812 Market Dynamics

My problem with EV's is that people like Elon Musk are conflating climate change and driving an EV. It's yet one more thing that divides us. Back in the day, I drove an H2 Hummer when they first hit the market. I loved it and drove one from 2003 to 2008. It got 11 mpg around town and 14 mpg on the highway. I got flipped off repeatedly, had my windows pounded on, had notes left on it calling me nasty things and was even called an environmental terrorist. I traded my last one in for a new 2008 Denali that got 13 mpg around town and 16 mpg on the hiway but none of the negative attention like in the H2. Although I was told I was responsible for the BP oil spill and ruining the Gulf of Mexico because I drove an SUV. Point being, it was a targeted by ignorant people who bought into the hysteria.

If you want to drive an EV, then I hope there are as many choices as you an imagine. If you want to drive an 800hp V12, then you should be able to do so and enjoy it. Everything has a drawback. There is good and there is bad. There is no free lunch. Gas, grass, ass nobody rides for free, etc. The planet isn't wrecked and won't be in another 10 years or 12 years when we are all supposed to die. Don't force this crap down my throat or spread propaganda to pit one group against another.

I'm sure there will come a day when EV's have the range, ease of recharging, better performance, etc., than ICE cars and the market will take care of that. In the car world, things have been improving and there is no reason to think that won't continue.

 

Not really, once you take into consideration all the government giveaways to make sales happen and the fact that each automaker continues to lose money on each one sold, there is no long term viable strategy. Less than 2% of worldwide all light vehicle sales are pure EV.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/03/13/an-inconvenient-truth-for-the-global-auto-industry-electric-cars-are-not-selling-in-2019/

https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/teslas-surprise-quarterly-profit-is-highly-questionable-and-not-at-all-sustainable-one-analyst-says/articleshow/71745634.cms

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298514-teslas-surprise-profit-conceals-deteriorating-fundamentals

So, if so popular, why this idea?

https://www.autonews.com/retail/senate-democrat-schumer-proposes-454-billion-plan-swap-gas-cars-evs

Because they are not "that" popular and have to be forced by governments and in regards to this specific forum and this message thread, do you really believe in terms of why we are on this site EVs are what you choose over the best V12 ever made?

 

Tesla sells well, cant deny.
I dont give a shake about fundamentals and didnt mention it.

 

Wonder if this diesel generator has a DPF? (Diesel Particulate Filter) Where's the "net gain / environmental benefit" of EV in this particular circumstance?

Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

I sure can deny it, somewhere around 500,000 lifetime sales (since 2008) less than one year's sales of actually popular models...by Ford, Honda, Toyota, etc...

Fundamentals are definitely mentioned, unmentioned, because if they were as popular as believed they would sell at a profit and have the ability to self-fund and not rely on government handouts to sustain themselves...

if not for government interventions Tesla sales would be substantially less...the amount of such subsidies in Europe is staggering...completely distorts the market

if they were truly popular there would be no need for government handouts, but that is not the case at all

Major government coercion via penalties:

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/automakers-risk-massive-fines-co2-target-miss-analysts-say

Subsidies are so fundamental to Tesla's business they provide details on their website:

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/support/incentives

https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/support/incentives

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/support/incentives

and more:

https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/200447-anton-wahlman/5176045-sweden-s-electric-car-incentives-increase-50-percent-july-1-2018

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-tax/china-to-exempt-tesla-cars-from-10-purchase-tax-idUSKCN1VK1AU

https://prbusinesslink.com/importing-tax-exempt-electric-vehicles-act-81/

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122496_fiat-chrysler-to-pay-tesla-hundreds-of-millions-for-emissions-credits

(and more and more...)

I ask you, what part of any of that indicates Tesla's are popular? It seems they require generous assistance via taxpayer funded incentives...

 

That word: "many." Defined by Webster --

Noun, plural in construction.
1: a large but indefinite number
2: the great majority of people

Perhaps a different word choice is in order.

