joe. Her sn is 106895 and is in very rude health. However at the moment I'm enjoying her way too much .

Here she's being spotted a few weeks ago, not sure of the Bad Boy description lol.
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All fair points. I'm not an advocate of the Speciale's current asking prices even though I own one (and happily an exact matching spec 458 SA too). My Speciale was 249K GBP new fully loaded and a dealer would probably add a minimum of 30% to this retail today. I think that's frankly silly as while it was a limited run, it wasn't an LE.

My point is the desire surrounding the Speciale isn't hype per se. It is a superb car and I am not surprised at all that if you want a well cared for Speciale you might have to pay a little beyond its original price. But not 30%+

Per the general discussion I absolutely agree, the laws of supply and demand remain the same, but the parameters have changed forever. Look at the Whiskey market. It's now global business and quality Whiskey producers can't produce quality variants fast enough. The bubble will burst for nice cars which are over-inflated because people have tried to puff them up to ride the market. IMO the Dino is a case in point. It went from around 100K GBP in 2011 to over 350K GBP recently. If someone had paid anything like 300ish I would advise move swiftly for the exit.

But like the Whiskey producers, the new normal means real quality is much sought after; it requires informed gut feel, deep research and a cool head to spot the winners. To your point about the laws of S&D never changing, the skill required to separate the wheat from the chaff has never been more important. And that's why it's tremendous fun, and why I suspect people like Mr Sackey continue to flourish.

 

Joe you have a lot to lose When this market crashes as a used car salesman, I knew I would take heat from some here I dont care. Like I said you are quick to pounce on anyone that doesnt agree with your rosy outlook nothing has changed the train keeps rolling, cars are great investments sure to appreciate its a global market now new paradigm.

Not everyone is a gullible fool and believes a used car pimp, those that do good for them lol.

 

Spoken like a true used car sales man, divert the question.

Post the sn of the car or your full of it.

It would be in my best interest to keep saying how the market has much more to go so I could cash in my $1M Diablo, then use the money for business and wait for the market to crash down the road if that were the case.

Not even 100% sure I want a Countach prob will buy something newer I can drive and enjoy, but even newer cars have been caught up in the hype, ie 6 speeds.

 

WOW. Great shot! Glad to hear you are enjoying her!

 

Thanks, I don't miss an opportunity to use her. Helps keep her in tip-top condition too.

Funny thing is the Spotters on Instagram go nuts for her. The F50 has an entire new generation coming through who absolutely love it. Who would've thought

 

Nothing to lose in my position as a specialist facilitator.

As I said earlier "when values are on the way up, flat, or on the way down, each stage represents nice opportunities."

I welcome it all.

 

Thanks!

Couldn't agree more. From my own experience I haven't gone back earlier than the F40. I love getting out of the F40/F50 and jumping into the 599 GTO/Speciale. Each Ferrari has its particular character and the mix of new with not-so-new is very compelling.

That said, the problem I fear we'll face in the future is the electronic parts for the modern supercars. If an ECU goes on a '90s car it's already a struggle to find a replacement/repair. I hope by the time the likes of the 599 GTO or TDF are nicely aged there will be a business somewhere making replacement electronics. Otherwise we're be looking at museum pieces

 

I worry about this, too, but I think the business opportunity will be too good for the need not to be met. It has to be easier to reflash ECU's and build black boxes than hand hammer sheetmetal for a 1950's Ferrari body? If Ferrari doesn't meet the need, hopefully some enterprising engineer will.

 

Fingers crossed!

 

I guess its all a mater of opinion. But... (ohh no here we go LOL)

How on earth could you not consider a 360 CS collectible. It was the start of the whole special edition V8 entry level car. It is more than a package. It is an incredibly incredibly specialized car. Most people who don't think its collectible do not actually understand the difference between a 360 and a CS. They are not even in the same league. Also with 350 or so american built cars how is it not collectible? Also, I think with the HUGE amount of 360s that were produced and such a ridiculously small sample of CS production I think it helps. More people have the expereience and are familiar with the car but the CS remains the unicorn. I guess its not that different than a 73 911 RS. No go ahead and tell me that car is not collectible. I don't mean this to come across as condecending etc... that is not my intent what so ever. Everyone is entitle to their own opinion etc... I just don't see how a 360cs is not collectible.

you are correct nothing goes up forever except what seems to be our national debt and for some weird reason the popularity of Kim Kardashian.

