Ferrari F40 market analysis

Good evening,
I want to buy, can give me in PM your details?
Thanks

 

I was under the impression that 57495 had 'skipped' the Federalization due to the circumstances of the first owner, Mr. W...

 

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The car itself shows that it was Federalized, in a fashion.

Ferrari South and Dick Manning, names from the past.

 

Given it has almost 10k miles the 2024 bid seems more market-correct than the 2022 bid which seemed to be high.

 

2022 represented what I'd describe as a frothy market.

 

It been a frothy market now for 10 years.. I would say it’s a normal market

 

You missed the point, we're not talking about the market overall, were speaking of the late 2022 F40 market, specifically, 2 results over Pebble Beach weekend which attained numbers which have not been sustainable as we have seen from last weekend's auction result, and many others in 2023 and 2024.

A frothy market is characterized by overconfident investors that ignore market fundamentals and bid up an asset's price beyond the asset's quantitative worth. Froth is often the precursor to a market bubble, which occurs when price inflation grows to the point that asset prices are unsustainably high.

A normal market is more predictable, in keeping with other market comps, and and with estimates that are usually on-target.

 

As a price check, my mate John Collins has a 6,000 miles F40 for sale www.instagram.com asking £2,500,000 which is about $3,182,750 today.

 

Has the premium for US spec cars mostly evaporated?

 

Using comparable mileage & condition cars, there's still a significant value delta, but in my experience with trading the cars, it has narrowed over the past decade.

 

The first two cars above sold within $50k of each other and, at least by own definition, are both low mileage examples (<10k miles).

I guess the market defines it differently and doesn’t consider one driven only ~200 miles per year as being ‘low’. Madness.

 

For a gauge on how mileage and owners affects values.Tom Hartley Jnr only sells exceptional examples.. He currently has 3 examples
2500 km... 5200 km and 21,500 km... the huge price difference underscores these factors
https://www.tomhartleyjnr.com/current-stock/

 

He does have some excellent F40s, speaking of just the non-cat non-adjust F40s which we tend to focus on, at the moment there are some nice examples with Talacrest, Simon Furlonger and DK Engineering as well. Generally there are a significant number of F40 choices in the market. We can offer several F40s, including a hallowed Lexan Sliding Windows example recently refreshed by Ferrari which has to be one of if not the best example on the planet.

It's well-established that the lower the mileage the higher the price, with the low mileage cars effectively being confined to being investment pieces at this point, as such, the majority of F40 buyers we encounter are asking for something they can add miles to without concern for depreciation, which means over 10k miles / 16k kilometers.

 

The ideas thrown around that 1,500 miles is "grade A" and higher milelage , (choke) is 11k miles, on a 36 year old ferrari is "grade B" demonstrates how irrational and moronic the market is.

I have as much in common with teaspoon collectors as preople who prize Ferraris that are afraid to drive and trailer them to car shows to show off an odometer with 1,500 miles on it. As my friend Jim Glickenhaus says, "not driving your ferrari is like not havig sex with your model girlfriend so she will be a virgin for the next guy".

I have 26 exotics and 4 full time mechanics the one common
link is the cars that dont get driven are a mess. I just bought a world record price 60s sportcar that was 100% perfect trailered to events for last decade and it took 6 months to sort out.

It is a total fiction that a car that is never driven is better than a car regualry driven and serviced. Its moronic that our hobby rewards this nonesense

No one ever asks how many miles were put on my 1950s Ferrari prototype Ferrari team car that raced at the Mille Miglia and LeMans.

No one asks the mileage of really valuable cars. This nonesene should be shamed by our hobby.

I cant imagine desiring a car that made me feel bad when i drove it

The sooner the hobby matures the better


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^ well said!

 

Well-said, and I am hearing these sentiments more these days.

 

Whats the inconsistancy in my breaths? Did I say I paid a world record for miles? No. Actually sitting here i dont even recall the mileage on the car i bought. I dont know if I ever checked. I dont recall not bc Im ignorant of market forces but rather It was a rare 60s car and mileage on this model is not at all factor at all in the market. The market value was based on alleged condition and superior quality, fantastic color, rare attributes, and of the restoration and reputation of the restorer. And the point was the car, although cosmetically perfect was a car driven less than 100 miles in a decade and was trailered from place to place for a decade, and it was a mess mechanically., as almost any car so treated almost without fail.

