what´s going on with 812 production??

Hi all,
back in early 2017 I ordered the 812. Contract say´s delivery march / april 2020.
Now the dealer is pushing to configure the car since Ferrari want`s it to go into production as soon as possible.
Cant`they sell the cars anymore? Is demand for the 812 droping?
This is for continental Europe.
Enjoy your day
Heidy

 

Below are some tables with the 812 and the F12 Berlinetta sales in Europe. That's the only fiable statistical information available about Ferrari sales and when comparing the two models what the numbers tell us is the following. In the first year 2017 for the 812 and 2012 for the F12 B , the former sold half the number of cars. In the second year 2018 for the 812 and 2013 for the F12 Berlinetta the later sold 90 cars more. Since the F12 B sales declined in the third year which was 2014, when compared with 2013 , we have to wait and see if the 812 sales follow the same tendency in 2019 when compared with 2018.
I presume it's too early to say that the 812 is selling less than the F12 B but by the end of 2019 there will be a better idea about the tendency.



Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

I’ve heard in mainland Europe Ferrari are tying to get everyone delivered in under two years. I ordered nov17 and am expecting nov this year.

 

My AD always get me the cars earlier than the original promise date. I think you shouldn't worry too much.

 

Shouldnt you be happy that you'd get your car earlier?

 

Maybe now that Lusso V12 production is nearing the end and perhaps they are now or are nearly complete with the production of 499 Monza SP1/SP2 cars (that would consume almost 6 months of V12 production all by itself) and now have availability to ramp up 812?

 

Makes sense because Ferrari's EU CO2 penalties / fines increase for 2021, why take a hit (pay fines) on cars made then when they can get them done sooner and pay smaller amount in fines to the EU?

 

Great table, can you make it for world wide production and include the other V12 models produced each year (FF, F60, Tdf, Lusso and any others I left out like Monza)

 

I compiled sometime ago this other table below with Ferrari sales in Europe for all models since the year 2000.

 

Thank you, I do not understand the table.

I reduced it to just my question about 2018:

Image Unavailable, Please Login

Given the above is for only Europe, and given maximum yearly V12 production is about 1300 engines, how is this possible?

The table above shows 1,034 units produced in 2018?

Either I misunderstand how many V12 engines Ferrari is able to produce per year or the above quantities are for the entire world or at least not only Europe or Ferrari is dedicating as much V12 production as possible for Europe before higher fines and penalties for CO2 emissions occurs in 2021? I believe approximately (200) 2018 812s were made for North America, would you know if that is correct?

Can you correct my misunderstanding?

Thank you !

 

The numbers were taken from CARSALESBASE and their sources are very reliable and include: Manufacturers, ANDC, JATO Dynamics. The car sales statistics are from the following European countries: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland.

Only a percentage of these 473 GTC4 Lussos sold in 2018 are equipped with a V12 engines because there are also the V8's. Europe accounts for about 35 per cent of Ferrari global sales and the US around 30 per cent. I can't confirm that Ferrari engine production capacity is limited to 1300 V12 units per year.

 

From Page 44:

http://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/ferrari15ipo/files/ferrari_nv_annual_report_12.31.2018.pdf


In 2018 we produced an average of approximately 177 engines per day, including approximately 10 V12, 43 V8 (including 5 V8 turbo and
7 V8 aspirated for Maserati) and 124 V6 engines for Maserati (see “—Manufacturing of Engines for Maserati”).

So, just need to know the number of work days, a rough estimate is 225 (total 2018 production of 9,251 / 41 Ferrari engines per day)

So, maybe total V12 production in 2018 was 2,250 engines and the Annual Report indicates Icona (Monza SP1/SP2) production/deliveries start in 2019.

Judging by page 36 of Annual Report, EU and North America production are approx. equal so it seems 812 production is "on target", not slowing at all for EU...

Unfortunately carsalesbase does not report model information for USA sales.

