Coronavirus live update

Key Developments:

• Worldwide cases exceed 316,000, more than 13,500 dead: Johns Hopkins data
• Spain deaths from coronavirus rise 30% to 1,720
• Emirates to suspend most passenger flights
• Wuhan partially lifts entry/exit ban
• A third of cases in China showed no symptoms, SCMP says
• U.S. infections top 26,000, France fatalities rise to 562
• Italy rocked by deadliest day as virus prompts industry shutdown

Via Bloomberg

 

Cuomo saying 40 - 80% of Americans will get it ...that is a huge number

 

My mistake. I used Google Translate and did not see at the bottom they were individuals brought back.

NYC and LA are restricting testing to only those in which it makes a different in patient management as with COVID-19 the treatment thus far is supportive care, while other infections could be treated in additional ways.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-21-20-intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

 

Ny fatality rate lower than US which is lower than europe for now...

(Not cuomo saying that, just my math)

 

The continued decline I was hopeful for, for murika overall however has stopped as of this post. Let’s see if it’s a reverse trend or if it’s just a pause, obviously hoping it’s the latter. With 302 dead, 23,649 confirmed infected, our mortality rate is now at 1.29%...

In NYC only, with 76 dead and 15,168 confirmed infected, the mortality rate is 0.5%

 

Our premier (N.S.) just placed us in a state of emergency after advising earlier this week he doubted he would need to enact the measure. As you mention, stupid people live everywhere.

 

From CNN Townhall transcript of March 12 with DR. MARIA VAN KERKHOVE, TECHNICAL LEAD FOR CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION:

GUPTA: You know, one of the things I think is worth drilling down on a little bit, 80 percent we hear will have sort mild disease, Doctor. But, you know, when I read the studies out of China, I just want to be clear on what "mild" disease means. Because when I read the studies it looked like people within that 80 percent still could have pneumonia, still could have lung-scarring, you know, significant things.

VAN KERKHOVE: Yes. You're right. It's not just, you know, a few days at home feeling unwell. About 40 percent of people will have a relatively mild disease. And we mean that in the sense where they will feel unwell. They'll have a fever. They'll have some respiratory symptoms. They'll have some aches and pains, maybe headache.

But then there are another 40 percent that will develop pneumonia, or a mild form of pneumonia. And I know that doesn't sound very mild, but will not require oxygen, will not require respiratory support.

 

From NY Times:
“Deaths are not a perfect proxy for total infections, since the fatality rate from the disease depends on the underlying age and health of populations; the availability of various treatments; and the capacity of different health systems themselves. But they remain one of the best available measurements to compare places right now.”

New York is seeing deaths doubling every 2 days, California every 4 days, Washington every 7 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

New York unning a clinical trial beginning Tuesday of a treatment regimen of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, two drugs that doctors in Africa and elsewhere say they’ve seen good results in fighting the virus.

Fingers crossed...

 

Just basing my thoughts on first hand experience.

 

I know many won't see this as positive news, but NYC is the epicenter of the murikan outbreak, and this low mortality rate bodes very well and shows the impact of the further ramp up of testing. As mentioned earlier, the common flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%.

 

You answer to an epidemy is militarism to endure it.
That denotes an alarming mindset to me.
.

 

This is not the P&R forum. 30-day thread bans.

This originally started as a thread to discuss the impact of the COVID-19 virus and its' effect on F1 teams and racing schedule. It's now devolved to a repetitive discussion of COVID-19 in general, which is already well covered in 30-50 other threads.

 

Canada just pulled the Olympic team from attending Tokyo.
There’s no way we’re going to have a race in Montreal in June.

Not a chance.

 

The season is done unfortunately. I'd be absolutely amazed if we got a single race given the current situation.

 

Do you believe in Santa Claus too?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-reaction-to-the-outbreak-has-revealed-the-unreceonstructed-despotism-of-the-chinese-state

 

Ok, since this thread took an alternate route, can we please talk about the investments too?

To me it's certain that it will be a global financial crisis much worse than that of 2008. I have people who are invested in other currencies asking me what to do. At first I thought that it would be a good idea turn it to the dollar (cash) and my reasoning for that is because a lot of companies, banks, and funds are selling and will sell assets to buy dollars, either to cover losses, pay back debt, etc. Also, and perhaps most importantly, people around the world, from China, Hong Kong, Brazil, etc., will run to buy dollars to protect their wealth from their currencies' devaluations, so putting a lot of upward pressure on the dollar.

However, I admit I'm confused what to do with the "infinity" QE from the FED. Is there any economist here who can clarify to me what will happen with the dollar? Is this some sort of "modern monetary theory"? Is the amount of money that the FED will print be sufficient to cause inflation and lower the dollar value?

Sorry for the dumb questions, I had a few classes on macro many years ago... Thanks.

 

There are two options governments can take (or combine):
-print more money
-borrow a couple of trillions from the 1st (rich) market that gets out of the Covid-19 crisis = China

As an individual, you can invest in face masks and toilet paper, there is an extremely high demand for these, no joke.

Back on topic, right now, nobody is interested in F1. Racing is luxury, and not needed as people don't have a clue how the world will look in 5 years from now. I fear the F1 season 2020 is completely over.

 

Swiss Franks

Swiss National Bank has been trying for years to devaluate their currency so the country remains interesting for tourism and their export industry doesn't take a hit (about 50% of GDP). And they were fairly successful locking it against Euro and $. But as Europe and the US increasingly use the printing press the conservative SNB is losing. The CHF continues to gain. For a reason.

Tricky part might be to find a bank that takes foreign cash to store it in CHF but they exist. Also they charge fees (negative interest) but that is easily made up by the gains in the exchange rate.

 

As with prior QEs, it will again cause asset price inflation and more inequality of the rich and poor. In the shortrun (less than 1 year from now), asset prices will fall due to decreasing demand, but after that will pick back up over 3-4 years and go well over where we were previously. "Regular inflation" (aka CPI, consumer goods) will not change so they will claim "inflation" did not rise. It shouldn't as we have enough materials and manufacturing and outsourcing to keep goods cheap. But real things like assets will inflate through the roof until the next crash which will be ever harder than this one.

 

Chart 1 here shows that well: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2011/the-uks-quantitative-easing-policy-design-operation-and-impact.pdf?la=en&hash=62052A70C866C3F52125D98619D2E8BD1E69D3BE

 

At any rate this is an F1 thread so I'm done talking about that. Any idea if more of this from current F1 teams will be coming out for sale? I noticed Shmee had a video with a collector in Switzerland (some museum) that had a 2006 BMW Sauber F1 car. Likely the one sold here: http://www.officinacaira.com/inventory

 

More news, Quebec today shuttered all non essential services, Montreal police declared state of emergency, over 100 cops in quarantine and province had recent spike in cases, now over 600.

 

25% of 20% is not a small chunk. Thats 5% of positive cases. Extrapolate to how many test are predicted to test positive in 1,2,4 and 8 weeks and its alarming.

"Generally, about 20 percent of coronavirus patients require hospitalization, with about a quarter of those needing to be put on a mechanical ventilator machine to help them breathe."

 

Italian coronavirus cases seen "10 times higher" than official tally

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italian-coronavirus-cases-seen-10-times-higher-than-official-tally-idUSKBN21B1CC

Don't see how the Canadian GP goes ahead.