C8 Z06

IIRC they are already at ~20 Z06s/day. My guess is the floor will therefore be ~4000 Z06s/year. I suspect they’ll be able to push that to ~6000/year and maintain that for 4-5 years. There is a lot of profit to be made and there was a large investment in the LT6 engine that needs to be recouped no doubt. The E-Ray will likely be similar numbers of production and as a result the Stingray (less profit) will decrease production accordingly as its model run has an approximate 4 year head start. ZR1/Zora will be low volume halo cars and I doubt will impact much on Bowling Green capacity. If they indeed make a Corvette SUV I suspect it will be at a different production facility.

 

I agree... I think ~2000 Z06 cars a year is where it will stay. Most people are thinking that the Eray will be a higher volume car than the Z06. If that is accurate, the Eray may be another 2000 - 3000 cars a year coming down the same production line. People who do not have a low number at a big dealer will likely never get the car ...

Below are my numbers and estimates...
I was ~90 at MacMulkin which is one of the largest dealers and I got my Z06 about a month ago. That was only because half of the people in front of me, are holding out for the Z07 option. If this was a full production year, I would estimate they would maybe get ~125 - 150 allocations.

I have another Z06 allocation at Ciocca which is also one of the largest dealers. I'm at ~500 and I'm guessing I may not see that car for 3-4 MORE years, which is near the end of the likely production run (maybe another couple years left).

Here are my estimates: I f you have a number like 1000+ at one of these top 2 dealers you may never see the car. Likewise if you are like 500 at a dealer other than the top 2 or 3 dealers, you will probably never see the car. If you have a number like 100 at a small dealer, you will never see the car.

Time will tell....

 

I'm number 1 at a smaller dealer (but they did 30 3LT's C8's last year) and I still have no date on the car I haven't even locked my spec in. It's very frustrating.

 

The big three Corvette dealers sell a lot of Corvettes, but supposedly they only account for a combined 8%-10% of total Corvette sales. That leaves a huge amount of inventory for the remaining 3,000 or so dealerships that sell Corvettes in the US. Covid and supply chain issues have put a damper on C8 production so far, but anyone thinking that Chevrolet won't crank out as many as humanly possible is kidding themselves. These aren't low production or hand build cars; there were roughly 40,000 C7 Z06s built, and you can bet that they'll do their damnedest to get as many C8 Zs out there as they can. People are acting like it's going to be impossible to get one and we're not even one full model year in. Eventually, everyone that wants one AND has the means to spend over $100,000 on a Corvette is going to be able to get one.

 

‘23 was an abbreviated year with a slow roll out. They are already making 18-20 Z06s/day (per MECF, highly credible data)…that means they are already capable of making 4000 Z06s/yr (200 work days/year…which is a low estimate given that BG now has added Saturday shifts) currently, so your 2000 number is completely wrong. 4000/year is the LOW estimate; it goes up from there.
GM is not in the business of making low volume exotic cars, they never have been and never will be, they will crank out Z06s until the cows come home, until the fat lady sings…you got your Z06…you won’t be the owner of a rare car.

 

Yep, I'm on MECF and CF and I know they have accurate data. You need look at how many days of 0 production they have had... Talking about what is possible and what is realistic is two different things. When you start factoring in 0s, the average number of cars goes down dramatically. While I'm expecting the number of days of 0 will reduce due to shutdown and supply constraints, I believe the production capacity will be taken up by the Eray.

Just for the record, I never said I have a rare car... My neighbor has 2 Z06s, so yeah it's not rare. However I do disagree that they will be cranking these things out and they will be sitting in the showroom floor with discounts like some have speculated. Hey, but I hope I'm wrong and I'm looking forward to buying another one and not having to wait 3 or 4 more years. If my number comes up sooner, I will be pleasantly surprised.

I would love to hear what dealer you are at, what number you are and when you think you will be getting it (assuming you are getting one, and that's why you are here)?

Please share....

 

I dont think anyone is saying they will be sitting on showroom floors selling at a discount. Although throw in a banking crisis recession and who knows.

Assuming some reasonable economy then the numbers look like this. In 3 years they will have produced 15-20k z06s. If you look at all the lists, assuming no drop offs, that's the current orders filled. There will of course be some drop offs and new orders.

When the c8 came out you couldn't get one even at 30-40k produced per year, now with lower production of stingrays(due to z06 and e-rey) you have balance on the stingray forum and some report getting a car a few k under msrp, so peak year 1 demands never sustains for any mass produced specialty car by year 3 etc. Ffor all its faults on track, the c7 z06 was a commercial success in that they sold a premium vette in relatively big volume.