 

A little more detail:

From 2017 Annual Report, Page 66:

http://corporate.ferrari.com/sites/ferrari15ipo/files/annual_report_2017_eng.pdf

For the years ended December 31,
______2017 2016 2015
V12(2) 998 1,152 1,169 (SPORTS = F12/LaF/Tdf/812)

V12 936 394 323 (GT = LUSSO)

TOTALS 1934 1546 1492

The 2017 report also indicates (12) V12s per day, if that is the case then 161 work days (Not 225) and 2018 V12 production was (10) per day, so, would seem to indicate ~1610 V12s made 2018, and if those EU sales are correct and I presume they are, then EU receiving 1034 V12s is double what would be expected (508 would be expected if this is close to an accurate review) and then it would follow that production of V12s for EU is being prioritized

 

I think for these charts to mean anything is if the 812 was available with unlimited supply. It took me 16 months to get mine after it was ordered, and for what I know it has been and might still be slow and hard to get. How do you judge when Ferrari is controlling the supply.

 

By reviewing the 2017 Ferrari Annual Report and previous where breakdown of V12 production per country was provided.

Based on that empirical review, the EU (not including MiddleEast/Africa) and USA/NA (inc. Canada+Mexico/etc) are about equal in production (roughly 50/50 and rest of world combined is about same as EU, so each is a third) and current results of 2018 provided by carsalesbase clearly shows over 1000 812s sold/registered in EU (and related - not all are actual EU but are part of the greater European community): The car sales statistics are from the following European countries: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal,Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland.) And those could not be 2017 production carried over, at least not much due to very lower 2017 812 production.

and based on review of same Annual Reports and 2018 Annual Reporting revealing (10) V12s produced per day and assuming same ratio of actual production days yields about (1600) V12s produced in 2018, but, EU had 1034 or so registered, so, that would tend to indicate that EU production consumed about 62% of total production when it should of been closer to 33%, that plus confirmation from several USA-based Ferrari dealers that their allocations are about half of expected all points me to the conclusion that Ferrari is prioritizing 812 production for EU countries.

And then, why is the next question, one reason, money.

Starting calendar 2021 EU fines Ferrari pays per 812 registered in EU will increase and, when you consider Ferrari's recent indications of exceeding 10,000 units (worldwide production) 'soon' that would portend very significant fines (about $30,000 per 812 registered in EU) if Ferrari loses its Small Manufacturing status and instead of using 277g/km CO2 as basis for EU fines could use 95g/km and 812 produces 366g/km (do the math, about 95 Euro per g/km over per car).

Follow on hypothesis: And because after 2022 Euro 7 will be approaching, fines will very likely continue to grow so if Ferrari were to maintain 366g/km V12 (i.e. CO2 emissions, i.e. plant food) fines could be $60,000 or more per car registered (i.e. presuming Ferrari loses its Small Manufacturing status, which is very likely with Purosangue release and its production of 1000s of more vehicles per year --Ferrari's expectation). So, what does Ferrari do? Continue a general model with a V12 with huge price disparity between EU and rest of world, i.e. substantially increasing base price for EU to cover fines? Or drop V12 (never). Or create a tiny V12+heavy battery packs, electric motors and fake sound to get CO2 emissions to a lower level resulting in lower fines? Or one of those plus reserve the true V12 with no turbo/electric assist only for Icona / limited edition series?

Anyway, that's my review at the moment, open to refinement and correction.

 

Sales meaning delivery or contract signing ?


Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat

 

I presume registered, so delivery of physical vehicle...

 

That's a very good question and I presume sales means registrations and the reason is the following:

Carsalesbase from where I took the sales information is a blog from Holland run by someone who is an expert in the automobile field. Their primary source for the sales statistics is the ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers Association that publishes regular press releases reporting new passenger car and commercial vehicle registrations in Europe.
Carsalebase also has other information sources namely; ANDC - Automotive News Data Center , who is the industry's primary source of automotive sales, production, inventory and incentive data, and JATO Dynamics that specializes in automotive business intelligence solutions that provide insights, analysis, data and specifications about global car markets.