 

I know some peeps just hate on it and thats fine.
I'm a car nut, appreciate them all, love a few.
Again, I have no focus on the underlying fundamentals and could care less.
Forbes, CNN, CNBC etc...Do a quick search for Model 3 and you see it was the #1 Luxury Car in sales volume in USA. And, ~3X the volume of all Porsche, which nearly all competent analysts view as "successful".
Just sales facts, no emotion.
I suppose Honda and Toyota sell many EV's also and compete in a different segment.

 

Perhaps, but you know the point
I'll upgrade to "lots!"

 

sorry, but, model 3 is definitely not a "luxury car" so right there you know statistics are being fabricated to make it look good

https://www.gearbrain.com/tesla-model-3-luxury-car-2636099920.html

you cannot even get leather interior, just biodegradable one and only two choices, all black or black and white
https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/2/20844481/tesla-model-3-interior-leather-free-steering-wheel

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-claims-are-flawed-2018-6

not to mention that the overall sedan market is shrinking, fast, so comparing against a shrinking luxury market isn't really all that impressive...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-good-deals-on-any-of-these-discontinued-cars-2019-10-07

not to mention at least through 2019, Teslas USA sales are skewed with substantial government discounts, let us see how it competes when those disappear...I would not be surprised if it were to retain the king of the diminishing market status...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/28/business/tesla-tax-credit-loss/index.html

many other countries will continue their handouts...

 

Read, it is indeed classified as such.
Not sure what your issue is.
Back to 812...

 

Your being too kind. Try less than one 20th of Honda car sales alone. Tesla sales are meaningless:

"Globally, Toyota sold around 9.6 million vehicles in the fiscal year that ended in March 2019. "

"Globally, Japan's Honda Group sold about 5.3 million automobiles in its 2019 fiscal year, which is 124 thousand more than the previous year. Additionally, the group sold nearly 20.3 million motorcycles and 6.3 million power products that year"

"As of December 2018, the Ford Motor Company has sold almost 2.4 million vehicles under its namesake brand for the year"

I picked up my 6.3l NA V12 F12 today after a museum quality paint correction and PPF (totally blown away!). Used almost a full tank of high test gas to get home. Tomorrow is my son's birthday and we all will go out to our favorite steakhouse where I fancy the 20 oz ribeye bone-in medium rare. There is no shame in behaving normally and enjoying life. The shame lies in those who are new to this planet and attempt to force their bizarre norms upon us. The falling prices of the 812 are very sad. These cars are classic masterpieces. ICE engine will be around long after everyone here is gone so drive and enjoy what you wish.

 

My issue is EVs are not a suitable replacement for current cars and only through government forcing is there even a market for EVs. To be a suitable replacement EVs would need to be better in nearly every way. As they currently exist, they are a major step backwards in so many ways to render them useless for many purposes and especially as compared to the 812.

Of course, back to the 812, cannot wait to see what Ferrari can do to improve upon it, but, until then, 812(coupe) production is tailing off and there will be some downtime until the 812GTS is in production, will we see price stabilization in undersupplied markets such as the USA? Or will everyone presume there will be an 812 replacement, but, what if there is such replacement? Of course we should know within 2 years.

Until then, as we head into winter (USA), the exotic marketplace will experience its typical price reductions as many locations are not suitable for spirited driving and it appears to be a rather cold one approaching, already most of the heartland has ended its growing season (early snow/ice). That and current economic uncertainty is appearing to diminish resale demand. Some deals will be made but many cars will remain unsold. However, if you want an 812, you can still order an 812 so maybe the resale market is not that important at this time because there are those that will keep the 812 forever (who originally ordered one) and once GPF devices are fitted to the 812 (no field reports from anywhere this has yet occurred though I suspect we will have some presenting in the next 30-60 days) if it harms the 812 experience those earlier models will likely acquire a new found opportunity incentive to purchase and you may find the current inventory more quickly disappear.

