812 Replacement Rumors | Page 87 | FerrariChat

812 Replacement Rumors

Discussion in '12Cilindri' started by Thecadster, Jun 29, 2021.

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  1. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,591
    Austin TX
    Hmm...

    From the link provided:

    # # #

    Electric vehicles are "expected to cost as much" as petrol and diesel cars within half a decade, according to experts.

    # # #

    what "experts"?

    Richard Falconer, Managing Director of Co Wheels said costs were “bound to decrease” in the next few years.

    He said: “The price tag of electric vehicles is bound to decrease significantly in the next few years.

    “Between 2025 and 2027, they are expected to cost as much as ‘standard’ petrol and diesel.

    # # #

    this is a propaganda/junk article, there is no research, there are no "experts"

    just guessing and the persons guessing have this in their "about us" section:

    Co Wheels has become the UK’s largest community interest car club operator. We now operate pay-as-you go car clubs, pool car fleet management and franchise operations in over 60 towns and cities across the UK with a 24/7 call centre.

    # # #

    Apparently not affiliated with any research organizations
     
    annie dsouza, jpalmito and Eilig like this.
  2. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 31, 2001
    4,232
    Full Name:
    Tänzelndes Pferd
    You should temper your confidence w/reality of EXTREME HIGH production costs of synthetic fuels. (i.e. infeasible)
     
    gzachary, mepassione and JTSE30 like this.
  3. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 31, 2001
    4,232
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    Tänzelndes Pferd
    Anyone with a camera, mic, and Youtube channel today is an "expert"
     
    rumen1, gzachary, Bundy and 3 others like this.
  4. jpalmito

    jpalmito F1 Veteran

    Jun 5, 2009
    8,282
    Le caylar (France)
    Full Name:
    mathieu Jeantet
    Prices won’t decrease because batteries price won’t decrease due to the limited factor of cobalt and others components ressources.
    Simple as that.
     
    JTSE30, 430jm and VegasGreek like this.
  5. Senad

    Senad Formula Junior

    May 14, 2019
    476
    Kuwait
    Full Name:
    Sanad Alibrahim
    we use to play with battery operated cars, then drove some of them,
    waiting to grow so that we drive a car with an engine.
    Now we are driving cars with an engine, waiting to drive cars on batteries, again.
    Isn't it ironic .
    i know for sure it is sad.
     
    Bundy and jpalmito like this.
  6. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,591
    Austin TX
    https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/the-lithium-supply-crunch-doesnt-have-to-stall-electric-cars

    Shortfalls in lithium production are expected as soon as 2025...

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    Two factors are behind the expected shortfall. First, the amount of lithium extracted from deposits around the world is projected to fall well short of demand. Second, the capacity for refining the mineral into the chemicals used in lithium-ion batteries is heavily concentrated in a handful of countries. Major disruptions, whether due to geopolitical events, natural disasters, or another pandemic, could put the entire battery supply chain at risk.

    Dramatically increasing production will be challenging. One reason is that conventional lithium mining can pose a number of environmental hazards, such as soil and groundwater contamination. The technologies and processes currently used in lithium extraction require vast amounts of water, a serious drawback in arid regions. As a result, mining projects have faced opposition on environmental grounds in countries such as Portugal, Serbia, and the US. And while the discovery of large new lithium deposits could change the supply dynamics, environmental issues would still likely have to be addressed.
     
    wrs, Bundy, Eilig and 1 other person like this.
  7. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
    944
    Full Name:
    Passione
    The way i read this article if prices of electric cars will decrease “relative” to petrol cars hence why it’s tricky. While electric cars are now more expensive than petrol cars my view is that as we approach the ban petrol cars will become more expensive hence reducing the price gap between them and electric cars to allow politicians to say electric cars are getting cheaper. In reality all cars will become more expensive both petrol and electric but petrol car prices will rise faster. If that makes sense…
     
    wrs likes this.
  8. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,591
    Austin TX
    #2159 JTSE30, Nov 1, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2022
    The only reason BEVs will be less expensive that ICE-only cars is supply and demand, as manufacturers start lowering production of ICE the prices will increase because demand will remain, and with fewer available, prices, at least on the re-sale market, will necessarily increase.

    Remember, BEVs are useless for a very large number of persons and that will never change.

    However, the reality I believe will be realized years before 2030 is BEV sales are not sufficient due to lack of demand and the manufacturers (who just 'won' by eliminating Euro 7...) will actually maintain or even increase ICE production (non-hybrid), and with pending material shortages, BEV prices will increase.

    This link is fuzzy because it incorrectly combines hybrid and BEV, excluding China as it is a unique market for many reasons, but may be useful:

    https://theicct.org/2022-update-ev-sales-us-eu-ch-aug22/

    Here's a chart I edited to only show BEV in USA and Europe, notice USA "growth" is sluggish, demand is not there...the chart below is cumulative, not amount per year, but cumulative...

