Thanks to the USD going up against EUR, it's 2.59M$ now. ;):)
It is common knowledge that the public auction market for collector vehicles represents roughly 10% of the total market in the West. This makes relying on auction results a statistical sampling of the market rather than an all-encompassing view of it. Nevertheless, sampling is how nearly all statistical analysis happens in any field, as the totality of most data sets are almost never available. Nobody in the world has access to every F40 sales figure from dealers and private treaty - let alone for every other model on top of that. If I obtained permission to broadcast some from Joe, Marcel, and some dealers I know, the picture would still be incomplete - and that's fine. Opinion polls, medical studies, corporate market research, etc. all operate via sampling. The key thing with any of these is to avoid sampling bias, in other words, making sure you have no reason to believe the sample set differs materially from the population set in anything but size. When that control is covered, the sample data is quite useful. The sample set examined here (auction results) indicates a price premium on US-spec F40's, among many other (less controversial, apparently) things. I have no reason to believe the population set (auctions + everything else) tells a different story from that, but I want to be clear grammatically that I am not saying that I *do* have a reason to believe that they *do* tell the same story. Your implication seems to be that you believe the stories are different, and that private sales data somehow reverses or at least closes the value gap between specs, making the sample set not representative of the population set. Is this implication based on an inside line of data you have? Critically, people in the trade of classic cars use auction results as indicators in the market, to see what people are paying (or not paying) these days for the cars they trade in. It might only be 10% of the market but it's the most open 10% and often a canary in the coal mine for incoming market moves. Even dealers and brokers with their own considerable books of business like Joe, DK, Curated, etc. keep an eye on auction results to guide pricing for cars they specialize in themselves. John Temerian is always talking about Countach results at auction. I've spoken to multiple dealers who keep a browser tab of classic.com or even just Bring a Trailer open at all times to keep up to date on the models they have in front of them on their showroom floor. For full transparency, I also have spoken to some dealers who rely almost entirely on their own books of business and don't really care about auction results. What is your source for this? Auction results do not show this. https://datadriven.autos/market-analysis/ferrari-f40/#euro-vs-us-spec-prices
The thread did go off on a tangent as they often do, in this case the cost differentials between US and ROW spec prices, however as you say sample sets must represent the whole element being studied. Yours is a market analysis of auction results only, with a handful of direct sales in the mix. If as you say auction results represent 10% of the market then for yours to be a sample set of the entire market it should contain 90% direct sales and 10% auction results not the other way around. Auctions again as you state only represent 10% of the market at any one time, and as it is widely known people get auction fever on the day which skews results, also they have many outliers, such as the recent sale of the yellow F40 ex race car which sold for vastly more than anyone on here predicted at the time. Just that car alone massively skews recent auction results because in such it is compared directly to the GOATS that have also sold at auction in recent years, however in the real F40 open market they are chalk and cheese. With regard the big jump in ROW F40 prices, not that long ago you could get a nice F40 for quite a bit under £1 million in the UK, the first car to publically break that barrier was itself an outlier in the market, known as Blu F40 it was a white LM clone from Japan, purchased in the UK from Joe Macari not that long ago for around £700k it was taken back to standard but painted blue, it sold at auction a few years ago for over £1 million, then recently did not reach reserve for over £2 million. It is now for sale at around that sum. That is for an example that is not representative of the market due to its past life, the good ones have faired even better. I am sure someone like Marcel who knows the market far better than me can confirm the rapid rise in values of ROW F40s in the last 5 years, I simply observe the overall trend of asking price rises on direct sales as they as you say represent 90% of the market. When an ROW has come to open market in recent times, it's always for quite a bit more than the last comparable one, and it does not hang around for long.
You speak of "the big jump in ROW F40 prices" & "the rapid rise in values of ROW F40s in the last 5 years" but consider that USA F40s have also jumped or risen significantly in the past 5 years. Using standard unmodified F40s that exist in their original red color as a basis, the highest auction result posted for Eu/ROW F40s has been that of 94528 for $2,750,000 at the beginning of 2022 @ 1.5 years ago, with all subsequent results for Eu/ROW F40s being significantly less than that, therefore, that upward trend has cooled in the past year, and this is supported by the private and direct sales market as we know it to be. USA F40s on the other hand have posted numerous results over $3m in the past year, and the upward trend has also cooled with these cars also if you consider the latest auction results in chronological order of 87041 for $3,965,000 in 2022, 91097 for $3,855,000 in 2022, 85596 for $3,250,000 in 2022, 92189 for $3,135,000 in 2023, and 86620 $3,085,000 in 2023. No question the gap between the variants has closed in the last 5 years, but there is still a significant gap as the numbers show.
when US good US cars were $1.3M, good EU cars were $900k. has the spread really changed much? 2.2 vs 3.2 right now?