I think you are corolating value and appreciation with collectibility. They have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Things that became collectible due to appreciation are subject to correction yes. But... true collectibles... always have an intrinsic or intangible "value" or desire. As I said 1965 ford mustangs are indeed collectibles despite prices remaining relatively stagnet etc... It is still collectible. They are two totally different things.

I guess in a way we agree. You can't believe the hype that dealers blow. They argue that its a future collectible and will appreciate. But... this is the same guy who would sell you new muffler bearings or blinker fluid.

I have been consistent on the Porsche craze since day one. Its over hyped. The cars were undervalued and then we had what seemed to be either the same people or the same mentalities that were the ****ing morons who did mortgages and were "real estate investors" in the 2000s. They found a quick way to make a buck and absolutely smashed an entire segment of the market and pummeled it into the ground. Just like they did before. Yes... those people. It doesn't mean real estate is a bad investment.

 

Small correction here. The first one of those was the run of forty five 348 Challenge made for the North American market. This is documented in several places. Also, the factory documents refer to those cars as the 348 Challenge Stradale, as those with Matthias urban's book can tell you.

Anyways, back to what you were saying...

 

Lighten up, Francis.

 

I wrote these words in 2004 for the Ferrari Market Letter:

Will a Stradale become an instant collectible? I doubt it. A Stradale is still a production car that does not have the same status as, say, an Enzo. Besides, buying one of these cars only to have it sit in a garage collecting dust would be shameful. A Stradale is a driver’s car. I’d hate to see an ad in the Ferrari Market Letter ten years from now stating, “2004 Stradale, only 700 miles.” However, I do predict that, in 10-20-30 years, when a Stradale crosses the auction block, a ripple will flutter through the bidders. Everyone will know that a special car has just entered the arena.

So, there are a few years left to go. But, of all the loves, won and lost, I think back to the car I owned, (BTW, it's the 360 Challenge Stradale, not 360 CS), and kick myself. It was a flawed car. Neither street nor race car. Noisy as hell. All the F360 faults magnified. Probably the crappiest paint job in the world. Orange peel, you could see the undercoating, one weekend at the Ferrari French Quarter Classic and I had to have the front bumper resprayed at $1,000. But, I loved that car. Yes, loves, won and lost.

 

Who's Francis Rita?

 

i recall FoA had a 360CS in the basement i looked at.....

low miles...$118k...

nah, i think ill pass. who would want that ?

 

With the oversupply of "collector cars" on the market now all that's needed is a catalyst to bust prices down. If Trump wins and he imposes 40% import duties on China and other Countries that would be enough for the global marketplace to correct on classic cars, then we can see some bargains and fire sales.

But I could be wrong so those that disagree go out there are buy some of these cars.

 

Agreed! What a lot of people don't realise is how hard / time consuming it is to source good cars and also the bid offer.

Even without crossing the full spread I think 20% is a decent estimate of how much it would cost to sell a car and then buy it back again. Additionally in my experience a car always needs something doing to it when you buy it - sellers are rarely all over the maintenance in the last couple of years of ownership.

If I knew for sure the market was going to fall 50% in the next 2 years then I would sell some with a view to buying them back... but a 70% chance of falling 50% at some point (which I think is overly pessimistic but not outlandish), but even if I did concur with the probability - it just isn't enough motivation for me when I don't need the money. All the people I know who own similar cars - I don't think they need the money either - so what would be more likely to motive a sale would be a stagnant car market and something else seemingly much more exciting from an ownership and investment proposition.

 

The main problem with this is it is a crappy painting. The market for this group of artists was flippers and scammers. Still there has been a correction in the art market acrossed the board and the jewelry market. I am selling some high end diamonds that I had sitting around and I really should have sold them years ago when the market was better.

 

Actually what most people don't factor in is capital gains or other tax implications. When you factor in what you have to pay in cap gains tax plus the transactional costs to sell a car, it makes trying to time the market to sell high and buy low much less attractive and a bigger risk. You are usually better off with holding.

 

Jeff. 'If Trump wins'...here in Europe that would seem a nightmare scenario,but if so,and you say he is proposing a 40% import duty on foreign goods,I can not see how this will affect the classic car market. You have,in US, most of them,so importing is not required. The others are Right Hookers,so you dont want them. I (an ex motor trader) still believe that the classic car market in UK will remain boyant,yes,it has stalled somewhat in 2016,but some recent results are looking very possitive. We also believe that Great Britain PLC will be stronger out of Europe,so plenty of people will want to find a haven for their cash,...buy a Ferrari.!

 

Lol, scaremongering using the blonde man. Trump as an argument, really scrounging for arguments aren't we.