    Image Unavailable, Please Login

    by the way, we have a VERY LONG way to go to have as many BEVs as the current number of active ICE ...270 million BEVs in USA and 270 million BEVs in Europe (probably will never ever reach those levels)
     
    Eilig likes this.
  9. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula 3

    Jan 17, 2016
    1,486
    We are being played. It is as simple as that. The last of … have been hearing this from car and motorcycle manufacturers forever…but the replacements end up being better than the last of vehicles in most cases.
    As for ICE vs BATs: expect the same thumb of government that is tipping the scales in favor of electricity over oil by limiting supply and explosive cost of petrol to do the same for cars. ICE cars will become more expensive to match the cost of BAT (EV)cars. Don’t expect BAT cars to get cheaper like what happened in computers and other electronic devices. Government leftists want them as expensive as possible to drive the proletariat into public transportation. Total control is the goal


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  10. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
    944
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    Passione
    This is exactly what I said above that ICE cars will become a lot more expensive and at that point are gonna say ev’s are as expensive or cheaper than ice cars… making this look like a victory. ICE car prices will go up a lot
     
    Caeruleus11 likes this.
  11. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 31, 2001
    4,232
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    Tänzelndes Pferd
  12. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula 3

    Jan 17, 2016
    1,486
    Grumpy Greta, Always on it AOC etc only know two ways to interact with other humans- with righteousness and anger. They know little or no joy and consider the glass half empty at best.
    Life wasted.
    I dare say everyone on this site is the opposite (even the naysayers!)


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
    008, kane00, Bundy and 3 others like this.
  13. U-Boat Commander

    U-Boat Commander Formula 3
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 7, 2008
    1,334
    USA
    This is not correct. Any state is allowed to follow California's standards pursuant to the Federal Clean Air Act.
     
  14. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,591
    Austin TX
    my comment was framed that other states cannot petition the EPA to set their own standards, however, other states are allowed to implement California's standards as long as they are identical to the EPA approved petition for California:

    https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations

    State Adoption of California Standards
    The Clean Air Act allows other states to adopt California’s motor vehicle emission standards under section 177. Section 177 requires, among other things, that such standards be identical to the California standards for which a waiver has been granted. States are not required to seek EPA approval under the terms of section 177. EPA issued guidance (CISD-07-16) regarding its cross-border sales policy for California-certified vehicles; this guidance includes a list and map of states that have adopted California standards, specific to the 2008-2010 model years.

    The Clean Air Act also allows other states to adopt California’s nonroad vehicle or engine emission standards under section 209(e)(2)(B). Section 209(e)(2)(B) requires, among other things, that such standards be identical to the California standards for which an authorization has been granted. States are not required to seek EPA approval under the terms of section 209(e)(2)(B).
     
  15. Solid State

    Solid State F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Feb 4, 2014
    10,718
    Full Name:
    Maximus Decimus Meridius
    The fact that all publicly derived transportation technology roadmaps lead to mass transit and autonomy regulated by a central government is well documented. All 'cities of the future' have this theme in common. Electric motor-driven cars are only a small step on the roadmap.

    But government can't do this by themselves. It is industry driven by profits that is required to get there. Look at 4G/5G/6G... Consumers get attracted to technology and welcome, even demand, the change such as eliminating ICE. Frogs in a boiling pot. Perhaps too deep a drift for the F12 section but the ultimate destination for Ferrari's business evolution.
     
    Caeruleus11 and day355 like this.
  16. j09333

    j09333 Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    May 7, 2004
    1,339
    We have to teat ourselves as minority. Possibly less than 10% of total drivers who really even cares how the car drives.

    So, for the most people, they don’t care. If the car is driven by computers and cars are interconnected so the traffic jam is long gone history and the once roads are now an open space for trees and benches and broader walking surface, then we will no longer care for ICE v12s anymore.

    Future is comming no matter what.

    I will drive my car as much as I can before these changes. Hopely I might have 10 more years to enjoy. Then I will move to small town to enjoy some more before I get too old to drive :)


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  17. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula 3

    Jan 17, 2016
    1,486
    When you get too old to drive hire a driver to drive you in your Ferrari - maybe LeClerc will be available by then?[emoji4]


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  18. Shack

    Shack F1 Rookie
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    May 2, 2005
    2,646
    Earth
    I don't want to start a debate here but surely the below (extract - those in the know can confirm the data) should be made more available so people can make up there minds if they are being played. Maybe science has got better but it seems facts don't count only rhetoric.

    Image Unavailable, Please Login

    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  19. jpalmito

    jpalmito F1 Veteran

    Jun 5, 2009
    8,282
    Le caylar (France)
    Full Name:
    mathieu Jeantet
  20. LMH

    LMH Karting

    May 5, 2019
    205
    Spain
    My opinion is the same as yours based on the sound and non stickers of the “Roma” mule in the pics/videos, but my dealer told me yesterday the car is already finished in Maranello and he believes it will be like the SF90: V8 hybrid

    Time will tell
     
  21. Condor Man

    Condor Man F1 Rookie
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    Sep 8, 2006
    4,938
    Los Angeles
    I think the only saving grace is that they chose to put a v12 in the PuroSangue for a 2 year limited run.

    They may do this too for the replacement 812.


    May the Horse be with you
     
    LMH likes this.
  22. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
    944
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    Passione
    Very interesting a few dealers i spoke to think it might be another na v12 ( although one said ferrari themselves don’t know) and one other source of mine told me the same. Like you said time will tell i guess no one knows.
     
    LMH likes this.
  23. mepassione

    mepassione Formula Junior

    Aug 17, 2019
    944
    Full Name:
    Passione
    Are we sure the na v12 in the purosangue will only last two years?
     
  24. Condor Man

    Condor Man F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Sep 8, 2006
    4,938
    Los Angeles
    Yes.

    Limited production run of 2 years only.

    At least this is what I was told when I ordered mine.


    May the Horse be with you
     
    mepassione likes this.

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