Imagine the board meeting to approve the c8z06 and its bespoke engine, they were not going in saying were planning on selling less of these than the one before. They had to have been projecting similar numbers at the elevated cost/price to get it approved. Gm is a volume game. ill also bet the original projections for the z06 had a lower price point, gm like oters has had cost increases but also seen that the market will handle more price, so they priced it up building in even more margin. Its a great business, theyll produce as many as they can. And 2 years from now when demand for singtreys has further softened(becase there will eb so many about) and z06 sales are flat, theyll roll out the zr1 which will eb lower volume than the z06 but still probably 2-3k units per year, towards the very end we'll see the plus ultra zora, that will be a relatively rare one.

Gm will therefore keep the production line humming at full capacity with new more expensive and more profitable variants taking up the slack. then the c9 will come out and it will be rinse and repeat.


When the lotus Elsie came out in the usa they sold 2500 in year 1, 6 years later they sold 90. When the 90 zr1 cae out you couldn't get one for love nor money, a few years later they sold only 400. Not saying its going to be anywhere near that drastic for the c8 variants, rather Gm has planned to roll out newer variants as demand inevitably softens for the staples.

porche and ferrari, they're trying to also protect used car prices, and even then their lack of satisfying market demand for their better cars has given rise to mclaren, lambo and now the C8, which is filling market share they could have had. Gm makes money on manufacturing and selling new cars, yes its wise to have a balance and not flood a market, but chronic underproduction just means you lose sales to someone else..

nor will the c8s be rare or particularly collectable(except maybe the zora) because the better c9 will come along on the same platform, so the c8 is not the last of anything. The c8 will be to the c9 as the c6 was to the c6/7.

Where I agree is if the big 3 are 10% of volume, and youre no 1000 on a list. the 10% of 20k cars is 2k cars. If there isa 3k long list at those dealers the math is not that complicated.

 

Yep... This is the problem... The MacMulkin list had over 2500 and the Ciocca list swelled to almost 6000 at one point, but I know it has reduced since then, but probably similar to MacMulkin or slightly higher. Call it 5000 for round numbers. I don't track the 3rd dealer, but let's say they have another 1500 on a list, for a total of 6500 for the top 3. If that represents 10%, then GM would need to build 65,000 Z06s. Will people drop off list and are there people on multiple lists... sure there are. So knock the number down by 15,000 to 50,000. The C7 Z06 model ran for 5 years. Is GM capable to build 10,000 Z06 cars a year? Of course not.... We can argue all we want whether they will be able to build 2000, 3000, or 4000 Z06s and only time will tell. However back to my original point... Many people waiting in line will not get the car.

I lived through all the delays waiting for my base C8... Parts shortages, multiple union issues, COVID, and even a tornado, etc. People were saying that it was cursed and GM mismanaged the entire rollout. So **** happens.... GM would love to sell more Z06 and Z07 option cars, but they can't make them fast enough and I don't think they can make enough based on the simple math above.

 

If I could get a Maserati Cielo I would switch. But I don't think it would come any sooner. So, we wait, and wait, and wait...
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I saw a MC20 on the road the other week and it looked awesome....

 

Bowling Green hasn't sniffed making 40,000 C8's in a year.
2020: 20,368
2021: 26,216
2022: 34,510

Also, I don't see any way that 15K-20K Z06's are going to be produced in 3 years. GM is going to be lucky to produce 2,000 in the first model year. With the 2024 MY comes the eRay, which bites into Stingray/Z06 production.

 

this was posted over in the corvette site, and they are tracking serial numbers etc.
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The initial production and ramp up may have been a f-up.
As one can see, on a roll they're easily able to do 30 cars per day. Multiply that by 2000 days(I believe the plant runs more days than that).
It looks like production will become similar if not higher than the previous z06. I doubt Gm would have greenlighted an all new motor etc if the production numbers were not going to be there.

lets say 6k produced this calendar year and 7-8k next year.

The reality is we read reports now of new stingrays selling at msrp or below in some cases. That market is now in balance, and the total pool of new c8 buyers are upping to a z06 or e-rey. Gms is maintaining market tension and balance, stingray production will of necessity drop to allow for production of new variants and thats fine because that market is now in balance.

