488 Pista - qualifying demands

Wldnt you guys be better off spending the energy and dollars buying an f40 or f50 etc....

 

Sorry, but can you point me to these filings?

I can only find this in their most recent Annual Report (lots of guidance on how China market could be problematic)

http://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/ferrari15ipo/files/annual_report_2017_eng.pdf

...

Other governments around the world, such as those in Canada, South Korea, China and certain Middle
Eastern c countries are also creating new policies to address these issues which could be even more stringent than
the U.S. or European requirements. As in the United States and Europe, these government policies if applied to
us could significantly affect our product development plans. In China, for example, Stage IV fuel consumption
regulation targets a national average fuel consumption of 5.0L/100km by 2020.

In response to severe air quality issues in Beijing and other major Chinese cities, in 2016 the Chinese
government published a more stringent emissions program (National 6), providing two different levels of
stringency effective starting from 2020. Moreover autonomous Chinese regions and municipalities are allowed
to implement these more stringent requirements in advance of 2020. If local Chinese regions and municipalities
implement such requirements before 2020 this could lead us to revise our product development and production
plans in China, incur significant costs and change marketing strategies in China, which may affect our profits.

...

In September 2017 the Chinese government issued the Administrative Measures on CAFC (Corporate
Average Fuel Consumption) and NEV (New Energy Vehicle) Credits. This regulation establishes mandatory CAFC
requirements, while providing additional flexibilities for SVMs (less than 2,000 units/year imported in China)
that achieve a certain minimum CAFC yearly improvement rate. Because our CAFC is expected to exceed the
regulatory ceiling, we will be required to purchase NEV credits. There is no assurance that an adequate market
for NEV credits will develop in China and if we are not able to secure sufficient NEV credits this may adversely
affect our business in China.

 

I listened to the capital markets presentation twice, and I didn't infer it that way either. What was said, is that a majority of the future growth would be in the Asian market, and very little increase in supply to north america. At no point, did I hear nor infer there would be reduced supply to NA. They did say the Asian market wasn't really interested in their sports cars/hyper series, but the SUV and GT cars, which I thought was interesting, but makes sense from a practicality stand point.

 

Per the same Annual Report, APAC market is growing, that makes sense..but not China, in fact the entire China market could disappear by 2020 except for pure electrics

 

China etc is what I said, right? You guys are clearly operating at a higher level than me when it comes to RACE. The point I was trying to make (perhaps poorly) is that the global demand for Ferrari's is increasing at a rate that is far beyond their ability to supply. If they have demand for SUVs they will naturally want to move production capacity to SUVs. Thus, the new Ferrari SUV. This will result in fewer sports car production. Unless of course, they increase their ability to make more cars which they have stated will go from 8k to 10k over the next few years (ideally). With 10k vehicles being created and a great deal being SUVs and Lussos (to meet the market demand) this will result in fewer sports cars. THUS, they can raise prices on sports cars...

 

We shall see how this all plays out, but if their demand is that strong, then why do Lussos and Portofinos depreciate like rocks? With the increase in interest rates, such luxury spending at this level will certainly be impacted even further. Production capacity will not be "shifted" to SUVs, but in fact "created", so the additional room will be made due to this increase (10K annual production from 8K). Just like how they shifted some Portofino production to the V12 assembly line, just like ALL Lussos.

No, the world is not falling apart for Ferrari, they will still do fine.

About your long game comment, I wholeheartedly agree. I think where many folks got irritated is because they have had multiple transactions with the same dealer and still getting the Lusso talk accompanied with dealer marketing BS. Regardless, there are people in this world with big money to burn, so dealers are gladly helping. Just don't assume others are willing to play ball.

Your limited production justification was hilarious, along with the ensuing responses.

