DeMuro on which cars will go down in price, calls out special edition Ferraris

He makes some good points here, especially about 911's.

 

Numbers matter. Witness all the "Indy Pace Car" editions by many manufacturers since the mid-1970s. Very few cars are truly "investments."

 

I dont think he is in any way qualified.

 

That doesn’t mean he’s wrong.

When you encounter an opinion that you disagree with, it’s useful to consider how someone could arrive at that view - what assumptions you need to make, what fact patterns it’s based on, etc.

Also, you should consider the probability that he is right, as well as the probability that he’s wrong. Weigh those against the different economic outcomes, and then plan accordingly.

Very few people expected there to be a national real estate crash of the magnitude we experienced just over a decade ago.

If you own one of those cars, and would be fine if the market value goes to $1.05, then don’t worry about it. Just enjoy life.

If the value is important to you, either in absolute or relative terms, then treat it like you do a stock. Consider DeMuro’s article as a datapoint, and watch the market for these cars like a hawk.

 

actually no. first you determine if someone is qualified to have an opinion or else you will be drowned i. thousands of unqualified opinions. There is nothing in his background that tells me he is qualified to have an opinion on this (and neither am i or most people on this forum). so no reason to waste even a moment considering his opinion even if, by luck, he happens to be right.

 

Politicians are remarkably unqualified to weigh in on the subjects they do, but you would be ill advised to ignore their views.

If you want to put a “qualified” filter on things, then you also should be adding filters relating to someone’s ability to impact the state of affairs, either directly or indirectly.

How influential is Doug? Excellent question. He certainly has a broad reach, but do his views influence market participants? Excellent question, too. Maybe he has zero influence. It’s quite possible.

But before you totally dismiss him, remember that many of his cars end up being supplied by various dealers. Those dealers may actually be qualified to weigh in, so there is also the question as to whether the views he expressed were informed by his conversations with those dealers.

I really don’t have a dog in the fight, but I’ve also seen too many situations where someone’s voice gets excluded from consideration because they weren’t “qualified”, where the determination of qualification wasn’t necessarily correct.

 

Yes Doug nails the plenitude and nostalgia of 70 to 90's Porches.
He complexity misses the nostalgia of 90+ Japanese cars in assuming everyone is his age or older.
THOSE are the sleeper investments.

 

I think the prices of Ferrari specialty cars is just crazy now. The 16m is a nice car but not worth $5ooK.

 

No one knows definitively so its all opinion. However, mister Doug does not know the difference between a Ferrari SE and a numbered LE. That said, with the current increase in production and the barrage of new model releases maybe even those that there are relative few of will be impacted because it will not be unusual to see an SE of any model. Many potential owners have even expressed displeasure because some of the newly announced models like the 812 Spider and the BB will not be LEs. Here I think Ferrari is purposely holding LEs back to keep a sense of rarity but not afraid to make a series of SEs that are 'limited' due to production time. Those Doug may have lucked into being more correct. But its still all opinion.

 

Yes, could be. Depends on how many cars are left.

Two examples:

(A) 18,000 NSXs produced and were an expensive car at the time and I don't believe they ever depreciated below about $35k. Even though a lot were probably preserved because of the price factor, the number remaining is still a relatively small number. (compared to Porsches and Corvettes)

(B) 110,000 S2000 were produced world-wide. Cars eventually depreciated down to the $6-8k range with many being wrecked and "consumed" like happened to the Datsun 240Z. The big question is how many desirable examples remain for future collectors?

Another situation (and another generation) is the Lexus LFA. Only 500 units produced and prices have been appreciating lately. (See LFA Appreciation elsewhere).

 

16Ms are about 300k now. Regular Scuds 175 or so. Either is a good non depreciating choice

 

Selling your car for a profit should only be a reward for the long term care of it.

 

Yes, and both are still trading under MSRP, unlike the Ford GT which he owns, as well as the oil-cooled 911s that are hot now. A decent 993 Turbo ($100k MSRP) is currently priced at $135k-ish, and they made twice as many (or more) than Scuderias.

 

Every dog has its day. At some point Mondials will be going up in value.

 

I remember being a kid back in the 80s and trying to convince my dad to buy a Mondial since it had four seats. It didn’t work.

Maybe there was more wisdom at play there than just not wanting to spend that much on a car. Given the hours he was putting in on Wall St. at the time, it’s not like he would have had much use for it.

 

Well, you know what they say about opinions and that certain part of your anatomy where the sun doesn't shine ................ everybody's got one.

 

Must have some chip on his shoulder to even take a swipe at a 300zx and 3000gt.

 

I would have killed for a 3000GT back in the day, and had to make due with a humble Eclipse. Then again, I was a teenager, so I was incredibly fortunate to have a car that was as much fun as the Eclipse was.

These days, the 3000GT doesn’t really do anything for me. I would actually be more excited by a well sorted and unmodified Eclipse, but it’s not like I’m pining after either.

I think the 3000GT will not be a big collector car due to what’s happened to Mitsubishi as a brand. It wasn’t a special enough car to overcome the fact that Mitsubishi is now just a brand that will cater to subprime borrowers who want a new car.

 

Is that guy Doug DeMuro an F-Chatter? I like the cars he demonstrates but I'm not crazy about his presentation style.

 

I dunno anything about this guy, but Ferrari used to be the master at building hype for a new model. Indeed, the Stradale, as much as I liked my car, was little more than a tarted up F360 for $30k more. Today it seems as if the company has ADD. Too much spin for too man models.

 

Honestly even production figures don’t matter, it’s a matter of did the world like the car or not? My 575 only 2k were made and less than 500 in the us it’s value now is $75-85k would I sell it there, no but that’s its value. Nobody seems to like it, I don’t care I loved it as a teenager and I love it today, people can keep paying more for supras and nsx all they want and I’ll keep my Ferrari. We all have different tastes and if the other 90s kids like myself want the Toyota’s and supras and s2000s while the 355 and 575 stay cheap, then cool. Good for those of us who like Ferrari’s. Unless your car has a quick and massive jump in value odds are you barely keep up with inflation after maintenance and taxes are added in. I can’t see these modern classics going up much bc running costs are insane and so is the task of finding a decent shop today. My 575 cost me $15k last year, most millennials would rather a lifetime Supply of $8 uber and avocado toast for a year vs spending that fixing power steering leaks and servicing a 20 year old v12 that’s significantly slower than what they consider cool a Tesla.

 

I used to have Dodge Stealth RT Twin Turbo (a 3000Gt with some viper-ish touches), and I loved that car for a lot of the same reasons why I love the 360. Very planted, civilized useable hp, and rakish good looks. I always felt it was under appreciated while the supra was over hyped due to a cheesy movie and some tuners pulling massive hp out of it.
While the Stealth would look dated today, much like all the 90s Japanese cars, I think it would still be a lot of fun to drive.
I hardly ever see any eclipses, talons etc anymore.
I’m not a believer that any of the 90s car will appreciate significantly. To me, they’re like the C3 corvettes. Ppl with big bucks won’t find the charm in investing in any of their plastic glory. They just don’t have the cool factor anymore.

Numbers don’t always tell the whole story with collectibles. Some cars just take on a myth of their own.

 

I’m not betting on that. Sometimes an old car is just an old car. Shame actually. With a few enhancements I think it could have been a charming car.
I hated the way pinifarina designed that way, where models looked very watered down from other models, ie the way the 348 looked like a “lesser”, toned-down or mini TR. It doomed those models.

 

Did you just diss my Jensen Healey?

 

Amen...he said the tr was shooting in value... it fell ever since


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