We can debate all day long what we think z06 production will be. I think it will now become be 6-8k units per calendar year. On that basis I see premiums disappearing in 24-30 months. My guestimate is the current lists are 15k cars. Some of those are duplicate deposits at multiple dealers. For sure there willa lso be new buyers. But pretty much everyone who knows cars and what this is, and wanted to get their name on a list has. As the list shrinks new buyers will not come on at the same pace and wait times will steadily drop, and with that so will premiums..

Now i could be completely wrong and production wont go past 3k cars epr year, but imo that very unlikely.

Honda civic type r, last year, 20-30k premium on a 45k car. Now you can get one at list if you go online and look nationwide. Honda is producing these cars now in enough volume, as will Gm with the z06..

Bronco Raptor, that's also big premium, but only till they get more production cranked up.

GMs incentive is to produce as many z06s as the market will bare. if its a choice between stingreys and z06s, which one is more profitable for Gm to produce. To your point at 34k vettes per year, theyll produce more e-reys and z06s, and drop stingray production if thats where the most profit is. 20k stingreys and 15k split between e-rey and z06. A lot of e-rey and z06 buyers are from the same pool of c8 buyers, they're just buying a more expensive one, therefore less stingrays are needed..

How many 60k base stingrays did they produce, any, they made more profit on the more expensive versions

Gm is in it for the $ as they should be. the only question is how many z06 motors can they produce. I have a hard time believing they planned for less than the previous model, esp as they have to amortize a new design. Supply and demmand.

 

^^^
No doubt GM didn't "plan" to make less C8 Z06's than C7 Z06's...they also didn't "plan" to make 15,000 less first year C8 Stingrays than first year C7 Stingrays...NO ONE is suggesting that GM is trying to limit the Z06 (or the Stingray for that matter) but the plant has shut down 3 weeks THIS YEAR because of parts shortages. If all was right and they were caught up, it would be 8-10 WEEKS from deposit to delivery on a Stingray. GM is not REMOTELY out of the woods on ANY C8. My luthier went on a Top 15 dealer's list for a C8 Stingray in September 2021...he still doesn't have an allocation.
It is going to end up taking him longer to get his car NOW than it took me to get my 2021, which took 21 months from deposit to delivery.

The chart that was posted on this page assumes NO MORE plant shut downs...so far in 2023, they're averaging ONE week down PER MONTH. That's a lot of cars shoved back into the unbuilt pile and it's not like the plant can make that up with increased line speed.

As far as "stripper" C8 Stingrays (1LT), that NEVER happens with a new generation. The C7 Stingray NEVER fell below 60% ordered 2LT/3LT trim level for the entire generation. My dealer told me that his average MSRP for the 3 MY's so far (C8 Stingrays) is $92,000 MSRP (that's 50/50 mix Coupe/Convertible).

 

You may be rigth, that Gm is a hopelessly lost corporation and cant get their production of desirable products back on track. Kinda like Humpty dumpty.
I hope they can put the pieces back together. But youre right, it is Gm.

 

I didn't say GM is a "hopelessly lost corporation"...you did. I don't think they are.
GM is dealing with the SAME problems EVERY other carmaker is dealing with, post covid.

 

Yes those were my words based on your assumption/predition they couldlnt get z06 prod to prior levels.
If they are dealing with the SAME problems as everyone else, then within 12 months they should be at prior levels.
Ive done manufacturing most of my life, these are all solvable and resolvable. Other companies are already. resolving those issues.
The problems at Gm and few others is corporate culture, a company built over multiple decades of cogs in a machine. A company of professional mamagers following process, and few if any leaders able to solve problems or alter process when situations change.

As an example, while musk is some percentage charlatan, he also makes decisions gets things done. tesla is increasing production rapidly.

i do get that Russia was amajor supplier of things like titanium. But Soth Africa is a major producer too. As with oil, russia production goes to China India and others production should now be going to the west.

Even then, Gm seems to struggle to produce blackwing cadillacs with the supercharged SBC, thats no exotic motor, it cant be materials shortage.

you may be right that Gm cant do it, but it is solvable, and Gm raising problems at this point is an excuse for lack of leadership..

over at mercury marine theyre quoting 52 weeks on many new outboards. Yamha also had production issues during covid, but now yamaha and Suzuki are doing major market penetration cause mercury cant supply.

I think Gm can and will solve the problems, if they dont , then their issues are way deeper than a few z06s.

 

The 2023 MY has been extended to Sept. 1 so I think there’s a good chance that we’ll see 2000+ 2023 Z06’s made.
Also, there’s a thought in this thead that implies Z06 demand is static…that once GM catches up in 2-5 years they’ll be golden. There’s a lit of assumption going on and you know what happens then.

