When is the world economy going to tank ?

It may well be, however on what measure though?

 

proof .

 

But this is where I think your first post on this subject falls down a bit - all the problems you note in China are ACKNOWLEDGED by them and they have long term plans to deal with many of them (eg a few years ago they introduced easy visas for aged care workers from places like the Phillipines etc). On the other side of the ledger, the USA is still wedded to fossil fuels and is way behind in taking up renewables; not to mention that they no longer control prices since Russia, China and Opec are trading oil in their own currencies. Also note that the new chip factories being built are in part due to government incentives to build in particular places, NOT free market forces.
Bottom line is that China produces, US consumes... which side of that equation is the wealth builder?

 

Firstly, the property crisis can't be solved if the population implodes - I know first hand as I've seen it in Japan. They also allow easy visas for Filipino age car workers. Property was very cheap when I was there last in 2010. Hasn't changed much as far as I'm aware.

Secondly, the Chinese are far more wedded to fossil fuel than the US - it imports 80% of its energy - so it can't be solar or wind they're importing - anyway, the 'green' technology is still far away from being able to supply a reliable base load - again Karen - its about geopolitics - America has some of the best geography for renewable energy. Look at Texas - ironic that once the key source for America's oil is now the key source for renewable energy, especially solar and wind. Renewables account for 30% of the state's energy despite issues regarding its reliability. Slowly, they will address this. If any country can really go 'green', its the US. And that's because of geography. And look at the innovation for renewables in California (and the problems associated with it). Next thing you will be saying is that the Chinese invited the electric car, solar panels and wind farms.

Thirdly, of course China has an incentive to try to use renewable - remember it imports 80% of its energy. Sadly, as the rolling black outs have shown due to the droughts in China, renewable energy has it limits (at the moment). China can't survive without globalization, something that the US created in the 50's as a deal with nations to fight the cold war. There's a line in the movie Madagascar about not biting the hand that feeds you. Btw Karen, when do plan to convert your Ferrari to electric power and stop all that pollution coming from the carbs? Do you turn off the lights early to save on electricity? Do you reduce your overseas trips to a bare minimum to reduce your carbon footprint?

Fourthly, I didn't know that the price of crude was quoted in rubles or yuan or dinar? Last I looked, it was in USD.

Apologies if I seem a bit heavy handed with all this - we all look forward to a greener future but if we aren't careful, we can face some critical food and energy shortages in the future and will undo all the good work so far towards a sustainable economy.

When the next food or energy shortage comes along and millions live in black outs or hunger, do we blame the governments or the people that voted the short sighted politicians because they were short sighted themselves?

P.S
Because China is so wedded to imported dirty polluting energy, it makes defeating China in a conventional war very easy - just put a blockade of destroyers in the Indian ocean (as the oil comes from the Middle East) and the lights go out very quickly in China and millions die. Yes, so much for it being ahead of the USA.

 

And a blockade on Australian coal ..up to 70% of China's energy comes from coal . (over 1,100 coal fired power plants)

I've always been happy to put money into quality American brands ....Chinese err NO.

Looking forward to aunty's response once she is back from the Coolum SC ..tanked ?

 

Karen is alright and I like she puts her beliefs, especially on a forum that is male dominated and a bit right of centre.

In fact, she should be applauded for her efforts and I hope she continues posting.

I don't always agree with her but civilized people share thoughts and opinions. I admire her tenacity.

 

Sorry anyone who in one sentence mentions "Cockroachs and the First fleet of 1788" has serious issues ,NO TIME for her or her comments all designed to gain a reaction ..

 

I tend to agree with this. Even though Karen has - more than anybody - occasionally made me want to scream in frustration, I like the fact that she is prepared to put her view forward even knowing it’s not likely to be popular here.

Actually, that makes her behaviour here a lot like what being a conservative in the wider world is like…

I think this place is richer with some diverse and provocative views, and I include those that are no longer here, FWIW.

The key is to do it respectfully. Well, as respectfully as you can, anyway.

 

The China property situation is different from Japan in the 80s; not because it’s all peachy (it’s certainly not) but because more properties are owned by YOUNG people, not the old; also the actual purchasers are not so debt laden - young people in China are savers and have decent deposits; in the rural areas it’s not uncommon for people to save the whole price of a flat before purchasing. There is also a reasonable ‘ladder’ of property in China - a lot more ‘starter’ or ‘affordable’ flats than in Australia.
No intergenerational mortgages such as in Japan.
I don’t know where you get the 80% of fuel is imported figure - see here (note the source of the info):https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN
Re oil transactions - all we see here is oil prices quoted in dollars, but look a bit further and you’ll find China and Russia trading in yuan/rubles and several of the ME exporters accepting yuan. (There’s a whole thread on this in Fchat B&I). You do know RioTinto is paid in yuan for Aussie iron ore these days?
China started way behind the rest of the world in the 80s but they are moving so quickly people can’t comprehend it, they will get to clean energy dominance before most of the western world (Scandi excepted).
BTW, all good with these exchanges - always happy to learn something new.

 

So China is building 43 new coal fired power plants this year , well over 1,100 COAL fired power plants in total!

Importing just on 281 million tons of coal !

Sure there catching up re clean energy dominance ?

Chinese GHOST cities .
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****s me, the dude selling the business through some sale company said he was the CEO of Red Rooster for 7 years and he said it sold the most rooster rolls.

Nah, the ex-CEO said it turns the most money over and Mount Isa was always in the top 5 also, normally sits at #3 for sales Australia wide.

I asked why does the store in Charters Towers have the most sales Aus wide and he said because there is no other fresh chicken option there, so it dominates the market lol

They have Maccas and Subway, no KFC or other chicken joints there.

 

Awesome, looking forward to finishing my mining career in coal mining.

 

Too funny in CHINA stacking the coal blocks into the furnace?

 

True,closed many years ago.....I know 'cos you complained to me about it when you visited back then!!

 

Silver, gold and guns/ammo (in the states, obv).

 

good to know .

 

Greg reckons , there is a huge valuable client base for OUR snuff movies!

 

I’d love to go and help them.

 

One way of getting rid of you ..

 

Hi Karen,

I'll get the stats for you latter tonight (sorry, deadlines atm and I'm still working) but even using the eia.gov website (which uses data from BP), over 75% of oil is imported, over 50% of gas is imported etc - I'm just trying to find a reliable (actually any) credible figure for % of coal imported, esp as these figures are changing due to fall in hydro generation as a result of the drought etc, which has seen a large increase of coal imported.

In the meantime, watch this - and tell me Peter Zeihan isn't prescient - you hear it and to me at least, it tallies with my understanding of economics, demographics and geopolitics - again, lets see if it unfolds as he suggests.

 

Over 200 million tons P/A
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China leading the way in CLEAN energy ..
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Interesting article -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/china-coal-climate-change-xi-energy/

"On Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang confirmed a goal of 300 million tons of new coal production capacity in 2022, up from 220 million tons added last year. In March, Chinese miners dug out more coal per day than ever before. Earlier this month, the government of Ordos city, a coal-extraction powerhouse in Inner Mongolia, approved plans to tap a 2 billion-ton coal-reserve spread across 65 square miles with expected output of 15 million tons per year."

Never mind we will close our mines and save the planet

 

China has been ‘saving’ their extensive coal resources while they bought up cheap supplies from elsewhere (notably Australia). Using more of their own now is either A) an economic decision or B) a supply decision (ie they think they have more than enough now for the future needs).