The 15 New Models by 2022 - What We Know

This topic of how cars are allocated almost needs its own thread because we can drill down on it in so many layers. In addition to my previous guidance on this subject in recent posts I will add these...

A good way to think about it from an allocation stack perspective is that there are 4 categories of Ferrari cars:

1. Moderate demand regular production ( i.e. front engine models )
2. Very high demand regular production ( i.e. mid-engine models )
3. Limited edition production VS ( special limited production track focused version of regular production series car )
4. Limited edition numbered production ICONA

The moderate demand category is how unestablished buyers get their foot in the door and how even established clients move up the ranks with follow-on purchases to whatever other F car is sitting in their garage now. First time buyer of factory new car? These are the ones you can realistically get. You start with a front engine car.

The mid engine models are always always always in high demand even if they are regular ole production cars that are cranked out like gnocchi in unlimited quantities as far as the eye can see. Why are they ALWAYS tough to get? Because they look like flipping race cars. Because when I say the word Ferrari you picture a mid-engine car if you're honest with yourself. It's the archetype. It's the icon. It's the true exotic car we all dreamt about as kids. Nobody hangs a poster of a Portofino on their wall. Have you noticed for example that Lamborghini and Maclaren... mid-engine race-car looking cars... that's all they sell.

And here's the thing ... and this is really important ... all of this comes down to math. With category 1 ... you got a check ? You're getting one of those even if you just walked in off the street. You got the money you got the car. No problem. Everything else ... all three of the categories ... even category 2 and you're doing a dance. Like it or not that's how it works. Because starting with category 2. and rising exponentially in intensity through 3. and 4. it becomes a tournament where everyone can't win and many have to lose because their ain't enough of those to go around to all the already established customers of the dealership who want one.

It's all about the math. Always.

Ferrari sells around 10,000 cars a year currently and that's for the entire world.

Let's look at say 2017 and say it breaks down using very broad numbers like this

Mid-Engine
Around 2,500 488 GTB
Around 2,500 488 Spider

Front Engine
Around 1,000 F 12
Around 1,000 FF
Around 3,000 California T

As you can see whilst production of the mid-engine car that everyone lusts after is technically unlimited ... if you've been to the Ferrari factory and seen the assembly lines it's surprisingly small ... you're talking about a minuscule number of mid-engine cars to satisfy the world's elite just 5,000 cars a year ... for the entire planet. A planet with over 30-million multi-millionaires.
Outside of the US a large European country can expect 5% of global production allocated to them but that's only 250 mid-engine cars, just 125 coupes and 125 convertibles. For an entire country. Double those numbers and it's still minuscule. And those are for cars they will make 20,000 of in total @ 5,000 a year for 4 years of a model's lifecycle. VS cars even without limited number production you're still only looking at 1,200 or so per year for 2 years so maybe a 2,500 car total production run for the entire planet. And everyone wants those even more because they look even more like race cars! For limited number special editions like the TDF or the Iconas you're looking at a only some hundreds of cars that will ever get made and that is for the entire globe. You can imagine how daunting the math is on those at 6% allocation per country.

So even if a car is regular production ... what does it matter if you can't get one?

Say you're a new customer. Ferrari comes out with this stupendous mid-engine car. You go down to the dealer, you're all excited. Youre chatting up the salesman. You're picking out your colors. And then what happens? Months go by. Years. Maybe you will get one in 3 years. Or maybe not at all. Because maybe that dealer has so many orders from already established customers that it takes him 4 years to take care of all those people first, his long time customers who've been feeding his family before you even came along. And then ... how many times have you heard this story... they will try to 'convert' your order into the replacement of the car you originally wanted. And that's how you can get effectively shut out of even an open ended unlimited regular production car. Because with Ferrari there is no such thing as unlimited production. The number of cars they can produce of even their regular production mid-engine cars is tiny compared to its demand around the globe.

And none of this is the dealers fault or Ferrari's fault. You can't blame them. It's just the most real world imbalance of supply and demand that exists in the entire business world. Half of what these guys do is try to manage all the customer orders and try to make sure that their best, most established, most consistent buyers get taken care of first and then juggle and try to get the prioritizing right on the rest and it's not easy. These people are good people and they've got a really tough task and they do as good a job as anyone could.