I was replying to Andrews questions, which were nothing to do with ROW v US spec F40s. Every F40 sale will be different as very few will be like for like with regards to miles, condition, maintenance, history, famous owner, concours winner etc etc so just to compare sold prices between the two different types is daft. A detailed spreadsheet for each example with those important elements graded in columns and the sale price only at the end could really show the spread.
I wouldn't call this a tangent, this is market analysis as is the intention of the thread! In fact, I said there were zero direct sales in the report. Nevertheless, as I said before, that does not preclude a report based on auction results from being representative of the market as a whole, unless one believes there to be a sampling bias - a reason to believe that private sales data differs materially from public sales data, which is why I asked in my last post if you had a data-driven basis for this assumption. If we were talking about the 250 GTO, I would absolutely caveat a report based only on auction results, because I *know* the sample set to deviate from the population set. The highest auction sale ever for that model is $48.4m, because very few sell publicly, and we haven't seen one in years. Among the ones that have sold privately, I know of multiple that have exceeded that amount by at least $20m, so the auction side isn't telling the whole story. This is a model with extremely low liquidity on the public market, with only 2 sales events in the last decade. Anytime you are working with such a low quantity of data, you are going to have trouble getting a sample set that represents the population. The F40, on the other hand, does not suffer from this issue. Why would auction fever affect US-spec examples and Euro-spec examples differently, if that phenomenon is to blame for the price variance between the specs? If it's a cultural difference between the US and Europe, that difference is controlled for in my chart that compares the specs only within North America. If your point is simply that auction results as a whole are irrational compared to private sales results, check out the final chart in my report, which compares auction results to asking prices. It's a loose comparison that, as noted, requires much deeper analysis, but from the eye test there is no significant difference. The July 2021 sale of #80746 for £1,000,500 is included in my report alongside the rest of the data (see pic). Plucking out individual data events to make a point is iffy when we can just use the whole auction data set all together. Regardless, note that when that result happened, the US-spec model was also seeing a jump in price. The data, as a whole, does not show the Euro-spec model catching up in value over the last three years - in fact the gap is wider now than before COVID. The average lines that you see entering the chart on the left side (so, Jan 2020) are lagging averages that reflect prices achieved in 2019 and even dipping into 2018. Each part of this that is true for the Euro-spec model is also true for the US-spec model. As of a few weeks ago it's now #93308 @ $2,930,000 USD on 30 Apr 2023 at InsiderAuctions, if this result is real money and if the car even met reserve (something I have been unable to confirm despite contacting IA directly*). Nevertheless this is one data point among many and your larger point stands. *I haven't decided yet how I am going to handle this auction when I update my report after Villa Erba, if I cannot confirm the result. Current rolling averages for US-spec and Euro-spec are $3.03m vs. $2.37m USD, respectively, using the lagging average methodology as in my report. Note that these are raw averages unadjusted for mileage, which would close the gap somewhat as discussed in a post last week. You're in the market analysis thread! Image Unavailable, Please Login
I know but after 10 pages of reading, in the end, we are not making progress and I find that publishing only prices means nothing because a price depends on a lot of factors..... One car is not the other . When I see Joe putting up links of cars he considers 'interesting' but aren't even in their original color anymore or have a lot of miles, these may not be of interest to someone else....
I have put before the readers of this thread my views, and the support for such views, it is for them to decide who's are more valid. If they believe a sample set of just auction results (in which that medium itself only covers the quoted 10% of actual sales) is truly representative of the whole market then that is up to them, now that they are fully aware of the fact they can make their own minds up. If they also believe that a market which was restricted for the first 25 years to just a 15% subset will not see the additional premium they commanded narrow as a result of that restriction now being lifted, again their call. We seem to be going around in circles, this is a thread that needs revisiting in a few years to see how it all panned out.
For those who don't have enough money to buy a complete F40, they can start with this...and buy the rest later https://www.f40only.com/fr/stock/?&SingleProduct=728 It is also possible to buy a little "souvenir" : https://www.f40only.com/fr/pieces-introuvables/
that is basically the case at this time. i have been observing and active in the car markets for about 40 years - either for myself, or for friends and family. i dont profess to know everything, but i have seen that depending on the era, the most powerful economy and currency, is the one that sets the tone for the car (and many other) markets. so for example in the 80's when Japan was the strong market, they are the ones who bought cars and the market tilted towards the makes and models they liked and they were priced accordingly. today, and for the last 5 years or so, it is the american economy and currency that have been strong (most of the time), and the rise in vintage car prices are almost entirely driven by what the american market wants. (which is why paul's forex graphs are relevant) so it stands to reason, to me at least, that during this era, the usa f40 version benefitted by this. even tho you could import a euro version, most people just did not want to deal with the hassles. and the price delta was not really giviing enough incentive to do so. lately that is changing and many more people are realizing that it is not so difficult or expensive. it has been my opinion for a while that the usa and row cars would eventually converge, for like kind cars.....and there is the rub....finding like for like usa and row cars selling at the same time in the same venues, is very unusual and unlikely. hence the many threads debating this topic ! anyway, i believe you are entirely correct - the usa market sets the tone for vintage car prices right now and as long as that is the case, usa cars are likely to maintain an edge over row's.