 

If anyone is interested in Ferrari's as an investment, they are really looking in the wrong place for getting a return (unless you are investing in RACE). The folks that have the LE cars, they don't necessarily buy them as any investment; they have enough money to buy a LaFerrari, and oh, by the way, they can sell those cars at a higher price later. But trust me when I say that making that $1M or $500k out of a Ferrari is not the reason they bought the car for. $2M put in Amazon 5 years ago would have been a better and less riskier investment than buying a LaFerrari. I am buying a Pista because I want the car and I really like it. If I sell it and lose $100k, then be it. You buy a BMW or Mercedes for $150k, the next year is worth less than $80k! I really don't see the point of arguing about whether a Pista is worth or not. It's worth to me and it definitely is not an investment. I fully expect to lose money on it. If you get an allocation and you like the car and you have the $$; just buy, enjoy, and keep or sell, as you wish. Don't buy to make money out of it. Simple.

 

Dealers don’t make any more money out of Lusso v an 812, Pista etc. The reason they need to sell them is because Ferrari ask them to and they give allocations accordingly. Lusso is by far the lowest production Ferrari (around 500pa v 812 at 1,500pa) but the market is also much smaller. Took me nearly three years to get a Lusso, car was delayed for over a year, which I was not happy about because the UK could not get supply. Depreciation so far is much better than FF. As for Portofino, there is only one car for sale in our market, has 400 miles on it, being sold over list through an independent. The car is sold out for well over a year ahead. The best comparator to how well the car will do in the future is Cali T and even Cali before it. These have performed amazingly well in terms of residuals. I personally don’t quite know why. I had a lightly used original Cali for two years and lost virtually nothing on it. And the subsequent owners would have done just as well. When we are talking about global demand, we should not just consider one market. Perhaps the UK is managed better than the US but it does coincide with Ferrari’s story that global demand is strong and can absorb the increase from 8k to 10k units, especially when the new SUV arrives. In the end, we all make our own decisions about that - it will certainly affect how expensive in terms of depreciation it will be to own a Ferrari. For me, I am happy that the way they manage the market that I buy in will ensure the depreciation experience is affordable/justifiable. That’s all I have to know.

Kevin’s post above makes a whole lot of sense to me though.

 

In our little city, It's about 2.3 million people in the population.
The dealer has told me that they have 22 customers have the allocation for the Pista.
It's just a game to ask ppl to buy a regular 488 to get Pista.
Now, 488's seems to be flooding in the used car market because of the new Pista owners. Some of them even at the same price as the regular 458's.

 

It is convenient to live in a bubble where Lusso (especially when we own one) is depreciation-resistant but when you look at the facts, that bubble bursts real quick. Take the Lusso in the UK. It's a major market and usually receives about 10% of production. Since deliveries finally started in 2017Q2, that would be 75 cars based on your 500/year production. You go to the autotrader UK website, and there are currently 36 Lusso's listed. Many are highly optioned, with asking prices for 1-2k mile cars starting well below the base list price of £240k for the V12. Typically these car will have at least 15% in options, and the dealer will take out another 10%+ on the sale. So, you are looking at a 25-30% drop straightaway if you sell. And that's just based on asking prices, and we all know asking ain't getting. The fact that approx 50% of the UK delivered Lussos are for sale tells you a lot. That many of these cars are offered by official dealers and have been sitting for months tells you even more. Most likely reason is they were ordered to enable an allocation for a hard to get F-car.

This is a pretty good indicator of Lusso depreciation.

 

Your experience in England is clearly different than mine in the US. I visited the Ferrari dealership here in Austin for two years before buying a car and all they ever had to offer was over priced used cars so I demurred. I really liked the Cali T and one day I walked in and they had a new, untitled HS model configured exactly as I would have done it and in a color scheme I liked. I bought the car for MSRP and was assured I could have an allocation for a 488 Spider which was the car I really wanted. I got the new owner treatment and liked the car so much that I didn't place an order for the Spider, that was in March 2017. I kept shopping the 488 Spider and other Ferraris at other dealerships and instead of taking a 488 allocation and waiting, I ended up getting a new 2018 straw buyer car with 105 miles on it from Tampa. I did however lose $65k on my Cali T HS and I note they still haven't sold it. I could probably buy it back for what I got in trade so I did well on that end of it.

