Ferrari F40 market analysis

I recently put something together that I think the browsers of this forum might like. I often see debate here on the values of Euro vs. US F40s, high mileage vs. low, cat/adjust status, and so on. I create market reports for various sports and classic cars and my latest free report is on the F40, with all these factors covered and more.

https://datadriven.autos/market-analysis/ferrari-f40/

I plan to keep this updated. I have a part 2 coming out after Amelia Island with some additional features covered. If there's anything else people would like to see added for that update, let me know.

Andrew
Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

Thanks for this! Going to take some time to get through this information...

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

 

Thank you for the effort and analysis, Andrew. Great contribution.

 

thanks for this Andrew.
can you tell us your data sources?

 

Nice work and thanks for the input and publishing it here.

The problem with averages on these cars is that there are simply not enough sales for them to be indicative of the market, plus very few of the sales are like for like with regards miles, history etc etc.

This weekend was a great example of another rare car I follow and used to own, the RS500 Cosworth, good low miles examples trade in the £100 to £120k bracket in the last few years, this weekend at Silverstone auctions, a good (but not the best, there are even nicer ones out there) bid to £530k plus fees, so close on £600k!

Does this mean the ones that sold for £120k in recent times are now half a million pound cars overnight, no not at all, just a case of two bidders with deep pockets who did not want to give up. Apparently it was all over at £300k then the other bidder got a second wind.

 

the RS500 Cosworth really shows that the hype for old petrol cars still is very much alive!

 

Andrew,

Thank you not only for the effort you've put into your data-driven F40 market report, but also for this thread, we lok forward to regular updates and I'll be happy to share my not inconsiderable proprietary data as much as my principals will allow.

At a glance, your data clearly shows what we've always seen in the market as regards USA cars bringing significantly more than European cars which makes sense as there are only 211 of them versus 1,100 Eu cars, that said the latter are hugely popular.

I'm looking forward to the updates of the next 3 auction cars:

https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/am23/amelia-island/lots/r0035-1991-ferrari-f40/1326337

https://www.classic.com/veh/1990-ferrari-f40-zffmn34a0l0086620-Wk2xkzn/

https://www.classic.com/veh/1992-ferrari-f40-zffmn34a3n0092396-WN2lv5W/

As someone who's in the F40 market I'd say that there are more than enough sales of all categories of F40 for the F40 to be pretty well defined as underscored by the market volume.

Meanwhile, can we keep the topic of conversation on F40s as opposed to say Cosworths please?

 

My post was an indication of how averages can be skewed in the classic market with an example of a car from the same era, and despite you thinking this is the Joe Sackey sub forum I do not require your permission to do such.

 

I understand that, but in a Ferrari F40 market analysis thread in the Ferrari Supercars section, a focus on the F40 market is the only relevant way to avoid the classic apples to oranges scenario, in which so many factors apply if you decide to use Ford Cosworths for illustration.

Averages are just that, a middleground representation of the best & the worst, the highs and the lows, the outliers and the subperformers, all arrived at by calculating the median or mean value using actual data of known results so they are true reflection of average values, thus I'm not sure an average can by definition be skewed, so far as we are talking about roadgoing F40s and not something else. Meanwhile, FWIW averages are a useful mark for potential buyers and potential sellers to be able to see to contemplate action.

 

Always have to have the last word!

You are just another contributor on here like the rest of us, and not a moderator, so stop telling many of us what we can and cannot think and write.

 

Relax Paul, my posts are consistently about useful & accurate information which have nothing to do with having the last word or telling anyone what they can & cannot think (which ironically is what you seem to be doing), I asked very politely if we could restrict the conversation to F40s as opposed to Ford Cosworths, which is a fair enough request in a F40 thread, no need to get so upset and go all personal as your way of responding.

Back on topic, a couple of F40s are in process of changing hands and I hope to be able to shed light on the numbers soon.

 

The auction results (and estimates) are effectively all directly from the auction houses themselves. I compile dozens of sources all together into one database that I maintain. The asking prices are regularly sourced from a variety of classifieds including Classic Driver, duPont Registry, justRED, JamesEdition, etc.

Thank you Joe. I'd certainly be interested to see how your private treaty data lines up with the public data. Feel free to contribute whatever you wish/are allowed. I do have some private sales on hand in my database, but for this free, public report I decided to stick with public results.

The three cars coming up at Amelia this week will indeed be featured in the next update.

 

The gift that keeps on giving, you really are tone deaf, your latest condescending reply just clarifies what so many have confirmed to me directly over the years I have contributed to fchat.

