What Is The Next Ferrari Model To Jump In Value?

It's called evolution.

 

My guess is that the early F1 cars won't become collectors items, after all who collects the even earlier Mondial valeos? The technology just moves on and the "first of" isn't much of an attraction.

As for the 512M the limited production numbers are already reflected in the substantial premium over the 512TR. Would I pay that for a unholy mess of a design that it represents? Definitely not, but others might.

 

I was never a fan of the Testarossa because I thought the Berlinetta Boxers were so much more beautiful. Still do.

 

I agree on the 512M...awful looking.
Was the Mondial valeos a F1 Motorsports derived system ? If not, I see that as different to the monumental breakthrough the first F1 system in the road cars represented

 

I still don't think any of the single clutch F1 cars will become collectable because they were first with a paddle shift. The DCT's are so far superior that F1's seem clunky and primitive to a lot of people. It's not like the difference between paddles and a stick. I know there are some who like the rawness of F1 cars, especially the Challenge and Scud, but I'm betting they are in the minority.

I would rather have a 458 than either a Challenge or a Scud. But I'd rather have my 360 stick than a 458, excepting the Speciale.

 

I have 2 stick and 2 F1 cars ( one being a CS). I can assure anyone out there the CS is anything but “clunky” when driven properly. It does take skill though. Unlike a DTC.

 

I still don't think they will be worth anything more because they are single clutch paddle shift cars, and they most certainly are clunky in automatic mode.

The F1 was an immature technology that lead to the DCT. The DCT was where the paddle shift technology came together.

 

Who would ever drive a Ferrari in automatic mode ?

 

F1 to DCT is like non-synchro gears to synchronized gears to me. Or like mechanical fuel injection to electronic fuel injection. Don't really see a premium for any of those in the general auto market. F1 on a track or racing car is fine but otherwise it's clunky and not very reliable. I also doubt they'll command a premium someday.

The biggest issue though is self driving and electric cars, that will affect values more than anything else.

 

I would while touring. Especially in unfamiliar towns and cities.

BTW, I just went through the current 360's for sale. Challenge cars are at the top, but that's because they're Challenge cars, not because they have F1 transmissions. The second tier, price wise, are the manual spiders, because there's a bump for being a spider AND a bump for being manuals. Then there are the manual Modena Berlinettas, because they're manuals. Then the F1 spiders, and finally the F1 coupes. I don't think that is going to change.

 

The automtive world is changing, and fast. We a quickly seeing a shift in what will be allowed on the roads as a legal car to drive.

There is talk of making pre emissions cars illegal to operate without a yearly permit and with milage stipulations. No driving within city limits.

With self driving cars becoming closer to reality, manually driven cars will be banished from the streets due to safety concerns except in rural areas.

With big companies like Audi, Volvo, Mercedes, Porsche even Ferrari, all making the shift to electric, and countries following suite, the enthusiast car market is on it's way out. I know I will be called a doomsdayer, but unfortunately it's a faster then you think approaching reality.

We all should feel so lucky we have been able to experiance cars as they were, and are now. Many will never have that experiance.

 

No, it's not clunky nor is it unreliable. I've owned one for 6 years so I speak from actual experience. Sadly, what gives the car a bad name is people making comments with no experience to make them. And, they do command a premium as a few record sales are 355 F1's

 

You are correct, F1 transmissions are super smooth and super reliable.

 

I've never seen this, but I never look at 355 prices. I'd appreciate some independent data. A link perhaps.

And F1 transmissions are so reliable that there are scads of threads in the 360/430 forum about problems with them. One Ferrari mechanic told me flat out not to buy one (A 360 F1).

The actuator is over $10K if it has to be replaced, and I know of once case just here locally.

 

At least in Europe, it's the opposite, with manuals trading at a premium over F1s. And that despite more F1s than manuals produced.

 

I will admit i didn't read through the entirety of the 14 pages of this thread, so my apologies if I'm repeating what others have said. Having said that:

Recent V12 manuals: The 599 was the last manual option V12. They've already shot up in price, but there may be room for growth still. The 550 & 575 may have some room for growth as well (as manuals) as they were produced in slightly larger volumes, they are currently relatively low price. I speculate they will go up from there.

Recent V8 manuals: The last manual V8 was the California (total production of 2-3 i believe) they are already selling for ~$700,000 +. Having said that, the California isn't perceived as a "on it's toes Ferrari" since it's not rear mid-engined. The F430 currently has about 5-6% of total production being manuals (5.4% of current U.S 2nd hand market cars listed on sale are Manuals). They are demanding a $60,000 premium over F1 F430s, set at $170,000 average (coupes) and $225,000 (spider). Still can go up from there. For the 360's. Manual production numbers were closer to 22-25% (currently 22% of coupes and 25.3% of spiders on sale in the US are manuals). The average list price is ~$20,000 over paddle shift models. They are relatively bargains. Avg price is $115,000-$125,000 (Coupes and Spiders respectively). People may shy away from them now due to the more demanding servicing, however once the F430 shoots up (1st) the 360 manuals will start going up too.

I can share the graphs i've made for this. Been watching the market on 360 on-wards V8s and 599 on-wards V12s since late 2015

 

I'm sorry George but the sales have been private and the owners are my clients who do not wish for public details.

The system is more complex than a manual, pure mechanical system so by that nature it will have more issues. There are however, plenty F1's that run like a Swiss watch and I own one. Sadly, many of these systems are worked on by folks that don't have the knowledge and tools so many get screwed up.

 

Actuators repaired for 3,500 these days. DTC 30k to replace. Take your pick.

 

To the F1s credit, you can replace various components, not the whole system like is required on a DCT pretty much. The big ticket items are the actuator and the pump; the sensors are much cheaper. On the DCT I believe the whole unit is replaced. That's still more expensive to fix than an F1 but I'm willing to bet the failure rate of single clutch transmissions is much higher than DCTs.

 

The "pump" rarely fails, it's the pump (electric) motor. Now several low cost options are on the market.

 

Then pardon me if I reserve judgement. Again, in every line I watch, F1's are valued less than manuals. I don't believe that's going to change.

Get back to me with some hard data to contradict my most logical position.

 

I certainly understand that you might not believe me and that's fine as it really does not matter. You can believe this or not, but many buyers like private sales and many collectors are not on Fchat posting. You would be surprised the amount of Ferrari owners not on Fchat. We do business with clients worldwide and I do have data, I wish I could share it, but I'm not at liberty.