575 market & offer activity input please

Fellow Enthusiasts:

This board has been extremely educational for me over the last year. Thanks for all the regular posters and your input in all areas, from parts, to models, to markets.

I am in the process of divesting my business and realizing my life long dream of having a stable of horses.

One of my first targets is a 575M, possibly a SA or a Gated regular.

My question here is one of guidance. With my background, I am more than comfortable assessing a market and using all the information(so much!!) you all have been so great in providing - i.e. - all the factors involved in the value of a 575 such as the modular wheels, mileage, etc etc. However the 575 offered prices seem more "less consistent" and more varied than other models that have or are hitting their bottom curve, like an F430. I see what looks to me as some extremely high prices that in my opinion are based on one auction sale, like over 1 year ago.

I have been watching a slew of 575's sit on AT or dealer sites since beginning of 16, and little to no price movement down. I am also seeing the gated models priced in the $338k range, and those too are sitting. I have also followed the threads on auctions and results, and those too are not selling to high bidder, sometimes 30% less than the low estimate ($200k bid not selling when low estimate was over $300k for Gated, etc)

My question is in addition to your feedback on my market opinion, I am asking if in this world it is a waste of time or looked upon as a 'lowballer' if you are really looking at what things are selling for and offering something reasonable? Like I can't for the life of me figure out how a dealer puts up a 575M for sale for $150k and it's been on their site since January - while other 575's with similar 'statistics' are offered at $130k and STILL SIT there on the lot. (again, I do understand that some after PPI will require $15k or more in services immediately and that should be priced in).

My general commentary is that while this model is one of my real desires, it seems that it is one that is not the most inconsistent on prices and speculators are improperly advertising prices that are not even realistic w/ the buyers market.

In addition to this resource here, I also subscribe to the FML and have charted prices almost for over 12 months on my own....and since I have a goal of 3 F cars in the next 12/18 months (after 3/17 due to my divestiture), I am doing my best to not leave $30k on the table and take it from one of my other target's budget.

I also notice that for about 1 year now, the same exact SA's have sat at the same price this entire year (literally). The only one i have seen sell is the guy here on FChat that sold his dark grey one in like less than a week just a month or two ago! And he stated 'i'm not asking those outrages dealer prices'...SOLD.

One last comment on Gated - obviously this has been overrun by speculators. I have a theory on Gated (all not just 575's) and would like to know if any of you agree. I believe the gated is a 'want' by true enthusiasts that want to drive them, not look at them (me included). Therefore, the very passion that drove up that price, is the very passion that will keep people like me from spending an extra $200k ($339k instead of $139k for a 575) and driving the heck out of it. I don't believe many collectors that drive as i plan to will want to get a Gated to take pictures of it. So there is a line of diminishing returns if you are a seller pushing the envelope.

Thanks in advance for helping me to make sense of what I see as the most varied pricing niche in 'modern' F cars.

Long live the 12's, and may there always be a fair balance between computers and working up a sweat on sunday drives.

 

...

 

+1 !

 

Thanks MogulBoy - yes I agree and do approach my objectives with my previous post mentality. However with the 575's it's so all over the place sometimes one car looks the same quality-wise but it's $180k and another one is $125k. I don't know how to make the choice on anything other than color, all else being equal?

I think what may have been lost in my ramblings is that I'm not looking to buy something and hope it's worth X later - that's not my point. I guess I'm not sure how to approach a market that seems to have no starting point - I mean, I see cars (like the yellow 575M that has been for sale for some time in CA) that for no reason I can see are 50% more than others - same year, mostly same specs, seem same low $8k-$15k mileage. That car is $185k, and I don't see how such a limited market of Yellow makes that car the top of the Non-gated 575's. That, I guess, is what I'm trying to figure out.

Please do not read my post as me trying to make market predictions...just asking if you guys see this same niche as hardest to figure out and if although a car is worth what I or anyone else would pay for it, what about one that is like the Yellow I mention makes it worth $50k more than a Argento one?

Regardless of what level I decide to go for saving the $60k to put towards a 612 or 430(my other 2 targets) would certainly be helpful.

Thanks again for your comments. I feel like I can follow most other car's implied value, but this one (and my favorite, frankly and first aquisition most likely) has me scratching my bald head.

FV12

 

Ummmmm - no - nobody who is paying double for a gated has any intention of driving - the bubble perceives and is exploiting a rarity value since there are fewer - thats all

There might be a different argument for models with a slight premium one way or the other

For extended discussion see any number of gated vs f1 value threads here

At all price levels the V12s are and have historically been a hard sell with the slightest negative real or imagined causing a lengthy stick

 

Congratulations, first and foremost.