 

I like to look at calendar year production, MY means little other than for "collectors" who get of on minutiae..Seems like well be at 4-6k produced this year.
Demand is defintely not staic. But if there were "lists" in Jan 1 totaling 15 k cars, how long till those 15 k cars are produced, I think 3 years.

Staic is an interesting thing though. Of all the cars on lists how many are duplicate orders? How many will drop out after a 3 year wait cause they moved on.Of those with multiple orders, yeah if premiums remain theyll keep buying and flipping. But once premiums get to 10-20k the incentive disappears due to taxes fees and sheer hassle for little gain..

What is certain, is that if you could get on a list now, youre looking at a 3-5 year waitor maybe never as some say. However 3 years from now 15-20k cars later and a newer betetr zr1 etc, maybe its only a 6 month wait. The bloom goes of the rose quick.

Credit will egt squeezed, there will be more new gotta have it cars, including new c8 variants. Once premiums abate, those with e-reys wont be looking at z06s cause theyll not want to loose on the e-rey.. Lots of retired folks will have moved on for trinkets etc
.
With only 1700 cars produced so far, premiums are already down into the 40's(except for z07).A year from now, two years from now when theyre are 10k or 15k of these cars out there? Seems like premiums to the extent they exist wont make flipping worthwhile. meanwhile yes some dealers will be charging premiums because given the average age of vette buyers a big percentage wont be searching the net nationwide and will be at the mercy of their local dealer.

I'll be happy with my 26 z06, by then any bugs and foibles etc should have been worked out. I dont care about whether its the first or last, or has some plastic anniversary badge with decal stripes. Mines going to get used, hard on road and track. If it gets all used up, thats fine, its a vette, not something really rare at all.(zora may well be a rare one). Its also likely that by 2031 the c9 z06 will be much better, and then Ill go for one of those.

We're not at the last of the real mohecans yet. The euros may be goign all hybrid at ferrari and lambo, but not even cali is banning pure ice before 2035, and in europe with the efules loophole its never.

As someone who foreswore american sportscars cars as being clumsy, and Gm in particular(due to bad expoerince) im really lookign forwards to buying team usa.
There is no reason we cannot make great cars here, and the euros are arrogant. Its unlikely the vette improved as it is, has the fit and finish of a euro car, but then I drive a lotus so can easily look past those things if the car simply drives great and by all accounts the z06 does.

 

One thing that might put a crimp in the projected production numbers of the C8 Z06 are the upcoming and confirmed models that are derivatives of the Z06 platform.

Namely, the ZR1 and the Zora.

There is only so much space and capacity in the production line at Bowling Green.

Lots of cars and trims for GM to build. And lets not forget the Corvette SUV ...

 

I’d be shocked if they built the SUV at BG.
ZR1 and Zora will definitely be low production and much of the assembly line usage will be sacrificed by the Stingray which will be getting a little long in the tooth by then with >100K produced already.

 

I was just thinking that the other day, too. There's probably an old Saturn or Pontiac, or Oldsmobile Plant somewhere they could resurrect.

 

Yah I agree. Bowling Green is really a one line factory. It makes every C8 variation on the same line at the same time. That will include the Eray when its ready and the Z06 now. But no way on the SUV. The Zora is probably less than 1000 cars of total production so they might farm it out like Ford did with the GT.

BG also has to make cars for foreign markets but that will make up for lessening Stingray demand in the coming years. They will be full up for a while.

 

Quick update specific to Charlotte. Recently, thieves have hit Carmel Estates and Foxcroft. The police actually apprehended a group in Foxcroft. Based on the details, as suggested by @Texas Forever, it sounds like they were coming back for their stashed loot and the cops were waiting for them. They jumped out of a stolen car, and tried to make a run for it, but were caught.

I heard an account about a resident at Quail Hollow who’s wife is so freaked out by the recent burglaries that he has hired an off-duty police officers to camp out in his driveway 24/7.

Lastly, I was talking to our alarm company head guy, and he says that after 15 years of hardly any activity, they’ve been inundated. He says that tons of clients are reaching out to upgrade their systems with additional glass breaks, motion sensors, and upgraded cameras.

 

I’m an idiot. Somehow I posted this to the wrong thread. So much for multitasking….


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Another data point on the C8 Z06 resale market (even pre 6 months of initial ownership)
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2023-chevrolet-corvette-z06-16/

135k MSRP

188k Hammer price


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