The Future of ICE

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/09/13/porsche-synthetic-fuel-efuel-chile-plant/

 

Interesting read, but over the long term I’d expect (1) the price/kWh to continue to drop, and (2) consumers will flock to zero maintenance cars with 0-60 times in Ferrari/Porsche range. Taycans are outselling every other Porsche car.

Synthetic fuels are fascinating, but as the market acclimates to electric vehicles I think the convenience (charge overnight, start every day on full charge) and usability will convince most buyers to switch. No leaks, no transmission problems, no emissions tests, no rolled odometers, no ethanol…

Not to make too much of a comparison, but I’ve had a two-motor lightweight foldable wheelchair for a few years and the maintenance and repair are essentially nil. Acceleration is instant, and you can replace anything with a coupe of hex or Allen wrenches.



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Great to have you back and posting, your views were missed.


I agree the mainstream, 98% of cars will go electric, no reason not to, as you say its a superior powertrain for many reasons. But porche clearly thinks there is a enthusiast market for Ice, much as we see over 50% of Gt3s are manuals. And if you track, well its going to take 7x the power densities of current batteries to work.

My guess is porche. ferrari lambo see a long niche future for Ice, its central(along with styling) to their product appeal. Course these could be electric assist to keep up with performance stats. To analogize harley sold aircooled poorly balanced v twins for decades past their mechanical relevance on charisma alone.


Yesterday I went to see this car below. pninfarina battista.

1900hp power to each wheel all cotroled by compter so turn in etc is amazing, beautiful cf bodywork etc 5000lbs but most weight below the seats so dynamicaly not bad, for a street car/ . 2.5 mill.

For sure the electric sports cars will get less expensive and with improved battery tech better lighter etc.The paper specs will be unbeatable by Ice, to the extent thats relevant on the road. But thyere really a different animal, just as a modern turboed paddle shifted eps car is not a manual steering manual transmission. I think there will be a niche yet substantive market for cars for many years to come. the Italians and Germans are lobbying the eu to allow limited production for low volume manufactuers past the cutoff mandate.

I can certainly see buying a tesla roadster for the road. And if I had the scratch GTO engineering is dong some new build cali spiders, plus I need a Rs200.

It will be interesting and the market will speak. Were along for the ride, but its possible 100 yeras from nwo there will still be some ice running sythetic fiels and 3d printing will mean you can have the historic car of your choice. Imo its not the fuel mandates that are the biggest threat, its going to be autonomous cars on the road only mandates, but that still seems a long long way off..
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No disagreement in general......but we will begin to see where the EV maintenance issues arise over more time & more cars/miles. They will exist, and will still need to be addressed......maybe they will be simpler. Will also need a new breed of tech to maintain?

 

Porsche says it is against ICE production car sales in Europe after 2035. Several other car makers including Ferrari are lobbying to get limited production sportcars an exemption after 2035 in Europe. The synthetic fuel plant in Chile seems to be Porsche hedging it's bets.

The electric car transition will not be nearly as trouble free as people think, in fact it will be a total cluster F by 2035 if the tree huggers get their way.

 

I agree, Porsche is hedging its bets.

On the electric car transition, I’m more optimistic. Affluent consumers have voted with their wallets, and I think it’s just a matter of more desirable vehicles being offered. I personally don’t want a Bolt or a Tesla, but a Taycan has a huge cool factor and brand power.

Also, electricity isn’t all that new to us — we charge our iPhones, laptops, earbuds, shavers, etc. An EV is sort of normal. I just bought a new house, and it came pre-wired in the garage for a charger. It’s California so I have solar panels for the a/c, which is basically free at this point. Easy to add panels for free EV charging.

I do have a 1993 Porsche, which consumes plenty of gas and has a huge oil capacity, and which needs the care and maintenance $$$ that comes with an older 911. I’m into this as a hobby, but for daily commuting I’m already sold on a Taycan or similar.





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Far enough down the road that it isn’t an immediate concern and who knows, I may change my mind by then. I tend to drive distance and it gets cold up here (at least for now) therefore range and immediate refuel is a priority.
Until electrics can offer a three minute full recharge, I want my OHC.

 

I worked as a field Engineer for 7 years in the electric power industry, and our infrastructure is held together by a thread with a little duct tape.....and no one is talking about that. We can’t make a wholesale change for many years to come.

We need all the current sources for meeting our needs, but there is a wacky segment of the population that is so ignorant that they think electricity is generated and distributed for free.

I hope in that time we can have a breakthrough in synthetic fuels.

 

Actually, the Taycan, in the US, is simply stealing sales of the Panamera plus maybe 25% more...also happening in Europe, the Panamera was already for the most part selling a hybrid.

so, consider that reality, Taycan is not adding much in terms of units sold overall because it is largely replacing Panamera sales

 

That and the coming shortage of Lithium. There are some who think because there is enough Lithium in the oceans we should be ok. Trying to extract that tiny amount will drive the world bankrupt.

No one has common sense anymore blindly listening to the liars in the government.

 

There is plenty of Lithium in the world. The question is how difficult is it to get, how expensive it is to get, and the environmental damage getting it.

 

Yep, and ocean water has a lithium content hovering around 0.17 parts per million. It will drive the economies of the world bankrupt extracting that tiny amount. The leading US battery lab Argonne estimates there is only enough easily available Lithium to power around 45 % of the worlds cars, for one battery each.

 

Nukes?

 

Spent over a year at STP, but most of the experience being in coal fired and natural gas....oh, with one hydro plant job thrown in and was consulting with a wind power company.

 

Yeah I don't see Lithium being the solution for EV or killing off ICE. As long as manufacturers stick to Lithium, older tech will stay around. The only promising thing I have found is graphene Aluminum ion batteries and hopefully that makes it to market quickly, but it's more likely countries will destroy the environment to make Lithium batteries in order to save the environment lol...

 

This might be the answer as some of you might already know. I know the Japanese companies are putting alot of money into this and letting stupid GM build their Lithium battery Electric cars

Stan Meyer explains the Water Fuel Technology. Water car GENIUS - YouTube

 

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a3428/4271579/

quote:
Problem: It takes exactly the same amount of energy to pry those hydrogen and oxygen atoms apart inside the electrolysis cell as you get back when they recombine inside the fuel cell. The laws of thermodynamics haven't changed, in spite of any hype you read on some blog or news aggregator. Subtract the losses to heat in the engine and alternator and electrolysis cell, and you're losing energy, not gaining it--period.

At best you might achieve a little extra miles per gallon, but that's it, a ton of complexity for not much of a payoff, this 'water fuel' thought has been bouncing around for decades, where is the product? What car manufacturer uses it? It's snake oil...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Meyer%27s_water_fuel_cell

 

They say he was a fraud with his idea but something other than Lithium battery technology will be the answer. The Japanese car makers are not sold on full electric. GM and FORD seem to be. The European manufactures are basing everything on future government restrictions, right or wrong.

 

The Japanese, in Japan, are thinking "fuel cell" with hydrogen, good luck with that, explosive, corrosive, expensive to manufacture, lots of downstream issues, such as the fuel cells need regular review and replacement then they wear out so they don't have problems....

hydrogen is so difficult and expensive (to manufacture, to contain, to deliver), it cannot be a general solution