A few thoughts off the top of my head (which is struggling this AM )

1) I think the 575 market is interesting. As you've encountered, there is a fair amount of noise given the volatility and speculation in this general price range. It's obviously tied strongly to macro events, and therefore buyers and sellers are impacted by pricing changes. Some sellers who aren't as economically motivated may just end up keeping their cars, but others who are price sensitive (including some [certainly not all] dealers) MAY close out early with a pragmatic offer. As cars sit and prices soften, my guess is that this will drive a lower-quality supply in the market place in the next year or so (similar to #3 below re: 550).

2) Consistent with the general consensus, I agree that this section of the market is not white-hot. I'll always argue that the best of the best are always in demand, with exponential pricing across the axis of "quality," but having written that, I think the buyers have the power for anything less than the top 2% of supply, especially in regard to 575's (given the type of demand - typically buyers to drive, not to collect). So considering your collection imperative I think you're well positioned to define what's comfortable for you and try to capture a car that checks almost all your boxes at a number that isn't outrageously speculative.

3) As the collector car market heated up, F1 575's didn't garner the same demand as 550's, which shot a good bit ahead of 575's. That also priced manual 575's (somewhat irrationally, in my opinion) above most 550's. Now that the public 550 market is cycling into offering second-rate cars in combination with general market dynamics driving uncertainty, prices have stagnated and floated downward - and that puts direct compression on 575 demand. Of course there are data like the titanium 550 at Gooding (PB 2016) that did $280K that shows the spectrum of pricing which certainly doesn't pull prices down.

My thoughts in aggregate lead me to one question and one comment.

My comment is that I think you're best value at the intersection of driving and price is in an F1 575. Of all the cars you mentioned, that is likely the target with the largest bid-ask spread. That being said, it depends if you can enjoy F1, because it sounds like you'd convince yourself to go with F1 as a compromise - either by gaining incremental value in 575 coupe pricing or incremental exclusivity/open experience in a Superamerica, however you really would prefer a manual coupe, but current bid is too difficult to pinpoint. I could be wrong there. I think figuring our which is best for you also depends what other cars you're thinking about adding.

My question is, what about a 550?

The market is strong. No doubt about it. But it's dynamic and fluid, and it's entertaining to opine re: exact pricing, but the reality is this: in this range, you're likely not going make a ton or lose a ton in the long run, so the right car at a good price is going to pay dividends in experience. Absolutely more than being willing and able, but not buying one over a marginal deviation.

-Joe

 

Thanks so much for the great insights Joe.

All your observations are far more developed than my own and thats exactly the type of thing I could not put my finger on but was seeing some model specific (and interesting) oddities. All the special things attached to a front emgine V12 modern F ranges from emotional to mechanical to speculative moreso than others collectively I guess.

Yes, I felt that the most bang for my buck was the F1 575 and I could get my fix on a shifter in an 8 like an F430 and pay some premium on that one...

As for the 550 good question. - as most of my F knowledge is research based (i have been travelling a lot in the last year driving at events and tracks to learn what i like to drive)...and in that reaearch Ive been focused mostly on later builds in the model run in the manner that F continually made mods in a model life and all that reasoning etc. i realize the body same etc but also didnt think too much about it because also I had read that the M's in TR, 456,550 were important and done because really nexessary etc...so in answering I like the car just had been sort of guided to the newer more buttoned up version of the model or any other like 456 and how they actually stopped building them until the M etc.

I will certainly look more at the 550s as i agree I noticed a more consistently grouped market...

I will likely be participating in the market in the selling time of spring/summer next year but will consider moving earlier - however based on what I have watched, I am realizing that the F Cars Im viewing now may very well be the ones I will purchase and it would be nice to be confident in the inventory available.

I see a number of what look like great examples at F of BH/ all over california for 120 plus range that i was tryng to figure out what could be so much better in one that is 179k etc.

Thanks again for the comments they ate much appreciated.

 

I respectfully disagree, Jimmie. Someone forgot to tell me not to drive my gated 575 then! And others on this forum. To the extent that my kids always ask why we take the 575 and not one of the others (they like the 430 Spider = no roof).

I don't think that generalisation can hold. And I think the OP is right that they are real drivers' cars, which is what all the best collectors' cars start as being. (As an example, I don't think the Testa is so much of a driver's car.) You can drive a car that's going up in value, and I do.

 

Valid point regarding the end-of-run comment. They are indeed continually improved upon, however I think one has to consider the specific models in question to understand the true iterative impacts throughout a production run.