That result will be interesting. 17k km car with full repaint/PPF from Bonfatti in Modena. Estimate between $2.4 and 3.1M. Let's see how important original paint is... Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
People here make the market, this is a very powerful forum. what threads say, investors follow. Hedge fund investors follow and buy investments based on F chat opinions, it's been that way for a while. So, all of a sudden hey! USA F40 are now in demand and sure enough...
so the US market hasn't realized you cld buy an EU F40 for the past 7 to 8 yrs? thats the bit that makes no sense to me. the market is VERY efficient like that. and the more and more i look the more and more eu cars have been .7 of US cars for a long time.
An award-winning one no less. I'm happy just to sell them. That's a dismissive view, in fact this thread has been very helpful to F40 Buyers, Sellers and Owners alike (ask me how I know) and will always be a rolling updated resource of continuously added F40 market data, invaluable and IMO the premier F40 market analysis extant, created & maintained by not inconsiderable effort & due diligence, worth checking in on regularly, however, I guess we'll see you in a few years then? Original paint with the weave on a low miles F40 can bring a big premium. However, in the this ever-evolving market with younger buyers with a different outlook, in one single similar instance, I have sold a Eu/ROW car into the USA that had been similarly restored & repainted under the auspices of Ferrari SpA (except in our case the maker used factory affiliate Carrozzeria Zanasi Maranello), and I recall it brought the same as any other similar miles F40 would. The view of the new-generation current owner is that his F40 is not only 'as new' as done by the factory, but is finished to an acceptably higher standard than they were originally, and, because the paint is not original he has no hesitation using the car often. Again, just one single similar instance and one owner's view, potential buyers for the Villa Erba car may think completely differently. We started dealing with Eu F40s @ 10 years ago basically as soon as we could bring them in, the notion that people have just realized that they can be imported isn't accurate. .7 has been the formula in the past, it's more like .8 now so the gap has closed in recent years, but any predictions that it will completely close to par, usually by owners of Eu/ROW F40s and other proponents of that variant, are pure speculation. Meanwhile for those looking for information on the ex-Alain Prost 83249, my RM contact alerted me to the fact that it did not sell and remains unsold as of this posting. Image Unavailable, Please Login
I am going no where Joseph, but unlike yourself once I have put forward my views and supporting information I know when to take a back seat and let others have a say. Do not worry though, now Ross has joined the discussion you can multi quote everything he says again instead, as we all know it's your favorite tool when talking down to fellow fchat members and you do feel the need on having the last word every time, so for old times sake fill your boots one more time........
Paul lighten up, I was just kidding, I had little doubt you'll be here reading all the posts, and I for one enjoy our discussions. I'm actually getting the reverse of that from prospective F40 buyers these days, even in the USA. Besides the 2 RM Sothebys Eu/ROW F40s available, there are a number of Eu/ROW examples out there advertised and available, here's a selection: www.bellsportandclassic.co.uk speedmastercars.com simonfurlonger.co.uk www.mmc-paris.com USA F40s are a bit sparse in the advertised market today.
So now people want a less rare Euro car or let me guess, you have a big deal working on a Euro car you convinced the buyer that would be a better option for him (and it very may well be).
What's happened in the last 5-10 years is, F40 buyers are much more knowledgeable about the cars and have a good idea of values and all the variants before they contact as specialist such as myself, so they come to me with a mandate shaped by budget or preferred variant. What we do in our role is try to find a great car for a great price that fits their already established parameters, so any convincing will be between individual cars that are the choices available, but not between variants. Trying to convince someone who wants a USA car to buy an Eu/ROW car doesn't work, because USA cars are mostly sought to augment a USA-only collection, the main reason we still sell USA cars. The same is obviously true vice versa, a guy set on an Eu/ROW car has little interest in the USA car because it's too expensive to him or he doesn't like the look. You have to remember, for the guy in the USA, one major factor that interests them in a less rare Eu/ROW car is, it's comparatively cheaper.
Joe. I know buddy You sure like to grandstand and monetize off every post hoping to get a potential sale, I respect you and everyone here btw and all comments, but man....