is the bubble due to burst?

words of wisdom right here.

 

I don't think real cars are goners. But, compared to spending trillions on mass transit, autonomous cars using existing roads look pretty good.

 

The only Ferrari market I follow closely are Boxers......they are down for sure, but less than 30%.

The rare variant Diablo market (SE, SV, Roadster, ALL-99 and later cars) are not down at all....holding steady.

 

well maybe someone can point out the models that are down 30 percent? I'd like to buy one

 

You might like to buy more than one!

 

i recently purchased a red /black 550 . I paid a good amount but did get a good discount from asking price. The fun factor (driving it ) is off the charts! My point is if it goes up or down i am ok , of course i hope it goes up

 

It's not necessarily what's "down" 30%. You may never see realized prices.

What's important is what is actually selling, and at what price.

Any shmuck can have a 512TR or Testarossa online for the last 1.5 years, and STILL own that car, and if you peruse Hemmings, eBay, etc. you'll see, many "new" dealers jumped in during the rise, and bought what was rising quickly to the masses, 246's, TR's, Testarossa's, 550M, stick 360's, etc. The realistic guys sold with a nice margin, but weren't trying to completely hammer prices up, nope, those guys still own those cars, and to the newbies that jumped in and bought 5-6, on loan...That's a terrible position to be in.

Again, 288, F40, F50, Enzo, Aperta's, special cars will hold great prices...If you really want to buy at 30% "down" all you have to do is find the model you like that's been owned/advertised for the last year, and make a realistic cash offer, wellllllll below their "number", I'll bet you money you get the car.

Quick C&P, offered $285K on a nice 246GT Summer 2015...He passed. He called and asked for that price this past August. I said no, not willing to go anywhere close to that, I'm at $235K now, and I don't really even want to be there, and he's still saying "No, no, no..."

I'll leave it at this, Trenery wasn't wrong in stating that "at auction time, sellers are usually remorseful and wishing they hadn't sold at that price, but then 6 months down the road, most are happy they did..." (not a direct quote, but the gist etc). It's just a matter of when you want to jump off the train

 

ok so nothing is actually down 30%?

 

Boxerman says he has collected extensive data that says the entire market is down "25% and dropping." That's pretty close to 30%. Of course, I haven't seen anything that suggests more than a 5% drop at most (which is well within the realm of any normal year) but I'm looking at compiled K500 and HAGI data and not whatever special data he says he's collected. Maybe he will share it here.

EDIT: Here are the quotes:

 

It could happen but it will take a long time and I think people who like sports cars wont be going away. We might have to take it to the track or other dedicated driving venues though. I think it might become more like people who enjoy equestrian activities these days. Theres still a strong market there- just more specialized. I do not think Ferraris do poorly in this scenario. The bottom end probably loses though.

 

I think it will be a VERY long time before ICE engines will be outlawed -
It will take at least 20 years to get the infrastructure in place to even consider beginning that process.

 

so where we're perfect mint condition non chair and flair 246 gtb? 380/400k at the top? is a like for like mint perfect car 280k today?

 

Guy on this site is selling one for an ask of 329k. Just from the pics looks far from mint, at least on the one pic of the underside.

Problem with Dinos is they really need to be looked at very closely to make sure they are solid. Lots of rust; usually not visable. So low end probably 250k top restos probably near 400k. Jons cars another level. JMO. I did look at dinos for 6 months back in 1999 and those which were not treated to lots of work are worse than when I saw them years ago and there were plenty of rats.

 

Wrong thread

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

Nvrm. I misunderstood. Yes I think that pegged the market at the height. Now, not so much, closer to the $280 fig

 

Things would have to sell to really tell, most people have their cars sitting listed for months because they want last years prices. F355s and TRs down 20% for sure. Just search the classifieds on this site.

 

Top of the market was end of last summer 2015. Monterey. The hysteria was rocking and rolling.

 

you're a year late. The top of the market was Monterey 2014. When this all shakes out, that will be the date of the peak of the market as an overall picture. What went up after that were the outliers.

 

Exactly!

But they are starting to represent some real deals! People need to start buying at these levels. Maybe just need sellers to also recognize?

I may even be able to afford something nice soon. I will wait a bit longer given all the no sales.

 

These are almost all Driver Source inventory that they've had on the market. No one rushing to Mecum for them. Easy way for DS to get exposure on the cars close to home.

 

+1 Rob. Currently, there are large gaps between retail ask and wholesale on some high end cars like CGT's. I'm waiting for the dead cat bounce before I start buying again.

 

So DS had tons of exposure, on lots of cars they've owned for a long time with no success in selling. And the bid went on, on all of them...I would say that is directly correlated to a WIDE gap in expectation, realistic pricing and actual sale price, leading to a car actually being sold to a new owner.

If they couldn't do it with all those eyes, they'll smell the blood soon and realize it makes sense to sell now and don't cry harder later.

 

what's a sub 5k mile Enzo gonna cost me today?

 

Nice username