In terms of comparing 550 to 575, yes, many major improvements were made. Terry can comment more here, but to name a few places that the 575 was superior:
- suspension actuators are a weakness in 550s and require minor modification to be reconciled
- fuel pump caps
- coolant hoses
- cooling system in general
- rear suspension noises
- engine mounts
- ac pump
- other

That being said, none of these things systemically diminish the car in the sense that if you have a car afflicted with one or more of the above "weaknesses" they can be resolved and prevented in the future (unlike a Testarossa service needs, for example). At this point, it's likely that they have been tended to. It should also be noted that Ferrari improved the 550 massively throughout it's production (97-01 in the US), including electrical harnesses, cooling, and ecu modifications (Terry can confirm/refute that too).

On the other hand, you get a different car. Similar gorgeous looks, similar performance - but it's all nuanced and adds up to very material difference. The 575 motor is creamier, the car is generally smoother and more refined. With that, in my opinion comes with a slightly less visceral/connected experience. The 550 has a throttle cable rather than fly-by-wire. Old-school gauges. In general it feels more mechanical. Obviously manual vs F1 575 is the biggest experiential difference, and it's a game changer if you're even remotely a manual guy.

Some guys swear by F1 in their 575s. They love it; I can't get past it. It's too disconnecting in terms of my desire for a car to feel homogeneous. In my opinion, before buying an F1 575, you should spend some time getting to know a 599. Enzo motor (!), Superfast F1 box, outrageous performance, but still raw, engaging, and pre "video game" supercar era. Obviously you might get in an F1 575 and love it, which would be great. I have some, but relatively limited experience in F1 575s. Have spent a good bit of time in a manual 575. That said, in terms of modern V12s, I'm closest to 550 and 599.

Again, not sure what you're personal direction is, but from a financial perspective, I think 550 + 599 > 575 F1 + Manual 430.

Just a thought

 

Here's your F1 575m solution!

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/ferraris/533388-2002-575m-sale-f1-pozzi-blue-cuiuo-interior.html

 

Gorgeous.

 

I agree darius....i'm going down your path(and the op)....get more f-cars and spread your love between them.

 

Thanks Quicksilver and Themaven.

Great points and great details on the different V12's. I had been interested in the 599s and viewed that as a much more modern experience but have not driven or been in one. I have used the 2 clutch on the 458 and it's unreal. I'm not sure what the market doesn't like about that car, but I think it's really attractive with the right colors (and many are now less than 550's on AT).

To give you context, I'm 46 and was mid 20's when F returned to the front engine V12 (95) so I have some calling to a more 'connected' experience someplace between computers and analogue. I had a great time, for example, in the 458 and with it on a track - but truly enjoyed the less refined feel of the 430 (and it was gated). My background in the 80's(like many here I would think) was a bedroom wall with R & T covers all over it so I have a 'mechanical' pulling me back while I certainly appreciate the technology. That, I think, is why I'm drawn to cars from about 2000-2010 (+ 328's)for purchase, while I love all of them. I was not thinking of the 599 as a 'non video game car' but will investigate it further.

This information is incredibly helpful.

 

...here's the gated 575 I had no intention of driving to the country pub earlier this month! Sorry about appearing in the pic, it was taken by my small offspring who appears in all the other pix that day.
575 looks very svelte next to that white hatch.
(Front numberplate made a bid for freedom en route).
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I had to make a choice on the 550 or the 575 back in 2012, Things were cheap, looking back. But I chose the 550 because I wanted something will as little modern "Computer" stuff in the car, I was not convinced the F1 paddle in the 575 was magic. The car I chose was the 550, analog gauges , clutch, easy to fix,and according to the Ferrari Registry there are only 3 in this color in the US. and, 12 world wide. But again the color was not a huge factor back then.

The only F1 shift I am thinking about it a 458. I want the more modern in a late car. But down the road how hard , and expensive will it be to fix the 458. Certainly not a car that will rise in value. So to get that I would have to sell my 550, which should tread water, not really drop in value.

I hate to give up the clutch V12. That engine is amazing. But a friend of mine had owned a Daytona for 40 years, and enough parts to build 2 more he said. But he had a new 458 when they first came out. I said you sold you daytona, what do you think of the 458. What he said was shocking. "I feel really removed from the car, too much stuff, don't really like it".
I said " you have the cash to buy whatever you want, what do you do" he thought for a second and said "I would probably go back and buy a Ferrari 550". So in the end it comes down to the user. Most people are fine with the 575 F1 Shift. Others want a 308 GT4 for the really early experience of a Ferrari. It all depends on you. Are you buying it to drive, not loose value, or just building a group of cars. I found out this summer with 7 cars, I have a hard time driving them all. And especially the Ferrari need to be brought up to temp. they don't like to sit around. So if you have 3-4 Ferraris, you will have a favorite that you use the most. I would spend more time on finding the right car, buy one..... live with it a year, and see if you really want to back track to a V8 F430, I thought of that too. But, can't give up the V12 just yet. Love and Money.
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I think it's important to help out our fellow brethren with decisions like these. The 599 is definitely not a video game and has proven to be a tremendous compliment to the 550 without crossing the precipice.

