Ferrari F40 market analysis | Page 9 | FerrariChat

Ferrari F40 market analysis

Discussion in '288GTO/F40/F50/Enzo/LaFerrari/F80' started by dariedell, Feb 26, 2023.

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  1. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    19,256
    2M?
     
  2. Camlet1

    Camlet1 Formula 3

    May 3, 2014
    2,085
    UK
  3. Moopz

    Moopz F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 29, 2004
    5,554
    Orlando, FL
    Can't put that out there without confirming what it sold for.

    Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
     
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  4. Raff88

    Raff88 Rookie

    Nov 13, 2013
    23
    I can’t understand why isn’t possible to know the result of this auction.



     
  5. dariedell

    dariedell Formula Junior

    Jul 12, 2021
    325
    United States
    Full Name:
    Andrew Riedell
    I'd wager much closer to $3m (I don't know the answer). Extremely low miles for a Euro F40*, Prost connection, non-cat/non-adjust, Classiche, magazine feature, (partial) Schedoni luggage.

    *The description reads 'its odometer was replaced and changed from kilometres to miles' and later 'with its odometer showing just under 2,900 miles'. From that alone I can't be sure this isn't a TMU situation because I don't know what was done at the time of conversion. RM doesn't go out of their way to say "2,900 miles from new" anywhere, nor do they list the low mileage in the bullet points.

    The sealed bid format is a pretty new thing for RM and they've been doing it more and more since they introduced it a year or two ago. They've had success with it and it attracts bidders who want to buy as privately as possible. Lots of big numbers achieved so far. It's a blend between their typical auctions and their (growing) private sales business. Expect their use of this format to grow going forward, which of course is annoying for having discussions outside the circle of privileged information. They used to at least list whether the car sold or not; now they don't even do that.
     
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  6. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
    57,525
    Southern California
    Full Name:
    Joe Sackey
    #207 joe sackey, May 13, 2023
    Last edited: May 13, 2023
    I don't have the answer hence my question, but I can try to find out and if I do I'll certainly post if it's permissible.

    I do agree with Marcel's sentiments as made almost 1.5 years ago as being accurate for that time, of course things have leveled off significantly since.

    As regards his comment about a massive demand from North American buyers for Euro F40s, he's right, we went through our books and as if to underscore his point, the last 14 F40 sales we have made consist of a couple cars sold more than once consist of 8 Eu F40s and 6 USA F40s, so 57% of our F40 sales we have made involve Eu cars, the most recent 3 being the latter variant. I am surprised that it is not even more in favor of the Eu F40s given that there are 5 times as many available worldwide. Still this data shows that there is a healthy demand for the USA F40 usually by USA clients with significant USA collections.

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  7. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    So I am wrong, and derided, Marcel is also wrong as a result, but then confirms we are actually right! weird logic.

    Our resident self appointed expert seem to think they are the only one selling (other peoples) ROW F40s into the US, so their sole data is representative of the whole market.

    I recall quite clearly a quote they made on here a while back that they had no real interest in trading in ROW F40s and were happy to stick to the US spec version (when lauding them as usual at the time). Yet another U turn.

    I did not see Marcel update his quote above to say the market is a lot slower now for ROW cars going to the US in more recent times when he yet again liked one of my posts. He does not hand out such lightly on here, a man of few words.
     
  8. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    19,256
    If demand from usa buyers was equal do we agree that no more than 1 out of 5 f40 sales wld be usa spec?
     
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  9. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    Question for the original poster.

    How many of those 14 F40s sold above are shown in your analysis?
     
  10. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    A US based broker who has been involved in the sale Of US spec F40s only, until only more recent times is hardly an indicator of the overall market.

    Ask DK, the Hartleys etc etc how many US spec F40s they have sold in the states, compared to the number of ROW F40s they have sold into the states.

    There is no market for US spec F40s outside of the US so the answer is probably zero, compared to (using Marcels words) "massive" numbers.
     
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  11. rmolke85

    rmolke85 Formula Junior

    Mar 11, 2013
    755
    Ferrari just passed $50b in value with endless demand seemingly. Many more of the younger worldwide buyers are discovering the F40 as they get the means to entertain buying one. In the grand scheme of things, these cars are young.

    Carb Countach seem to be flying here very often and they have been available for import just as long. US Fuel Injected cars are more rare, but they don’t trade as much. Also it was Lamborghinis last car. Maybe ppl are thinking a bit differently about Euro to US spec cars at the top of the collecting ladder. As they get more expensive people become much more savvy.

    If you’re going to get the cars, get the purest spec that can be sold anywhere?? That might be a very real movement.
     
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  12. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    19,256
    So you disagree with my statement? Totally keeping price aside, the expectation if demand was equal shld be 1 out of every 5?
     
  13. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    If the eu cars were in fact better with a much bigger audience the usa cars shld be a fraction of the eu car, why arent they trading at a major discount?
     
  14. Marcel Massini

    Marcel Massini Two Time F1 World Champ
    Honorary

    Mar 2, 2005
    24,860
    Correct.
    NO market.

    Marcel Massini
     
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  15. Moopz

    Moopz F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 29, 2004
    5,554
    Orlando, FL
    I wouldn't say they are better, but I was looking for Euro because I strongly preferred the esthetics.

