Starting to see a lot more cars on the market

September 2022 data from classic.com suggests that the dollar volume is up, top sale is up, average price is up, # of listings are up, sell through rate is lower by about 11.1%


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Though sample size seems low (perhaps due to low for-sale supply), it’s interesting that 355 market is stable to positive…compared to recent 3-month downward trend of more modern F V8 models.

 

My cars (246, 328 and 512BBi) which I bought in the last 9 months were purely for enjoyment. I am not wealthy and am not a Ferrari guy per se (I like classic cars and would never buy a new Ferrari) but if I were to look at cars as investments then I am a believer in the long game and a flight to quality even in bad times. Besides, life is short and I guarantee we will all die with at least some unspent money.

 

Doug's short update on the falling market in general
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154 Lambo Urus trucks on ebay. More lambos for sale then Honda civics..at 144..

 

This is good.

 

Who would’ve predicted that one day we’d see more of one particular Lamborghini model for sale than Honda Accords? Times have changed.

 

This is just the start. Huracans are next..then 488's

 

Does feel like the music is about to stop.. Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

To me, not really, the SF90 Stradale is not particularly sought after in USA, an average of 80 pre-owned for the past several months on the market, one of the more interesting reasons for owners selling is they do not trust the car or some variation of that (too much power, too many failures, etc).

The BAT result you included simply verifies that reality. Further, if you review all SF90 listings on BAT, the 4 that have sold did so with a final price under $800,000 and in the pre-owned market there are many available under that price, yet, little interest, listings linger and linger. Some are due to owners taking delivery of the SF90 spider.

Then consider the total number of SF90 in USA, maybe it is 300 (comparing to deliveries in EU being more than twice 300), and if so that means 25% or more of total USA production are being put on the market, that is a high number for an Ferrari model.

It will be interesting if the SF90VS occurs and USA dealers require SF90 ownership to order...interesting to see the effect on the pre-owned market, will it matter?

 

Cathie Wood has weighed in on the topic


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1-2 years ago she was the golden child who could do no wrong.... now just another stock picker with a voice. I did well on ARKK, but glad i got out

 

Rising interest rates, inflation etc..obviously has nothing to do with it..it's all people moving to electric..the spin is almost sickening.

 

Cathie Wood’s largest holding is Tesla. We all know electric cars are the future but make no mistake, gas powered sports cars like Ferrari’s won’t be part of the trillion dollar plummet. Electric cars will never be able to replace the sound of gas powered motors. She is no Warren Buffet, a lot more hedges will go under within the next year.

 

This is all good news for me, I hope the bottom drops out of the car market world wide, with all makes and models included, its about ****ing time I can tell you. I dont buy cars as an investment, I buy cars so I can drive them , good grief .

Big G

 

As someone who actually works in the industry (and for the company in the graphic she cites, no less), you could not interpret this data more inaccurately than Cathie Wood.

ICE vehicles have much higher residuals than EVs.

Used inventory is unbelievably low still. You would need mass defaults to create any kind of substantial price drop / snowball effect in the used auto market. To have those defaults, you need a bunch of people to be underwater on high interest rate loans and to lose their jobs. It simply isn't happening.

LTV and loan length both rose over the past few years, but most people locked in these crazy 72/84/96 month loans at historically low rates and unemployment is low. People aren't defaulting at an accelerated rate on vehicles right now or any time soon.

 

Umm..the 2 year leases on the 300k Urus and g wagons are coming home to roost. These folks will not be renewing the lease at 7-10%. They are gonna walk away from that and leave the dealer with a balance owning. High priced sedans and SUV's are NOT moving. Local exotic dealer and highend seller has not sold a car over 200k in a month. Consignments are on the way up..watch for inventory to get stale.

Cars and toys go with housing. Home prices on the way down..interest rates on the way up..along with everything else..guess what goes first. More Urus for sale on ebay then civics..

 

None of that is relevant to the Cathie Wood tweet re: EVs.

Lease returns don't result in a balance owed for the dealer. 144 Uruses (Urii?) on eBay doesn't mean that marketwide inventory is coming back. You are talking micro-micro-micro trends in a 40MM used vehicle per year industry.

 

Hear hear!

 

If a person turns in a lease, the dealer doesn’t have to eat anything. The dealer has an opportunity to either keep or kick a lease turn-in. The financial impact gets pushed to the manufacturer not the dealer. They will simply wholesale the car to a franchise only dealer auction at a substantial less value. Even the manufacturer won’t feel any loss. They made out like a bandit on the lease.

 

Cathie Woods needs to be locked up. She is a menace to society, particularly to those young skullfull of mush.

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Yep! Parts and labor to build a new Urus is easily less than $30K. On a 3 year lease they've collected 6 times that.

 

Not sure if it can be that low at $30K cost per car with everything accounted for but Lamborghini unit margin is $104,370 per car while Ferrari still leads in profitability by making $106,078 per car. So unless the car's value is $100K underwater no one is losing money.

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/lamborghini-over-100000-profit-per-car-in-latest-financials

 

What is MM?

 

She is not the only charlatan in high finance. There is a small army of them.