Without a doubt, the 599 has loads more technology than the 550, but retains the connection and drama. It's not seamless like a 458 and doesn't really have adjust-ability of a new car via buttons - that is still commanded by your right foot. The manettino does modify shifts materially, but that's about it (unless you're dipping into the limits of adhesion). Shifts are not seamless, but they're deliberate and satisfying. A perfect balance between lazy/clunky (which it not even remotely close to) and "I think it shifted because I heard the engine change speed."

The 599 has a manic engine. It's bombastic, outrageously powerful, and free-revving. It's a magnificent, tremendous accomplishment. Experiencing it is something special. The fiery nature of the engine also lends itself to the F1 transmission; I really enjoy it in the 599 and often think a manual wouldn't be as homogeneous (re: 575 F1), as much as I prefer manuals.

The 599 also handles amazingly well given it's weight and GT mission - it's not a Cayman or 430, but it hasn't once left me unsatisfied. Yet it retains the flagship front engined berlinetta romance, unlike a 430, for example.

It is always engaging and communicative. It's also the last of the era, and retains the human artistic philosophy of Ferrari production rather than the leaning heavily on technology as the experience (instead, it's buried deep in the 599 and doesn't really expose itself), coefficient of drag didn't drive design, and global manufacturer regulations didn't have a huge role at that point.

Starting to understand where you're coming from in terms of emotional connection and what excites you - and I think you should drive a 599. It's a different experience compared to contemporary V8's as well as 550/575. The V8's are still fun and always have their place (I love them and would do unforgivable things for a Stradale), but a 550 is a modern-yet-classic manual V12 experience that can not be replicated again and the 599 is a major, major performer with tremendous pedigree that delivers a frenetic experience or GT role on demand.

550 + 430; 575 + 430; 550 + 599. Can't really go wrong either way, but my reaction is that you should broaden your consideration and test them all (including 550 and 599) before committing. And enjoy the journey!

-Joe

 

Also want to note that my thoughts also synthesize the general pricing similarities between the different combinations.
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Not being argumentative, but did you recently buy it for $300,000 range?

(I happen to suspect the same as that poster, that the recent buyers of many of the bubble priced cars are not going to drive them much. Heck, the vast majority of ferrari buyers at any price point barely drive their cars.)

 

I have almost 46,000 miles on the 550. Drove the 599, and at the time, it did not make me hunger for one. Usually you drive a car that is much newer, and you are like "Man, this is next on the ladder." But ...... I know...... strange, but it just felt ....... well a bit strange. But it is a heck of a value in the V12 market, that is the only things that makes me rethink it a bit. Once use to the V12 , hard to drop back down to a V8.

So in a sense I am in the same boat. Thinking of a 458, everyone has them, and thousands were made, but Technology in Ferrari is always fun. I do like having a timing chain.

you can't go wrong with getting the best 599 you can find. You will forget the manual soon enough. I live in the mountains , and about 70 miles from the Tail of the Dragon. 318 curves in 11 miles. I don't have to fight the clutch 550 in traffic, but if I lived in the city, I just would never have another 3 pedal.

Let us know what you decide. They will all make you smile. There is just not best answer. Try them all and you will know. Don't let money get in the way, pick a budget, then find the car.

 

OP - Sadly (imho and based on obvious observations) there is no formula for this market at the moment. Prices (both asking and the rare actual sale transaction) are all over the place because we are in the aftermath of a rapid run-up in prices. Many cars have "come on the market" over the past 12 months as owners see the higher prices and list their cars at what can be called "aspirational" asking prices. (to be clear, I'm not singling out the 550/575 markets, this is happening for many exotics and sports cars at the moment).

By way of comparison, when I first shopped for a 550/575 back in 2012, the market was far more predicable. The vast majority of 550s had asking prices clustered around $80k and the vast majority of 575s had asking prices clustered around $100k. Some lower, a few higher. It was pretty easy to see what to bid to buy one. Nowadays, it near impossible. While owners don't want to read it, prices are coming down at the moment. Where they go tomorrow and beyond is beyond Yogi Berra (and me).

 

Good perspective, it's all subjective - and there's no wrong answer. My context here is 550, 575, 599, 430 and our OP is picking two.

