812 Replacement Rumors

Speciale and Pista Spider is what he said.

And the two others where the loss is attributable to TM extras.

How much money do calculate that you have made by not buying a new Ferrari?


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I know you said VS but if you can buy a Speciale with no prior buying history that really counts as a standard purchase I think. There are also other brands where I bought standard cars and they went up depending on timing - most recently during the Covid period. For example Range Rovers and Defenders. The immutable truth is that demand and supply always work, almost perfectly. So, the general rule is that for cars available to everybody, quickly and without restriction, they will go down in value - which is the basic point being made.

But there are things that alter that equation. If more people want to buy the car than the factory can supply in its lifetime, prices will increase - whether VS, limited, whatever. And the reverse is also true, whether VS, limited etc. The only thing that ‘limited’ does is significantly increase confidence that demand will outstrip supply, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the past, limited cars were considered extreme and did not command price premiums - 964 RS is a good example.

Then there is the timing point. If demand outstrips supply early in a car’s life, there will be a backlog. And for some people life is just too short to wait, so cars like PuroSangue trade over list because there are people who want the car now, can’t get it now, and with few owners prepared to sell them. In time that should calm down when somebody else brings out something that people want more and the supply of used Purosangue increases. Expect prices to drop somewhat. Or if nobody else brings out a car as desirable to that group and used supply increases only slightly, prices will remain strong and perhaps even above list. You could have one view on that, someone else a different and equally legitimate one. Time will tell but before that it’s only opinion.

I used to sell a brand of car that was withdrawn from the market. Very mundane but reliable cars and low price. They had a very particular niche market and customers loved them. Three years after the brand stopped selling, the latest cars (now three years old) were selling at 25% above their new list. Demand was still strong and supply was absent.

Always demand and supply. Or perhaps better to say perceived demand and supply early on, true demand and supply after that. ‘Limited’ is only relevant in the way it affects demand and supply. Remember, they couldn’t sell the McLaren F1 when it was released. Yet if buyers could see the future they would have built and sold 50 times what they did. Same for the 964 RS etc. When the 996 GT3 RS was launched, very few people ordered them and they were not in any way limited. They are trading way above list today and have never been much below it. There are so many example of cars that have done that, at least for some period of their life.

Almost any interesting car that is in good condition, sold new before 1990, would sell above its retail price today. Why? Most of them are terrible to drive really. It’s because there is a nostalgia that drives demand and the supply is a fraction of what it was originally.

One thing that is interesting to consider is inflation. Much of the world is developing strongly in economic terms - the so-called BRIC countries for example. This means that there is more demand for scarce resources, over the life of these cars inflation should be very strong. Will it be as strong as the last 50 years? Maybe. But if so, that will ensure that values of all cars will go up. They say in property that what’s important is location, location, location. But that’s wrong. 1. Timing 2. Finance and only 3. Location. In a bad market, even the best properties go down. And in a good one, even the worst go up. So timing is more important than location. Same for cars. Timing is more important than the quality or desirability of the vehicle. Some people bought the F40 in 1990 at £1m. Far above its list. It then fell to below list for a period. And is now around £1.5-£2m. Same car, only the timing changed.

For the 812 GTS, if the F167 GTS has a manually removable targa, or a cloth roof, or doesn’t even exist, these are all factors that will affect demand and supply for the 812 GTS. In my view those are all unlikely but could happen.

Nevertheless, the likelihood is that you are correct - the GTS, the F167 will likely depreciate. But how much and when is completely unknown. And when it will head back up again, if at all, is also unknown. And just because it is not a limited car does not, from history, mean it will certainly depreciate heavily or even at all. If you perfectly know demand and perfectly know supply, you will be able to work it out exactly. But only then. So people have to work out their own buying strategy based on what they think and hope their ownership of the car justifies the cost they expect. If they get it wrong and it costs much more and they are unprepared, well, the world has seen that sort of thing many times before and will do again. As ever, buyer beware!

(Apologies, these points are aimed at general discussion, not just a response to your posts. Cheers)

 

812 elegant GT vs F157 sporty aggressive F12 Pininfarina Daytona.
I am hoping we will be surprised by production - editions.

 

I bought my 812 GTS new. Sold it later for 10% over what I paid (including taxes). So there’s that

 

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If the

If the F167 resembles this one, I think Ferrari management will have more than enough reasons to fire Mr. Manzoni.

 

Lol.

But, well said!

 

Really?!! Do you think a 250 GTO retro design like those ‘continuation’ cars built by random garages is better, and worthy of a world class design centre?

 

I’m not sure I even know which one the Vantage is but I’d guess this won’t look like one.

 

My last posts about some details of the F167's rear design, such as the lip spoiler, reflect only what I would like to see in a future F167 with cleaner lines.
Regarding this last design that I criticized, I did so because it is at the opposite of what I think should be a Ferrari GT V12. Although I don't intend to impose on anyone what I would like the F167 to be, if Ferrari presented in Miami something like what appears in this post , it seems to me that it would lose many of the customers who currently own Gts V12.

 

Very nice!

Along the same lines of the angled ‘targa hoop’ but with some flying buttresses and so approaching the shape of the ‘backyard’ cars…
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…last, last kick at the can:
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I think the car—especially the front—will be quite nice. From this picture it looks to have smooth fender contours but still manages to look muscular as the body side grows out from the belt line quite significantly and is very rounded, sort of like the 348/355.
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As for the back, I think the tail end—we’ve seen part of it already—will look nice but the area behind the B-pillar is what seems to be the crucial aspect and we’ll see what that looks like in a few weeks.

 

Think it will have the rounded tail lights or the 296 ones?

 

Agree…. After 27 years ,several dozens ( bakers dozens ) of Ferraris , both limited and non - I agree …..

 

For many, and also for me, it would be a great disappointment if the F167 did not, as a whole, present a design worthy of a successor to the 812 SF, but that is something we will have to wait and see. However, your analysis of the mule and the consequent assumption that the front and tail-end will be nice, has already given me greater peace of mind about what the F167 will be like.

 

In spite of where released I think it a tragedy to call this car the America. I just can’t believe that is possible. Antithetical to brand and origin and overly general also.

 

A number of Ferrari's have been call America or California, Daytona etc But to me as this is set at this point to be the last NA front engine V12 model range it should relate to Italy

 

As you know, the front of a car today, with all the standards is the hardest thing to do. Everything works in 167, for a specific reason that we'll talk about after the presentation. The highlight is the 3/4 rear... I hope they will keep on the production version the superb originality concerning the bagde at the front !!!

 

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Always appreciate your input, @day355 !!

So, I’m thinking the badge at the front is maybe somehow back-lit through the black ‘Daytona’ band at the front?

And the interesting 3/4… anything you’ve seen on here that looks like what we’ll see next month? Wink if you do, LOL.

 

We all know

Alternate theory: It’s the fact that it’s debuting at an F1 race that portends the name. If that’s the case, and the name is racing derived, then what are some potential name candidates?

 

Imola, Mugello, Fiorano, MM. Monza and TdF were probably used too recently. Targa Florio (TF?) would be cool. Le Mans would work, particularly in light of 2023. Monaco/Monte Carlo have been suggested as candidates.

Daytona seems unlikely give the SP3, but it is another track in Florida. And given the styling cues...

Am I correct that we learned the name of the PS before the reveal last year?

 

leMans make more sense for F250 because of both f250 and 499 being v6 hybrids

 

I think u may be onto something here : )

 

Fun discussion / interesting out of all the people who have seen the car - very few post.
Next Daytona - 296 Roma Puro all similar rear lights.