Once the impact of GPF (and ADAS nannies + updated EU Noise regulations) is better understood, makes me wonder how strong the 812GTS orders will actually be, and once they begin to arrive (USA) in spring 2021 (speculated) will there be an uptick in 812 coupe preowned inventories?

In the meantime, if you find an 812 you like, negotiate and put it in the garage

 

Don't you mean: downgrade to "lots"?

 

Nope.

 

I just did that and I am thrilled to join the club. What a car!

 

I couldn't agree more.

Mike

 

During the official presentation of the brand new Golf Mk8, VW’s CEO Herbert Diess was keen on praising Tesla for its achievements so far.


Diess criticized comments from reporters who suggested that Tesla is in trouble because of its small size. “Tesla is not niche,” VW’s CEO said in response, according to Bloomberg. “The Model 3 is a large-series model and they are one of the biggest manufacturers of electric-car batteries.”

“We have a lot of respect for Tesla,” Diess added. “It’s a competitor we take very seriously.”

 

And so they should. Tesla's lead in software, UX and design and is lightyears ahead. Anything VW, Merc, BMW et al do will be inferior in terms of these aspects of their EV's. They simply have no advantage in these areas and are playing catch-up. These companies size and legacy capabilities are their fundamental problem IMO.

NOTE: I don't have an EV and am resisting like crazy until I am forced to but hats off to Tesla and Musk !!!

 

That's off-topic but Tesla's software is actually crap, it's pretending to be good, covering its real issues by disclaimers.

 

And at no time will I ever own a vehicle that can be remotely controlled in any respect.

https://i.blackhat.com/us-18/Thu-August-9/us-18-Liu-Over-The-Air-How-We-Remotely-Compromised-The-Gateway-Bcm-And-Autopilot-Ecus-Of-Tesla-Cars-wp.pdf

https://electrek.co/2019/10/04/tesla-software-updat-battery-capacity-loss-fire-investigation-nhtsa/

Tesla even has an email address: [email protected]

https://www.tesla.com/about/security

Sheesh.

This is not all that far fetched at all:

 

No doubt they are successful, many driving the cars, reflected in top sales figures.
I’m not sold on the sw or interiors, but as a whole it’s Brilliant.

 

All software is "crap" and all software has disclaimers a mile long. Nothing new here if you know the industry. Software is a constantly changing solution and will always have bugs. Tesla has build a software base that cannot be easily replicated.

 

+ 1 - for now agree but lets talk in 2-3 years

 

I can get better acceleration and more range from a Model S for less money. I am not going to argue the S is a better car, I am sure the Taycan is built much better, but, over here a loaded Taycan is nearly $225k- a good $75k over a loaded S. So I look at the Taycan as comparatively very expensive. Base price comparison on the Taycan is $103k- 185k- why such a big difference? The battery.

i3 sales in the USA are not going well as far as I can tell. And it only was able to make whatever sales they had by using the range extender.

Toyota says every 1 EV uses 60 hybrid cars worth of rare earth metals- the kinds that are highly polluting to mine.

I think if Porsche could have solved the emotional part, they would have done it, as they have thrown a ton of resources at the Taycan project. They know they will be compared to Tesla - and on specs alone, its not a wonderful comparison. That is to a 7+ year old car built to a worse standard.

Consumer preferences are always changing. So what?

I'd like you to drive an SF90 and then tell us if you think its a good or bad attempt.

 

I think you've missed another point- if the shift to EV happens too quickly, you could instantly depreciate (insert massive number) $$$ worth of ICE cars (the number could be quite large). Think about the impact of that on the economies of these countries. The politicians do not want that. A lot of this is nonsense talk they say to get your vote.

PS- do you remember being told back in 2015 that by 2021 almost all new cars would be EV and autonomous.... well, many 2021 model plans are being showed- where are these cars?

I'm sure we will eventually get there, but I have found the world is far more complicated than I could ever imagine, and I think I'm not alone.

As to EVs, I would be more than happy to pilot one as a daily driver. I'm not sure it makes much sense for a sports car- and I would be happy to be shown where I'm wrong.