California to ban sales of petrol-only vehicles by 2035

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62683260

 

**** California, before they start to worry about fossil fuels, they better figure out a way to get some water. because the state is going to melt into the ground in the very near future. You know what Shakespeare said about lawyers, well you can include politicians as well, good grief.

Big G

 

This is another useless law that's only purpose is to generate headlines. By 2035, there likely won't be any ICE vehicles being built except for special purpose like off-road or heavy duty. So no special law required.

 

Actually, the title of the article is not accurate. Any car that is not zero emission will be banned. That leaves two alternatives: Battery Electric or Hydrogen Fuel Cell.

California has done a pathetic job of rolling out hydrogen fueling stations. So you are stuck with battery electric cars that require about half a million pounds of ore to be mined for precious metals just for one car battery. We are just trading one environmental problem for another. You also have a car that is impractical to travel beyond its range due to long recharge times. Towing is a futile endeavor. Traveling on back roads in California will never be practical, since there is no power there. Battery electric cars are usually charged at night when only about 10% of the electricity is from renewables. So fossil fuels are being burned to charge the EVs. When you look at the exorbitant price of electricity in California, there is almost no savings for energy to the consumer to drive an EV. My electricity rates average $0.33 kWh. It's just continues to go up every year. Finally, when the battery eclipses 10 years or so, the capacity is down so far that the battery needs to be replaced. Typically, the cost of the battery exceeds the value of the car, so the has to be junked.

And what is this all for? Only 6% of all man made carbon dioxide emissions are from cars.

 

I've read the new rules and have actually been emailing with a lawyer at CARB (I am a lawyer) to understand the new rules. Further, I've been trying to obtain any studies conducted by CARB to determine whether the new rules are even feasible.

The law permits up to 20% of cars sold by a manufacturer to be plug in hybrid. Small manufacturers, like Ferrari, are exempt until 2035. Larger manufacturers must start to ramp up zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) in 2026. The law does not apply to used cars and there are no regulations contemplated regarding used cars. So if one were to, for example, buy and register a new Ferrari out of state and import it, that's totally ok. Although, there's nothing stopping them from passing regulations in the future outlawing such conduct.

Here's the phase-in schedule for large (> 4500 cars per year sold in CA) manufacturers:

Model Year Percentage Requirement
2026 35%
2027 43%
2028 51%
2029 59%
2030 68%
2031 76%
2032 82%
2033 88%
2034 94%
2035 and subsequent 100%

Currently, around 10% of all light duty vehicles sold in CA are plug in electric, which includes hybrids.

 

The big question is whether any of this is even feasible. California already has an aging electric grid and has been known to suffer from summer brown outs in certain areas.

About 1.9M new cars are sold per year in CA. In total there are about 16M registered cars in CA and 30M total vehicles.

Assuming that the average ZEV uses 500 KWh per month (probably much higher for SUVs and light trucks), then California will need an additional 4K GWh of additional electricity production capacity (which pretty much has to be solar) by just 2027 and 30K GWh by 2030. Assuming half of all registered cars/light trucks are ZEV, that would require about 48K GWh of additional capacity. But none of this includes commercial trucks. So basically double or triple those numbers to add in trucks. I would guesstimate that if you wanted to turn all cars and commercial trucks into ZEV, that would require around 250-300K GWh of new generation capacity. In other words, you'd have to more than double existing capacity.

The state currently has around 194K GWh of capacity, which of course was built over decades. That includes about 33K GWh of solar capacity that took over a decade to build. Solar capacity is increasing at a rapid pace. It may be feasible to meet the need for additional capacity through solar, but it's extremely aggressive and existing in production and planned developments are woefully insufficient.

But assuming you could build sufficient solar to meet future demand, it seems that California will never be able build transmission capacity and upgrade the grid to handle the new capacity required in the time needed to accommodate the rapid plug in ZEV adoption. California may be able to build new solar plants pretty quickly, but the power is unusable because transmission projects take even longer - on average 13 years! Further, the cost of necessary grid improvements is between $1700 - $5800 per EV! That's $50B - $175B for California alone. Where is that money going to come from?

In order for any of this to work (i) California will have to buy power from out of state (likely coal) and (ii) a very large percentage of future ZEVs will need to be based on a technology other than plug in electric (i.e., hydrogen fuel cell), which doesn't really exist at any scale today.

Further, solar has an intermittency issue. Solar production falls off a cliff at peak hours. As a result, massive battery storage will be needed on a scale that simply does not exist today. Even if you wanted to fire up carbon-based energy production at sunset, it would not be sufficient.

Of course, none of this considers the cost to retrofit multifamily housing to accommodate plug in ZEVs or the cost to build charging networks and retrofit gas stations. The true cost of everything that will need to happen to accommodate 100% ZEV is truly massive, perhaps over a trillion dollars for just California alone.