If one is manual and one is F1, my preference would be 550 + 599.
If both are manual, then 550 + 430 (599 is out the price-range).
If both are F1, then 430 + 599

In terms of performance, complimentary cars, value, history/pedigree/lineage, long-term enjoyment and connection, exclusivity, and pride of ownership I think the 550 + 599 package delivers the highest benchmark.

This is a fun thought exercise, regardless. The beauty of a forum. Different perspectives to help frame up different philosophies.

-Joe

 

Arizona / Patek / QS Joe thanks for more great feedback. LOVE THE PICTURES!!

Joe - If i were to try to have a conversation on that level the people I know would think I'm from mars. Everything you comment on are the pieces and parts of why I want - straight out of the gate of a long time working really hard - to be a part of and experience = and have been building up to in the last year.

A couple more pieces of the puzzle and how a 430 comes into play -

I live in Dublin, OH - very close to Mid Ohio. My significant other has also caught the bug after accompanying me on some experiences - and she has her own funds which contributes to our budget. We raise 3 kids together(interest in 612's...love them) and we are planning on a lot of time at Mid Ohio taking instruction and playing next summer and beyond. Hence, the 430. Yes, I know I will be going back and forth on a 2015 Cayman GTS and full service coverage and probably better to drive there and back...and may still do that, but the 430 is probably coming either way for track nights at MO. (or a 458)

For the street I'm more in line w/ the 12's of all sorts and the comments on the 599 are right on (and i'm sure will be fun on track night)- I will begin to try to try that in the coming months and down south if need be over the winter. Great direction and advice. One additional important piece - as we become acclimated to the car life - going for a 599 vs. earlier models would be a better in concept - i assume - ownership experience with less little things to deal with. That will only advance my hobby on the front side - a less challenging service experience. The prices are almost lower now than 550's.

On the down side, we will drive her cute white jeep much less (her fun car) but now I won't be the guy that works all the time in the family that DOESN'T have a fun car in the family. 2 of the kids are my daughters, and they make fun of that regularly.

Ohhhhh....are they gonna get a wake up call!

 

No I didn't.

I know what you mean, but I know plenty of owners of multimillion dollar Ferraris who drive them like stink when they get the chance. I guess some gated 575 buyers fall into that category, and others into the store--and--forget. Like lots of more expensive/classic Ferraris.

 

Looking at it another way. If you live in a city in a northern clime and have to work, and have to travel for the job, and have kids who preclude spontaneous drives, that limits your potential Classic/enjoyment car driving days to just a handful a year. If you have more than one car, they need to be spread out over those days.
So you can be a passionate enthusiast and yet only drive a particular car a few days or a few hundred miles a year - or less - not for want of wishing to....
So while it much be correct to say many Ferrari owners hardly drive them (has to be the case looking at mileages) I think the number of pure speculators, who ring a dealership having done some numbers, and get their people to pick up and store a car and then try and sell on a year or three later, is actually quite low, even for the 'hot' cars like the manual 575s. Maybe people trying to sell them now for 300k dollars are speculators, maybe in five years time wealthy real drivers will be buying them for Daytona prices.

 

I think the first thing you need to do is to make the fundamental decision between a manual gearbox and an F1.

If you come down on the side of an F1, then that's it, decision made.

If you say "manual", then you need to make the choice between 550 and 575. Given your comments earlier about keeping cash in reserve for your next two purchases, then it makes sense to go for the 550 at about two thirds the price of a 575. The price differential between them is mainly down to rarity of 575 manuals (most 575s were F1s), rather than the improved spec of the 575 over the 550, which is not a lot in reality (and some of us actually prefer 550s anyway - for reasons, see above).

Then its going to be a case of price vs. mileage. As you intend to put some miles on your car, there is little point in paying an inflated price for an ultra-low miler, so best go for something with a few miles under its belt. So long as it's been properly serviced etc., it is unlikely to give you any more trouble than a very low mileage car that is suffering from lack of use, but will cost you a lot more to buy.

Asking prices are indeed all over the shop just now. It will be a while before a pattern emerges, but the general consensus is that they are softening, so the difference in asking prices just now is between those sellers who are being realistic / want to sell and the more "aspirational" sellers, who may still be owning their cars for a while yet (and putting it with a dealer saves on storage costs!).

Take your time. Few cars are going to go in a hurry, unless they really are "priced to sell". When you find a car you like, don't be afraid to make what seems like an insulting offer - it may well be accepted! And if it isn't, you can always look elsewhere while you are waiting for the seller to change his mind - you may find a better one / more realistic vendor.

When you have done the deal, get a PPI, to make sure it is as good as it looks.

Happy hunting!