 

Excellent analysis. If we connect the dots, ceteris paribus, it's pretty clear where this is all headed...

 

Very nice analysis and that could very well be one of the reasons why Ferrari is speeding the 812 deliveries in Europe. Where I live I've seen the first 812 on March of 2018 and since some others have already been delivered. I presume when a new model has been released Ferrari traditionally always tended to serve Europe first and that's the main reason why deliveries to customers in the US and in other continents normally take much longer.

 

My experience has been the opposite. I ordered Lusso in 2015 and got it in 2018, ordered 812 at the customer preview in Maranello, Feb 2017 - no sign of it yet, ordered Pista Spider mid 2018 and estimated early 2020, yet Speciale ordered late 2014 got it May ‘15, 488 Spider ordered 2016 got it 2017.

If anything wait times have been much longer for V12 and generally getting longer. I noted though how some US fchat members ordered cars like Lusso more than a year after me and got it 6 months before me. I personally think the US market is supplied early and given priority.

 

I think right hand drive (RHD) cars are treated separated. There seems to be a regular alternating cycle between the major RHD markets (AU and UK), so I think that does impact your deliveries (presuming you are ordering fairly straightforward builds rather than those that will take years to produce under any conditions).

As for your 812 ordered 2 years hence, does that presume to indicate you received an allocation 2 years ago or merely ordered? If your order has not yet received a factory allocation that would be a cause for alarm, either your dealer is subverting your order for that of others who may have higher priority with that particular dealer or that dealer is simply overwhelmed with orders and has not received an allocation to attach your order to. So I think the "no sign of" comment is a little terse and could be further elaborated upon if you care to...

The EU registration statistics provided earlier in this thread clearly indicate where 812 production has been prioritized (UK notwithstanding) and it has not be the US market.

 

My 812 is a TM car, the VIP cars from my dealer have been coming through since mid/late last year only and the TM cars are now arriving - another fchat member from my dealer is receiving his at the moment, mine is due soon but don’t yet have any information exactly when. My point is that it doesn’t feel like priority is being given to the UK market against the US. The figures on the spreadsheet above don’t seem to make sense. They suggest that half of Ferrari production is going to Europe, which I don’t believe to be correct. I could believe EMEA is half but even that is somewhat doubtful to me since the US is a third and the Asian markets have been very strong over that period. There is no way that Asia, Middle East and Africa are one sixth of production combined. The chart doesn’t give any comparison to the US in terms of how quickly certain models rolled out between the two continents, unless you are prepared to guess the US.

Conversely, whenever new cars are launched American, Middle Eastern and Eastern European customers seem to report on their cars before the rest of Europe (highly subjective opinion but I have read far too much fchat discussion for my own good over that period!) I think it is a logical approach from Ferrari too. US customers are notoriously less patient with supply. As I understand it they are used to walking up to the lot and basically driving away in terms of normal car buying. If you make those markets wait too long they disappear. Whereas markets that are prepared to wait won’t disappear if they are a little later in the plan.

 

Well, if you have the time, read through all my posts on this thread, I tried to explain all that I was able to discover.
TM cars will naturally be slower, some take up to 3 years to produce from what I have seen. Really depends on the nature of the TM customizations.

Sales of 812s in US are not provided, however, dealers are receiving about half their expected quota, that is 100% confirmed.

Interesting to note UK RHD production is also slower than expected, thank you

 

Your 2250 V12 cars in 2018 is a very good estimate.

Ferrari actually indirectly tells the exact number: See the CFO's opening remarks in the Earnings call from January,.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237157-ferrari-n-v-race-ceo-louis-camilleri-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

.

So if X% of the cars are V12s, then (100-X)% of the cars are V8 and

19.6% x X% + 7.3% x (100-X)% = 10.2%

because the weighted growth rates of each type of car must be equal to the total growth rate of 10.2%

So that means X = 23.58%

With a total production of 9251 cars, that means they made 2,181 V12 in 2018.