A few articles worth perusing below if you have an interest:

https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/experts-say-significant-grid-investments-needed-to-phase-out-gas-powered-vehicles-in-california/?taid=630815085b2a660001ad49f1
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/08/25/heres_california_flooring_it_to_the_clean_energy_future__with_its_transmission_slipping_badly_849556.html
https://www.tanc.us/news-article/how-long-does-it-take-to-permit-and-build-transmission-to-meet-californias-policy-goals/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-adoption-behavioral-changes-101718236.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-set-to-approve-rules-to-ban-gasoline-powered-cars-by-2035-11661457578?mod=hp_lead_pos13

 

Did I also mention that CA has a plan to phase out all carbon energy production by 2045?

 

There is actually an issue with this. California considers any vehicle with less than 7500 miles to be a new car, and be certified to meet California emissions standards.

Buying a Vehicle From Out of State

– Can You Register It in California? The Bottom Line If you are a California resident and acquire a new car, truck, or motorcycle from another state, it must be certified to meet California smog laws to be registered in California. This includes certain diesel-powered vehicles. The Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) cannot accept an application to register a vehicle in California that does not qualify for registration (California Health and Safety Code §§43150 – 43156).

What Is Considered a New Vehicle? California considers any vehicle with less than 7,500 miles on the odometer at the time of purchase or trade by a California resident or business, to be a new vehicle. This is true whether or not the vehicle has been registered in another state.

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/uploads/2020/03/ffvr29-1.pdf

 

True. That's not a problem now because nearly all cars sold are 50 state certified. But I could see that being an issue in the future. Of course, there's always Montana! Ha.

 

Additionally CA has its share of power outages. I can’t imagine what it will be like when a significant number of EVs are in service, the current grid just will not be able to handle it. CA wants to waste $$ on a bullet train that will never get completed rather deal with the water issues and updating the electric grid.

 

California asks residents not to charge electric vehicles, days after announcing gas car ban

https://www.mystateline.com/news/nat...g-gas-car-ban/

“Today, most people charge their electric cars when they come home in the evening — when electricity demand is typically at its peak,” according to Cornell University’s College of Engineering. “If left unmanaged, the power demanded from many electric vehicles charging simultaneously in the evening will amplify existing peak loads, potentially outstripping the grid’s current capacity to meet demand.”

 

None of this will likely go into actual effect until most of us (I'm 35) are one foot in the grave, because the electrical infrastructure required to even make this possible, won't exist. I don't think most people understand just how massive of an improvement we need RIGHT NOW, let alone in years time to mandate 100% of new vehicles being sold as EV's. Anyone else get emails from their power company during heat waves about regulating your thermostat during the day to save the grid?

It's a complete joke. This entire subject.

 

CA resident here. Not only are they asking us not to plug in our cars. We got emergency notifications last night to not do laundry or run dishwashers either. Our grid is not even close to being able to handle this. And the studies on the land it would take to add enough solar/wind are sobering (and make it a virtual impossibility).

The only sane thing they did on this front is extending the life this morning on our one remaining nuclear power plant at Diablo Canyon. If they are serious about this EV law they will need at least 4-6 additional nuclear plants to support it. To have those built in time they better be announcing them real soon.

But they won't. Because actually creating reliable, clean power infrastructure doesn't grab headlines for Newsom like banning ICE vehicles.

 

The number of nuke plants they need for 100% EV is actually 10x that number.

 

I wouldn't be so sure that grid issues will stop them. CARB is neutral on what type of ZEVs are sold. BEVs are clearly not going to work. So the only real option will be hydrogen fuel cell.

You're all going to be driving Marais!

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We have been regularly been having power outages for many years where I live in CA. So a couple of years ago we got a serious generator which will run everything in our house (I don’t have an EV to charge), 20 seconds after the power goes out the generator automatically kicks in and we happily keep rolling along.

 

Canary in a coal mine.

 

This requirement is a joke. The electrical grid is nowhere near what the country needs to have EVs in almost every garage. California is already asking residents to lower their A/C!

When are the new power plants coming, how many? Europe is absolutely crazy with their requirements too.

I’m routing for the synthetic gasoline that Porsche and others are inventing.

 

Finally some good analyzers chime in with true costs of ev. And the environmental impact to mine the lithium?

Easy solution...move before 2030, thats what we're going to do,and A LOT of other true blood Californians that I know that are fed with this bull****.

 

Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based On False Narratives

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gr...lse-narratives

 

We’ve got solar on the new house, and it’s mandatory for new construction here. No power outages here (yet!) and finished the year in the desert with a ~$700 surplus.

So… yes, it will require an improved grid, but the technology is there if we can invest in the right infrastructure. I’ll hang on to the 911, but look forward to an improved selection of EVs in a few years.


Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat.com mobile app

 

My friends, there is a forum here for that.

Kind regards.

 

It's a bit painful now, but in 4-5 years when your investment is fully amortized, you'll thank yourself and your free energy. Not to mention being off the grid so you don't have to rely on the government. Hopefully, with that money you save, you can buy something nice, another car perhaps?

As for EVs, I'm sure whatever last ICE car that comes out model year 2035 will be enough to satiate that itch for me. Now kids just getting their license this year, sorry folks - I know in your 40s you may not have any options.

 

I don't think we're all clamoring to be Buddhists, that said - there's a forum here for that.

Cheers

 

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