Of course I acknowledge market forces and that on 1980s, 90s and 2000 model street Ferraris and Porsches mileage matters in value in the market. Yes to each her own. My point is it is it lacks rational basis as we all know some markets do. Yes I acknowledge some people seek out cars to brag they have 1,500 miles. And I have as much in common with those people a someone who collect silver teaspoons. There are people who get little to no enjoyment from driving the cars they own and instead bragging to others about miles or speculate on how a market will forever value this.

In no way am i criticizing your investment, on ultra low mile F40 as an investment, as mileage greatly impacts the present market of F40s. The market is real and its only fiscally responsible to pay attention to it.

My point is the hobby should shame this lack of rationality, and I hope for the sake of car lovers matures. Why? Because It is a terrible shame and irony to love a car like an F40, love the way it makes you feel driving it and seeking a model you feel bad about driving bc of numbers on an odometer. As low mileage often doesnt equate to condition it makes very little semse to value the state of an odometer reading.

I have shamed friends and convinced them of such utter lunacy and to sell cars that they cant drive. A ferrari you feel guilty for driving? To me its utterly insane and very rarely if at all relates to mechanical fitness.

My firm belief is that the market matures as I believe there is more enjoyment and value if this goes away as it does with really valuable cars (not cars worth seven figures, but cars worth eight figures, mid to high eight figures or the few worth nine.

Anyone care about the odometer of the SLR that sold? of course not.

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"My firm belief is that the market matures as I believe there is more enjoyment and value if this goes away . . .
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I ment to type "My hope is that the market matures. . . " on cars like the F40. Maybe it will not and will forever value mileage.

But I hope Because the car is utterly spectacular thing to experience on the road, in or out of the cockpit.

I cant think of a car older than the early 60s were mileage was the major factor in value. (although im sure i could think of an exception if i thought hard enouph) Maybe the market will mature as the cars get older. Or maybe they become garage art and this odometer value sticks. Hope for the hobby it doesnt but also understand those investors in odometer readings hoping for different.

I can imagine the market valuing F40 relative in the market in paramount not for the lack of use by rather for the driving experience, events available, and progressing to higher relative value for this reason primarily.



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I ment to type "My hope is that the market matures. . . " on cars like the F40. Maybe it will not and will forever value mileage.

But I hope Because the car is utterly spectacular thing to experience on the road, in or out of the cockpit.

I cant think of a car older than the early 60s were mileage was the major factor in value. (although im sure i could think of an exception if i thought hard enouph) Maybe the market will mature as the cars get older. Or maybe they become garage art and this odometer value sticks. Hope for the hobby it doesnt but also understand those investors in odometer readings hoping for different.

I can imagine the market valuing F40 relative in the market in paramount not for the lack of use by rather for the driving experience, events available, and progressing to higher relative value for this reason primarily.



Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat[/QUOTE]
If we roll back the dice 25 years, most if not all of the 50,60,70's Ferraris were actually driven, and most have been restored, that is just part of that era of those cars. nothing wrong or right with that, but I imagine, if say a 250 swb popped up with 2,000 original miles and had say 1 owner from new, and was perfect in every aspect. it would probably break all records for that car.. but they were all driven and restored to the most.
My first F40 I bought was back in 1999, the first question I asked from the seller was miles, roll forward now to today and the last one I bought last year the same questions, miles, owners.. provenance.
People enjoy their cars in different ways, the same for every asset class, nothing is right or wrong.. if we all liked the same things, life would be very boring.
I like nothing more than looking at my collection.. but not driving them.. but thats just my preference.. The Delta has not changed and as Joe pointed out he has several cars for around 1.6 million.... so the drivers out there can enjoy a cheap F40.. but if you want say THJ 2000 mile car, its more than double. That is the market we are in and nothing will change that..