New technologies to keep ICE for decades. What do you think?

Actually CO2 neutral. It still pollutes (NOx, particulates etc), since it burns.

 

Good news.

Regardless, I believe ICE will still be produced, especially from low-volume manufacturers, for more than a decade. Limited lineup sure, but still made.

 

I read that article as well. Very familiar with the subject, I have to be.

The primary challenge will be infrastructure to support the slew of EV’s coming by 2025. The grids are already at capacity (rolling blackouts in CA) and EVERY dealer now needs to connect to the grid (multiple level 3 chargers required) AND the future charger situation is bleak between cost, volume, profit and their current failure fate. BTW many women will not use them at night already due to wait time, etc…

Read about the HUGE carbon (specifically carbon) cost of actually making a lithium battery (90% which come from CHINA who obviously is not environmentally compliant). Factor in the impact of the growing demand for cobalt and where and how THAT comes from. BTW if you flip lease EV’s consider the environmental cost of having a new vehicle built from scratch for you every 4 years.

We are a bit ahead of our ski’s on EV’s but they are great to virtue signal.

 

yes.

 

ICE will be used for decades even without the promising new technology-

But cool it is happening

 

ICE will be with us for a long time.

 

ICE probably has another 20 years as a mainstay daily driver technology, regardless of carbon capture or other band-aid technologies to prolong it. There are just too many mass market cars to assume they’ll all wear out before 2040-2050.

I would guess petrol will cost a lot more as fewer new cars guzzle the stuff. Even with hybrids, the market for it is going to shrink. Collector cars will probably be around far longer, but fuel will be an expensive, boutique purchase.

I suspect consumers will go with EVs for the obvious advantages — low maintenance, outperform high end sports cars, avoid high pump prices, recharge at home. In California, a lot of homes have solar, so electricity is basically free. Tesla is huge here — very common. Still waiting for a great EV affordable to the average buyer, but I think it’s only a matter of time.



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Remember, amongst other reasons, raw material supply constraints will ensure EVs remain a production minority forever.

So, you are saying that the existing ~600m cars(small trucks) in use (only for EU and USA) will be replaced by EV, when? Remembering that even the most aggressive predictions are maybe 20m BEV per year production, and, actually, excluding what is consumed within China, far less than 10m per year, it will be never when 600m BEVs exist at the same time (i.e. 60 years to replace once...)

Not even touching the fire hazards and how BEV will eventually be banned from all parking garages, as it would only take one thermal runaway to take down the entire structure.
see what is happening now...

https://www.google.com/search?q=bev+garage+fire+structure+damage

 

Expect 1/2 of all North American production to be BEV’s from the domestic OEM’s by 2030.

 

Hard to predict, but if you assume the battery of 2035 is the same as the battery of 2022, then you may be right about resource constraints. If technology advances, then we don’t really know.

As far as fire, I’m sure you’re aware that gasoline is dangerous. Inflammable and toxic, both vapors and liquid. It’s also a bit of a mess to extract, refine and transport. We’re just fortunate the business is run by nice folks over in the Middle East.


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Not hard to predict, battery charlatans are all over, but, still is only one primary chemistry that is used, has lithium as its basis, and, if anything, by 2035 the density will increase and that will result in an even more powerful fire when it occurs...

Completely unlike gasoline fires, which are readily extinguishable, BEV's only extinguish when all matter is gone, until then temperatures over 1000F can rage for weeks (see Felicity Ace), and HF (hydrogen fluoride) is an extremely dangerous gas that will efficiently liquefy your lungs. It is the long lasting high temperature burn that will take down any building structure.

for instance:
https://insideevs.com/news/608898/hyundai-kona-ev-fire-quebec-city/

https://www.investigatetv.com/2022/09/26/ignition-spontaneous-electric-vehicle-fires-prompt-recalls-some-owners-stalled-waiting-repairs/

even an e-bike (regular bikes has no energy source...) can take down a structure:
https://centraloregondaily.com/bend-garage-fire-e-bike-charging/

even when the BEV did not start a fire, if it becomes involved, the situation becomes much worse
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/fire-destroys-lynnwood-home-causes-teslas-explode-driveway/YGRV3YW4ANA4VDCVU6L2I4FDAY/

more details:
https://maritimesafetyinnovationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Academic-A-review-of-battery-fires-in-electric-vehicles-2020.pdf

Also, BEVs most often catch fire while being charged, that is, not in motion, such as can occur in a parking garage. Most gasoline car fires occur while in motion/being used.

 

I wanted to separately reply to this as it is a completely different topic.

The middle east petroleum production is substantial, but, not essential. For instance, California spends billions a year buying petroleum from foreign countries (mostly middle east), but, there is no reason to do so, as California has its own substantial petroleum reserves, and due to substantial regulatory interference, additional reserves are not being investigated.

And, the US+Canada have very substantial petroleum reserves, so many regulatory blockades diminish its realization.

Whereever you are right now, look around, try to find anything that did not benefit or directly involve petro-chemical industry to exist. Every BEV has tires, plastic, petroleum-based fluids throughout, even in the battery pack, anodes use synthetic graphite, made from petroleum and coal...
https://www.gab-neumann.com/Impervious-graphite-manufacturing-process

Please understand, if all petroleum use ceased, the modern world would as well.

 

It’s not hard to predict at all.

It is literally the product plan.

Good or bad.

 

I disagree with this part of your post. Demand will will be significantly reduced, but most likely the supply will continue to be there. In 2040 I could see 93 octane at 70 cents per gallon (just a SWAG ).

 

The only way that could occur is if the vehicle is smaller, lighter, driving style (i.e. hypermiling) etc, the energy density of the battery pack may increase (i.e. hold a larger charge), but in no way does that result in less energy being required to move the vehicle...that will remain fairly constant with only very small improvements.

 

Agree but … you’re giving an accurate account of the Way Things Have Been.

Remember, gasoline was a useless byproduct until ICE got a boost from Rockefeller and Standard Oil. Now we kill people to get it more cheaply, and everything is plastic.

NiCAD batteries were the standard rechargeable for a while… until they weren’t.

Diesel was the answer to passenger car efficiency… until it wasn’t.

Is lithium-ion the battery for the next 50 years? I doubt it.

No crystal ball, but with what appears to be a huge corporate shift to EVs we will almost certainly see significant advances. I wouldn’t mind cheap petrol, given the way my car inhales the stuff, but unless we see clean, economical synthetic fuels (Porsche is working on this) I doubt future generations are going to buy into our yestertech mobility. Given that most of us here are enthusiasts for European marques, I think we need to be paying attention to the EU, and less focused on where to drill for cheaper oil.



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Where to drill/frack/etc for oil is the ONLY solution, period. Without low-cost plentiful oil, civilization as we know is over.

Remember batteries only store energy whereas oil is energy, huge difference.

As for gasoline being a useless byproduct, long long ago only because kerosene was the goal (which replaced whale oil in lamps). The oil industry now realizes the importance of utilizing all of its inputs...

Diesel remains the #1 (FOREVER #1) answer to efficiency, only VW shenanigans (and EU regulations) disrupted that (only for personal transport), Diesel remains (in all its forms) the #1 heavy transport fuel, ships, trucks, trains, etc. There is no changing that with batteries, ever.

Nothing as useful as lithium has appeared yet (weight, form factor, etc), I am certain it will remain in widespread use for a long time.

As for "paying attention to the EU", never, they are the graveyard of terrible ideas and manipulation. They have it almost always all wrong, but, you need to remember, they do not want to be 'right', their goals are not to be right but to control and that is why I write, 'never' to following their lead.