    In the US, the market is still pointed towards rarity and condition, so the highly original more-rare US cars will demand a premium over here.

    Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
     
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  16. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    #218 PAUL500, May 14, 2023
    Last edited: May 14, 2023
    It is all relative, every one of them is a great car regardless, it is simply a case that US buyers now have a much greater choice than they did for the first 25 years, coupled with a strong dollar in recent times which makes a ROW becoming more and more attractive to that market, and they are cheaper for now.

    US buyers are typically traditionalists, grey market cars have always been seen as lesser to a US market car, it's taken a few years for them to warm to ROW F40s but now that they have they are piling into the states.

    Rmolke85 gives a good comparison of a similar car from another marque.

    You have a lovely US spec F40, no one is knocking it, or all the others, but it now has greater and greater competition from the purer versions, its just the way people see things, often the earlier flawed version is the most desired.
     
  17. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    No, I disagree that the breakdown of sales made by one US based broker is representative of the actual sales of all F40s to US based buyers.
     
  18. Sturm59

    Sturm59 Formula Junior
    BANNED

    Apr 10, 2019
    338
    I can confirm that in Europe, NO ONE is interested in cars with US spec. Unless they are really really cheaper than Euro spec cars. There are of course cars for sale imported from the US but they hang around for a very long time on the ads.... At equal prices, no one looks at them. And this is valid for all makes and models. Even for a Mustang from the 60's, collectors prefer imported original models than newer imported models.
     
  19. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
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    And this just underscores how us demand outweighs the rest of the world by a lot, otherwise us cars wld be under 1m
     
  20. dariedell

    dariedell Formula Junior

    Jul 12, 2021
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    United States
    Full Name:
    Andrew Riedell
    None. If Joe has revealed the price of some of them in other threads, I probably have a few of them in my database. However, the F40 report freely up on my website is public auctions only when it comes to sales results.

    Despite the greater competition that the US-spec car has faced domestically in the last 5-10 years (which we both agree on), the spec has not been devalued at all, going from real-life sales results.
     
  21. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
    57,525
    Southern California
    Full Name:
    Joe Sackey
    Our USA vs Eu F40 sales split data was of course just ours to give an idea of the mixture of F40 variant sales in the USA at least in our case, we're well aware that numerous others sell F40s and the overall split might be different so we know our results aren't necessarily representative, but we are active in the market so the percentage is interesting, meanwhile we've actively sold Eu F40s for about 10 years, a bit more than only more recent times.

    UK dealers have no need to be active in the USA F40 market as we do, so they sell only Eu F40s into the States, whereas we sell both USA F40s and Eu F40s in the States.

    As it should be, because the USA F40 was made to conform to USA EPA & DOT mandates so it really belongs in the USA.

    I think you already have a few of them in your database, and I'd be happy to share others upon request.

    I agree the USA F40s values have held up well in the USA market, this supported by auction results and our private sales activity.
     
  22. PAUL500

    PAUL500 F1 Rookie

    Jun 23, 2013
    3,136
    Thanks for the confirmation, I am afraid this underscores the reason for my initial comments on this thread, that unless you are provided with sales figures from the far greater number of direct sales, rather than just auction results then it can never be an accurate representation of market values for F40s.

    This is not to undermine your hard work so far, just an honest appraisal of the situation. Virtually all the 14 sales just from one broker alone are missing, imagine how many others are not shown from all the euro and Japanese example sold directly and heading to the US alone, never mind those staying within the UK ,Europe and Japan.

    I also agree US spec examples are not dropping in value, that claim has never been made, however the ROW cars are rocketing in value now to catch up with them at a greater pace.

    US buyers for 25 years had access to just 200 odd F40s only, they now have a choice of 1300 odd.
     
  23. joe sackey

    joe sackey Five Time F1 World Champ

    May 23, 2006
    57,525
    Southern California
    Full Name:
    Joe Sackey
    Paul you make fair points.

    The problem with the online disclosure of our F40 sales results is, unlike auctions which are publicly disclosed, they all represent our business model of Private Treaty sales, which, as the name implies, are private, and exist because there are many people who are not interested in sharing how much they acquire or sell their F40s for. In fact in some instances non-disclosure is mandated in the sales agreement. That said, there are some instances where we are able to gain permission to publish the sales result which we have done in this thread and in numerous other threads. So, I agree, you will never have a total representation of market values for all F40 transactions, because despite all the F40 auction consignments, I do believe most sales of F40s happen privately.

    That said, from long-term experience in the market, I see that F40 auction results as shown in this thread and on www.classic.com roughly mirror the results we get privately, as agreed by others active in the F40 market such as James @ DK with whom I trade proprietary sales information regularly. With this in mind, I do think that a market analysis such as this one based on all auction results and the few known private sales results is indeed a very worthwhile endeavor, is representative of values, is fairly accurate, and is supremely helpful to a potential F40 buyer, an F40 seller, or an F40 owner wanting to track values, the groups of people it's relevant to.

    By the way, your statement that US buyers for 25 years had access to just 200 odd F40s only, they now have a choice of 1300 odd, is of course true, and it only serves to underscore the fact that US F40s are incredibly resilient as far as values for them in the USA are concerned.
     

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