Ferrari Values 360/430/458 +

I tell everyone we are headed for some unstable times. Used car market will be first effected followed by real estate. Hope to get a deal shortly…..


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It's already happening up here. Inventory is growing. Dealer lots are full with lease returns, dealers are not selling at the volumes they where, they have floor plan interest fees to pay etc. 10% interest is not a joke.Chrysler has the most stale inventory is seems. Deep discounts are on the horizon.

 

incorrect- and I now work for CJDR -- still crushing, no stale inventory at all.

 

K..noticed I said UP HERE..different country. We do not have 30 year fixed home mortgages. We have 5 year fixed. Many 2019 mortgages will be coming due next year.

The current 2.5 interest rate these people are paying will jump to 7%. Disposable income for many will be destroyed. Thus car sales and other toys slow to an almost complete stop.

There are other places in the world other than the USA.

 

We see increasing levels of inventory and prices will be pushed lower for sure [emoji106]. Those helocs and dealer credit lines are not cheap anymore..


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Most older Ferrari owners like to tinker. Many newer Ferrari owners are heavily leveraged.

 

Agree there will be a big drop in “high” production exotics (over 8,000), which shouldn’t have gone up anyway, but not in blue chip collectibles

 

The idea that recessions don't affect the wealthy is simply not true. Just look at what happened to high end car markets as well as other collectibles during past recessions. Even GTOs plunged during the 1990-91 bust. The tech bust of 2000 caused another big dump. In 2009, you could buy a scud off dealer floors for a discount. It's a behavior thing. When the value of your assets is plunging, you spend less. Declining prices then make everyone reluctant to buy a falling knife. It becomes a negative feedback loop. Conversely, a rising market motivates buyers to come in before prices get higher and they often borrow to do it laying the foundation for an eventual bust. A significant percentage of modern exoitc car buyers finance or lease. If just 10-20% of these buyers disappear, the market collapses.

BTW, I spent 40 years in a collectible business. I observed that softness in collectible markets often preceded recessions. Collectibles, exotic cars, etc. are the ultimate discretionary purchases.

Dave

 

HT/Dave,

Aaaaaaaamen, brother!

Even different segments of the exotic car market are effected differently.

Recent examples: Was about 11 months ago the crypto market took a dive (ponzi scheme of Sam Bankman-Fried collapsing) - and the used Lamborghini market took the biggest hit. That's the favorite brand of the crypto-punks, who were no longer "paper millionaires" - and it's hard to live out of your Lambo - so there was a fire sale. About two months later several banks got wobbly (fall of Silicon Valley Bank, etc.) and that impacted the exotic car market more broadly to take the steam out of rapidly rising prices from the bubble of The Fed pumping inflationary money into the system.

Kevin

 

Ultimately what happens to the market depends as much on the narrative that takes hold in the community as it does on simple supply and demand. Prices recovered well after the 07-08 recession, with investment grade cars in particular being an effective storage of wealth and enjoyment grade exotics regaining previous prices.

I think we'll see an extended soft market with some deals to be had from people that have to dump a car for other reasons, but most owners with past experience in mind just waiting it out if they have a well-sorted vehicle.

The new vehicle market might be a lot harder with brands like Ferrari that can't adjust downmarket without crushing their brand equity. Merc for example can just reduce their higher end production and build more entry level cars.

 

I can see a big shift away from displays of wealth, especially with the way the world is turning. Fancy cars, watches, handbags etc could become kyptonite. Especially in the overly liberal/socialist type cites.

This could put heavy down pressure on sales as people will second guess what image they are trying to portray to others.

Vintage blue chip collector cars will trade like art peices. (They kinda already do)

With social media seemingly showing "everybody is rich but you"..any kind of display of wealth could really put you in a spot of danger. Just my thoughts..the world is VERY different.

 

Apparently in Italy, most Ferrari owners drive their car in rallies and such. The risk of kidnapping otherwise is high.

 

Several years ago, the father of a colleague drove his family home from a restaurant in FL in an s-class. A van followed him home, tied them up and ransacked the house.

Not many people notice my titanio 575. I feel more paranoid driving my red 430. I remember some guy following me around my local town for a while. I just pulled over and did a u turn to lose him. Probably just an enthusiast, but i prefer not to take chances

 

yeah it's all changed a lot now, it basically sucks. security is extremely important

 

I found a tracker stuck under the chassis of a Rolls Royce. We called the owner..who then called the police. Police said they probably weren't really after the car..but wanted to know where the owners lived. Possible set up for a home burglery.

You really must be careful where your strut your wealth. You can become a target.

 

It's easy to be a poor Ferrari owner. Boy those burglars would be disappointed!

 

good cars are healthy
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2003-ferrari-360-spider-50/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2004-ferrari-360-spider-73/

 

Or the police were the ones who put it there….

 

Not in this case. That said, we have worked with local authorities in the past.

 

Edit:The initial MSRP for a F360 may have been $139K.

 

Well….there is still the Ferrari…

 

No problem if it has a stick.

 

430's are down at £55k or so here in the UK, it's an absolute steal

575's, 458's and ff's are great value

pista's selling below list too (I remember being laughed at on here for saying the spec will overtake the pista!)

360's seem to be holding