Starting to see a lot more cars on the market

Heard about CDOs in the last mortgage crisis? We may hear about ABS in 2023. Sub prime auto loans are being resold as structured credit offerrings. Oh and ofcourse rated AAA by the same rating agencies that rated sub prime mortgage backed securities.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/bonds-backed-by-car-loans-are-selling-at-fastest-pace-in-years-67882.html

 

This cannot be real..how could this be even be remotely legal? WTF is going on out there? You can't secure money against a historically depreciating asset..

 

I think the jury is still out on that. From what I've seen, the average 10 year old boy still goes bonkers when he sees a Ferrari. That is a visceral thing doesn't fade. I remember my first encounter with a Ferrari. I wasn't 10 but I still lusted. The best I could do at the time was an Opel Manta. Dreams like that are long lived.

Another thing to consider is that the pool of ICE exotics is about to be frozen. That's it. Forever. It's like when a painter dies. No more of those paintings and the values rise. The planet isn't being depopulated and the middle class is rising in many parts of the world. They're going to want their part of the dream.

Of course it's also likely that humans, being like fungus, will consume all available resources and choke in their own waste. In that reality, exotics would probably decrease in value.

 

They may go bonkers now..but by the time they get to the point of actually being able to purchase..they may like it..but may not want to own it. I'm in the same boat..I love a Talbot Lago..but I wouldn't want it in my garage..

 

It's funny how that works. I joined FChat the day after my first encounter with a 360 when I was 16 years old. I'm turning 35 next week.

It's especially so considering living in a place where I can rent anything from a 458 Challenge car for track days, to an F430, SF90 or F8 on the street (or track). When you look at the costs of renting versus owning, depending on usage...it almost looks more attractive. As much as it pains part of me to say. For me and my dream 360, I kick myself for not buying one five years ago. With that, I'm not sure I want it bad enough to spend more than what I feel is appropriate for the car that it is.

 

Peak automobile love in the USA was 2006 based on this chart. But it's still a _very_ large pool even if it shrinks imo. ICE exotics will always have a buyer. At what price is the big question.
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They will indeed have buyers..but as with everything, ownership will come with a price. Parts availability may become scarce as we are now experiencing. Lots of the older CIS injected cars..not just Ferrari, are getting more difficult and expensive to keep alive as the years pass. Bosch doesn't supply any major components anymore..so fresh gas and driven often will reduce potential failures of the fuel systems.

Once these companies go full electric..they may drop out of the vintage parts business..or scale back production and charge stupid money for parts. We shall see..but it is not looking too good at this point.

 

Our only hope here is that 3D printing will improve enough to make the issue of producing vintage parts obsolete.

 

I'm sure it will for none structural components. Little plastic bits and interior trim are ideal for that. But I'm not sure I would trust major components just yet..ie ring gear..gearbox parts..suspension components etc. Maybe one day..lets hope.

 

I made this part almost completely with 3D printing.

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The pipes are aluminum and machined with a CNC. The rubber sleeve is the part I made with 3D printing. The mold was designed in Fusion 360 and the mold parts printed with a Prusa MK3S+.

Here are the parts of the mold:
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The darker parts were 3D printed. The larger pieces in the back are the mold case, the greenish cylinder is the plug (model) to make the urethane mold, the urethane cylinder in front of it is the mold for the interior of the adapter, and the smaller box is an opposite plug to cast the mold for the interior of the adapter. It worked out great and I run these in my 360. My throttle bodies crapped out and no more are available so it was this or buy used ones on eBay. Now, I can use Porsche throttle bodies ($150 each) on my 360. That's groovy.

So this is an example of exactly what you were asking about.

 

i wonder what the graph for the average price of cars looks like. Probably close match

 

Stuff like this is pretty damn cool and extremely helpful.

 

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here’s one

 

And this. Which is a great reflection of pandemic and post pandemic disparity

That almost $10K difference is big when considered from a lending standpoint.
$10K/70 months (avg loan term) represents almost $1500 additional interest paid over the life of that loan. That’s a lot of money in churn.

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there is no doubt the newer cars have some debt behind them. the older stuff has much less, according to 2 of the bigger collector car dealers/brokers in my area.

 

Bat pista was strong today

 

They are quite the car aren't they..almost too good..

 

I walk my dog around the neighbourhood I grew up in. I walk past the High School and places we’d hang out with our 5.0s talking about what aftermarket thing we were going to get etc. I don’t see a single kid cruising around on a Saturday night like we did. Not one.

 

Yeah, cause here is one of those "adult" high schoolers now...

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I asked my local dealer the question; they said the vast majority of Ferrari's on the street have loans.

 

Well, at least that is a healthy activity

 

Toronto Fcar dealer told me almost 100 percent cash purchase. But makes sense might be HELOCs

 

True enough, leveraging loans against other assets to pay cash, there is no way to know if that occurred or not...certainly that is one way to get a 'long term' loan at a low interest rate!

 

In the U.S dealerships push hard for you to use their financing since they make a fee off it. I could feel the disappointment with my salesman when I told him I wasn't going to use Ferrari financial.

There are many people that have more than enough money to pay cash and use debt though. When rates are cheap, why not? You should have ample opportunities to make a better return with that money somewhere else.

 

pre GFC, GM was making more of financing than car production