You're not assigning probabilities to your scenarios. Without assigning probabilities, you can't possibly make a well-informed decision. I'll start: Given the safety car history at Abu Dhabi, and the pre-race agreement, at the moment a pit-decision needed to be made ... the probability of your first scenario is maybe 5%, at best. Also, the probability of TWO laps of green was better than 50%, given the safety car history at Abu Dhabi. Further, it was made clear to all drivers that if contact happened between Verstappen and Hamilton ... Verstappen would be the one penalized.
I generally agree, but I'll make one point Mercedes had an opportunity at the VSC to pit and get tires that wouldn't be so shot towards the end. They would've lost no track position. The team elected not to take it, in a move that stunned even Brundle at the time. Made no sense, unless one concludes that there was a fear on the Mercedes wall that the pit crew could fumble a critical stop for Hamilton, and the decision was made that after pitting at lap 14, they were not coming back in, no matter what happened.
I personally think internally the Mercedes ran the stats on their pit crew, and concluded they were about due for a bad pit stop, and were very fearful of pitting more than once.
Mercedes had no reason to think the back markers wouldn't be waived by. They always have been for a number of years now. Finishing under yellow, perhaps, but not that at all. The real problem is that if they came in and the race finished under yellow, they'd look like idiots with Max winning that way. If they come, change tires, but Hamilton is unable to get by Max, who would be making his car very wide, they look like idiots as well. They played the only hand they could, which was to stay out and hope if the race went green Hamilton could defend for a few corners. Funny enough, Ham's tires did hold pace with the RB on that restart, and if he hadn't left the door wide open, I doubt Max would've gotten by him the rest of the lap judging by the Mercedes pace. Credit to Max. He made the overtake happen where it was a surprise, and it worked beautifully.
Could be. But with a VERY high probability of ONE lap of green, with a better than 50/50 chance of TWO laps of green (info available at the moment pit decisions must be made) ... keeping Hamilton on old tires was just doomed to FAIL.
Not really. I mean, the Mercedes car had great pace on the restart. The tires were worn, yeah, but the pace was impressive. Hamilton absolutely could've held Max off by just hugging the inside. There was no DRS for Max to just go by on the outside easily, but Ham made such a big mistake into turn 5. Even Riccardo has said "I kept thinking 'is Lewis going to defend?" as he watched from behind. Ham was just shaken and cracking under the pressure. He's become dependent on the Mercedes PU enabling him to just drive away on the straights. Honestly, though, his restart was just so bad that none of it really matters, and instead of him owning that, he and the team have looked for a scapegoat in Masi.
Maybe we should talk about Max' fanboys too. It could that there is more than meet the eyes there. I find it very curious that some never participated on this forum before, or even joined Fchat less than a month ago, to dedicate all their time on one thread to defend Masi's decision at Abu Dhabi. They keep delivering a well rehearsed argument to endorse the course of events at the last GP. and are hell-bent in justifying them, stamping relentlessly any different opinions. That defies logic, since even the FIA thought to investigate the race director, in view of the scandal he unleashed. Call me suspicious, but it maybe that some posters here could be close to Masi, or the FIA itself.
Members or member? It's clear you're talking about Kimi. As for your last point, if you think he's FIA affiliated purely to defend Max's title on Ferrarichat, you really, really need to get out more.
Yeah, he's talking about me. Whatever. I joined because another F1 forum got too crazy for me. I'm a Ferrari fan. Loved Schumi (with his ethical flaws), Rubens, Irvine, Massa and of course, Kimi. Been waiting for our team to come back for years. I chimed into this discussion because it's the hot topic for now, and there are points I wanted to make that others weren't. Conspiracy with the FIA? That's some funny **** that made my day.
Read this and lighten up. Its just F1 LOL The Fast and the Farmer-ish: Ellie Pacey - the Mercedes apprentice who races tractors By Ciaran VarleyBBC Sport https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/60236940 Meet Ellie Pacey. She works on Lewis Hamilton's Formula 1 car. And in her spare time, she competes in tractor pulling.
I presume that the FIA insiders are divided on the subject like we are. Both the FIA F1 Commission and the FIA Council are assemblies with several members.
Investigation by FIA continues...Messy surely must be on the way out now ? All credibility lost...well what little he had left.
Don't really disagree, but i just can't get passed the data available at the moment pit decisions must be made. No need to invite me to elaborate Data: Average safety car interval at Abu Dhabi (prior to 2021) is 3.2 laps. Latifi crashes with 5.5 laps to go, and it was not an "unusually severe" crash. Analysis: This data point alone, points to 50% chance that the race ends with TWO laps of green. Chances of ONE lap of green, are of course significantly higher ... call it 80% chance. This means you've got a 20% chance of the race ending under yellow. Additional data: Pre-race agreement (quoted by stewards) to end under green, "if at all possible". Analysis: This additional data skews the probabilities, of course, even more in favor of a green finish. Let's say you now have a 60% chance of TWO laps of green, and a 90% chance of ONE lap of green. At best, you've got a 10% chance of a yellow finish. As i see it, there's simply no way that it can be argued that Mercedes made a "good call" with this info available at the moment pit decisions must be made. In a stack of nine red cards and one black card, Mercedes bet on black. Hamilton knew it was a mistake, in the moment ... as did his team.
....which brings to the point we've been trying to make for 2 months: No rules have been broken, and FIA needs to clarify their rules further so that no grey areas exist any longer. Doesn't explain your bizarre reasoning that a new member here is somehow connected to the FIA though, and what he hopes to achieve for the FIA on a very minor F1 based forum.
It ain't continuing. The FIA don't give a ****. If Masi was going to be gone, I'd expect it would've already have been done.
IF the FIA fires Masi ... AND fires the stewards who quickly and unwaveringly supported his actions ... AND leaves the rules unchanged ... I'll admit that rules were "broken" by "rogue" officials
It's a suspicion, nothing more. Alternatively he could be a journo, or close to RBR, who knows ... The relentlessness the guy uses to stamp out ANY dissent, the way he articulates the defense of Masi, as if his life depended on it, that's very troubling. It's bordering on fanaticism !!! This is a forum to exchange ideas, not a court of law !
So you keep saying, but in fact many believe the opposite. This crisis is borne out of the race director overstepping his power to change an established protocol. We always comes back to the same point, but you, and people like you, want YOUR conclusion to be accepted before the investigation is closed. The outcome suits Max' fanboys (I can get derogatory too), so they wish to bury the issue, but it won't go away, however the number of posts you put on Fchat !
So… Masi neither fired nor replaced. Tempest in a teacup then—except for HAM fans, of course. HAM fans now need to come up with a new (perceived) scandal: Maybe Russell gets to stand closer to the car on Friday, or he gets mentioned more often than HAM…
I agree that if you only want to play 'Monday Morning Quarterback' with the benefit of full hindsight and time you can argue that Hamilton could have pitted under VSC, maintained track position and likely even kept enough of a buffer to do a final pitstop and maintained track position when the final yellow fell. In theory this is possible but to then use that as the basis of an argument that blames the Mercedes strategists I believe is absurd. I think that both the Mercedes and Red Bull pit wall each did an outstanding job to give their drivers opportunities. They played off fundamentally different strategies that had Masi just followed history and would have started the un-lapping process sooner would have avoided this whole controversy all together. Max would have beaten Lewis fair and square even if it would have been a last minute loss there would have been nothing cruel or unfair about it.
Exactly, it's only Masi's clumsy intervention that made the finish controversial, not Max winning over Hamilton.
Do you ever stop to think, and forget to start again.. because you have a tendency of occasionally posting crap.