As to the 488 Spider purchase, the car cost me $10k over MSRP so I paid only a small premium for my "impatience" and of course I didn't get to spec the car but I really wasn't that interested in the process or waiting. I would still be waiting if I had ordered. I prefer to shop while I wait and see if something I really like comes along and in the Ferrari case, it has both times. So while I would like a Pista Spider, I don't think my phone will ring with an allocation. My wife does want a Portofino and if I could leverage an order on one of those for something early in the next model of sports car then maybe I will but in the meantime I will wait and watch for a good deal on an unwanted Pista Spider or maybe a Sepciale Aperta.

My neighbor who regularly plays the game with the dealership here in Austin told me that I didn't have a real Ferrari when I got my Cali T HS. He had just taken delivery of a new 2017 488 GTB but when I got my 2017 Cali T HS. This past May he was shocked to see I had a 2018 488 Spider before he did. The one he got a week after I did was one that someone didn't take from the local dealer and he had to lose $20k on his 488 to get it. So the buy a new one every year and trade the old one in for the newest thing with no loss isn't working any longer and it's not keeping people like me from getting a straw buyer car in front of a long time customer. I just got mine from a different dealer.

Based on my own experience in avoiding the dealer game, I don't believe the Pista and Pista Spider will retain the "exclusivity" that is being used for the allocation process. It's one thing to make it hard to get an allocation but it's altogether another to keep people from dumping the car in six months for the next latest and greatest. There are too many latest and greatest new models announced in the Ferrari lineup to sustain that exclusivity if you ask me. In the meantime I am shopping other marques and enjoying my 488 Spider, it's a terrific car. In addition, based on my depreciation experience with the Cali T, I will not be surprised to take a bath on the 488 Spider when I trade it off.

 

ferrari is going down the same road has harley davidson. not a surprise

 

If, as many claim, Ferrari has a limited capacity to manufacture cars, why use up this limited supply to produce cars of limited appeal like the Lusso and Portofino when they could build more of the most sought after models like Pista, 812 etc.

 

cuz there is a market who will buy some portos and lusso AND they can force the serious guys to buy both - so they sell more in total

 

According to my salesguy the Portofino is wildly popular. He says they already have 19 pre-sold, assuming that means on order.

 

yeh sure thats why they do so well in the secondary market. you do realize your salesguys pay their mortgages by selling ferraris right? believing a car salesman is like believing a stripper. they get paid to tell you what you want to hear!

 

So far I haven't seen any Portofinos for sale in the secondary market.

 

That's because they are just starting to hit. Give it 6 months...

 

I know that but the poster I was responding to doesn't seem to.

 

are you implying i dont understand the ferrari market? thats bold.
they will htt and you can look at calis to understand what path portos will take, just as you can look at FFs to understand what path lussos are taking.
and btw why dont you ask the salesman how many of those 19 are live due to pista or other car allocations?

 

You are making a statement about a car with no data.

 

Ive made my living doing that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Good for you, I am agnostic about this. I am not playing the dealer game but I am interested in buying a car I like at a price that is acceptable to me. I am not in the market for a Portofino but Ferrari is taking it's time getting them out to buyers as though they are special. I will be interested to see if the market is flooded with Portofinos in six months. My bet is that it's at least a year from now before there is any significant number of them up for resale.

 

it cld be 12 or 18 months. 6 months is what they ask you to keep the car for when you buy something that is being purchased for ability to buy a tougher to get car. whether its 6 or 18 months doesn't matter much. if you are gonna buy a porto or lusso your best off buying it as soon as the first one comes out and selling after 6 or 12 months. my 2017 cali t that had a 250k sticker struggled to go for 190k 6 months (and no miles) after i got it. my 2012 ff which i bought for my Laf allocation (that never came) had a 380k sticker and is prob worth 110K today. First world probs.

 

The Cali and its successor the Portofino are viewed, rightly or wrongly, by Ferrari enthusiasts as the soft core, fluffy model for wives of 488 and 812 owners and appeals to the less than serious adherents to the company's heritage.