That's why I put so much research and effort into laying out the road map of what's coming to the best of my ability to ascertain at this juncture. To help the people who aren't already Tier 1 customers. To let them know what's coming. So people can have a heads up about what they may be interested in and get a game plan going and get after it. So that you can be proactive and be a first mover. Get ahead of your competition, namely those who aren't part of this Ferrari Chat community, which is so generous with the helpful posts on so many subjects.

I will reiterate my best advice: If there is something on the coming roadmap of cars that excites you ... get cracking down to your dealership in the very near future. Sit your salesman down and the sales manager down and say "Guys I'm really excited about this certain model that I've heard is coming out. What can I do to get high up enough on the allocation stack that I will get one of these? Talk to me."

Hope this helps. Cheers

 

You can drive yourself bonkers thinking about this. If you bought a Monza SP1 does that increase your chances of getting an Icona F40 ( unconfirmed early intel it may be in the works ) because you just put $1.4 million pure profit on top of their production cost into Ferrari's coffers?
Or ... did it actually lower your chances because the way Ferrari sees it, they gave you your bite of the Icona apple and now they need to give somebody else their bite? It's an unknowable unknown. Because whatever the answer is it could change months from now.

It's not a new system or pathway or roadmap just because there are a few more models coming at us now than in recent years. And even that hasn't radically increased actually ...

The big difference and the only difference really when you think about it is on the regular production mid-engine cars. There used to be one. Now there's going to be two. That's it. And you're not doing the dealer or the factory a favor by raising your hand for either one of those cars ... you're calling in a favor when you do. Same with an 812 Spider. So if you buy some only moderately in-demand front engine cars and you buy the F173 but you don't buy the mid-engine 6-cylinder is that going to drop you down the stack? It seems a rhetorical question to me but ask the lads at your dealership just to be sure.

It's the same rules of the road as before. The same principles apply. The same methods, strategies and tactics still apply. Don't fret so much about trying to navigate some perceived anointed car buying pathway. It's never quite paint-by-numbers and it changes. Buy some cars you are really keen for and some you aren't so keen for. You will be a hero. Ask your dealer what it would take for you to be one of the 3 or 4 customers at the top of the list for XYZ. And you've only got one more addition to the regular production car landscape to strategize around anyways.

Best

 

You are another fine gentleman ... who is wrong by a mile. When this 880 Monaco comes out
( I'm just making that up right now as a placeholder lol ) ... the F173 ... as it goes tear assing faster than a LaFerrari would around the Monaco Grand-Prix circuit on flying demonstration laps and it's howling through the tunnel and the hills are echoing with its banshee wail ... you will see that the soul of Ferrari is well intact my friend! Forza Ferrari!!!

 

Right. So what's missing from the Maclaren side of the equation? Demand. Forza Ferrari!

 

People like you are why Ferrari is going to take no chances and pull no punches with the F173.

They are going to convert the apostates such as yourself with this car...

It is going to look like a UFO, cause a wormhole in space when you press the throttle
and sound like a TIE fighter from Hell as it goes by !

Ferrari fans everywhere are going to pick their jaws up off the floor and say
"I want a hybrid Ferrari."

Do you know how I know this? Because if they don't they're done for.

Trust in Ferrari. Believe in Ferrari. They are the greatest product designers and engineers on the planet. And when the F 173 comes out you will think they are from ... ANOTHER planet!

 

Even if they are 60kg more than their current cars ... nobody is going to notice or care when when they lap Fiorano 2 seconds faster.

 

I am amazed at all the nattering nervous negativity on here. Ferrari product is entering a golden era. You don't need to worry about them. By the time Chris Harris steps out of the F173 and utters "Wow, Wow, Wow!" the entire production run will be effectively already spoken for.

To all the non-fear based Ferrari fans on here actually looking to enjoy life ... heed these words.

 

I'm sure they are doing something scientists refer to as "planning."

 

Yes you're right. We don't have the same passion. Is there a mic emoji on here so I can drop it?

 

That's a really good point. Not only is this F142M-FL Geneva car showing next week the last mid-engine V-8 you can buy factory new for under 500,000 ... it's the last mid-engine Ferrari
non-hybrid car there will ever be. Full stop. If having a pre-hybrid car is important to you then
I suggest you are waiting at your dealership before they open tomorrow. Excellent point.