Two terms which directly apply to the general heading of this thread should be considered in any discussion:-

“A rising tide lifts all boats”
“Lies, damn lies and statistics”

With this regard the F40 is not unique in the modern classic market, it is not bucking the trend, it is not setting the standard.

The minimal recent sales of such cars, compared to the actual number produced need to be broken down into even smaller subsets, such as

Sliding window, non cat non adjust, (The Holy grail of road versions).
Wind up window, non cat non adjust.
Wind up window, non cat, adjust.
Wind up window, cat, non adjust.
Wind up window, cat, adjust.
US Spec.
Original LM.
Original GTE.

Then even smaller subsets apply to the road cars which include colour, mileage, condition, history etc etc.

Then you have to look at the selling medium, auctions really throw out the figures further still when two bidders get the fever on the day. Classic case is the recent yellow ex race car.

On the basis of the above, no two recent sales would be direct like for like comparisons, roughly similar maybe but not direct.

As anyone with half a brain can see, trying to simply use an average of all these skewing factors is pretty meaningless other than to give a very very rough direction into which the overall market is heading.

To back this up then you need to look at other comparable markets.

In my post I provided an example of another vehicle from the same period (which was actually built in far less numbers). Said vehicle had an impeccable motorsport history (the engine builder is world renowned for the dfv f1 engine/Indycar derivative and also now supplies engines for both the Aston Martin Valkyrie and GMA T50) it’s record is still unbeaten to this day, no other car to the same group A spec in period ever finished ahead of one in its 5 year rein, in fact the rules had to be changed to outlaw the car in the end.

The market for such has followed a similar trend to the F40, that is up until a few days ago. The sale of just one example has now massively thrown out the window the use of averages to value such.

Hence my post in this thread to widen the eyes of anyone reading it.

This is my reasoned view, and as this is an open discussion forum then others of course can have opposing views, which they can similarly back up if they so wish, theirs make mine no less valid however, and as such does not give them the right to tell me or others what we can actually post going forward.

Unlike the resident self appointed expert, an approved moderator on the forum can however intervene at any point, there is a button available which any reader can press to get them involved if they so wish.

 

With such a wide dispersion of variants, and having the cars be 35+ yrs old each car really is its own case some needing help other damaged along the way. The average is meaningless if 10 USA low mile cars come up or if 10 Japanese beat up versions in a row come up with cats/adj. that’s not a very good way to look at this and it’s highly distortive to anyone looking at F40s. They are not all created equal so why lump them so tightly? And if the threads not going to show the stronger private sales here then this thread provides even less of a market analysis. Just my thoughts, carry on.

 

nicely done to the OP.

 

can you show what the analysis look like with the private data?

 

Thank you, dariedell, for sharing your analysis. Tools of analysis and judgements of how to apply those tools are similar whether you are looking at pure commodities or non-commodities. Yes there are more limitations when analyzing price/value trends for a non-commodity such as an F40. That's a given, so I would rather compliment, rather than criticize, the analyst for the effort.

 

Good point about private sales, but I think his data fairly comprehensively covers whatever has come to the open market, and that's all you can do.

 

These comments perplex me, because I created breakdowns in my analysis for exactly these factors.

If there are other factors that either of you (or anybody else) think are important to consider in the value of an F40, I am all ears. As I said in my first post, I have an update coming after Amelia Island (likely in mid-March) which will include several more breakdowns, and I am open to suggestions for other variables that people are looking to see.

Unfortunately no, not in a public report. I am not a broker or dealer of F40s, and so the privileged information I have is not my own, and I (re-)distribute it with discretion. Of the private treaty F40 sales I have over the covered time period in the analysis, narrowed down to the ones I would feel comfortable including in a private, paid report, there are about 6 or 7. Overall, they line up well with the public results and do not change my conclusions.

 

Andrew, you have done some great work, and I hope you keep us updated as more data comes in. My post was never directed at you or your evaluation, it simply was to open up to debate the use of averages in such a small and diverse market as the sales of F40s and went on to provide another model in a similar predicament.

It would have/should have stayed at that.

 

Not sold at Bonhams
Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

thursday 2PM, I'm told the room was empty fwiw.

 

Second that

 

looks like a nice car though!

 

So, the consignor of the F40 that no-saled at Bonhams was on the other side of the table in 2022, when he bought an F40 at Gooding's Friday sale, "when no one was paying attention".

Strange strategy to think the result would be different